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Leading Off:

NC-06: This is super strange. The Republican State Leadership Committee, which is tasked with helping the GOP win state legislative races, for some bizarre reason funneled $75,000 to a super PAC to help Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger, Jr. win a runoff against pastor Mark Walker in a safely Republican seat in North Carolina. The reason is pretty simple, though: Berger is the son of state Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger, Sr., who is also the immediate past chair of the RSLC.

So just to be clear, a major GOP organization diverted precious resources from its mission to help the offspring of its former leader in a race where nothing is at stake. I'm sure donors are thrilled about that.

2Q Fundraising:

CO-Sen: Cory Gardner (R): $2.71 million raised, $3.4 million cash-on-hand

HI-Sen: Brian Schatz (D-inc): $820,000 raised

MN-Sen: Al Franken (D-inc): $3.3 million raised, $5 million cash-on-hand

SD-Sen: Mike Rounds (R): $625,000 raised, $775,000 cash-on-hand; Larry Pressler (I): $39,000 raised, $57,000 cash-on-hand

SC-Gov: Nikki Haley (R-inc): $1 million raised, $4.5 million cash-on-hand

AZ-01: Ann Kirkpatrick (D-inc): $420,000 raised, $1.3 million cash-on-hand

AZ-02: Ron Barber (D-inc): $550,000 raised, $1.55 million cash-on-hand

CA-21: Amanda Renteria (D): $408,000 raised

CA-31: Pete Aguilar (D): $416,000 raised, $326,000 cash-on-hand

GA-12: John Barrow (D-inc): $580,000 raised, $1.9 million cash-on-hand

IA-03: Staci Appel (D): $425,000 raised, $725,000 cash-on-hand

IL-17: Cheri Bustos (D-inc): $482,000 raised, $1.47 million cash-on-hand

MI-01: Dan Benishek (R-inc): $487,000 raised, $942,000 cash-on-hand

NY-18: Nan Hayworth (R): $256,000 raised (plus $500,000 loan)

NY-23: Tom Reed (R-inc): $660,000 raised, $1.3 million cash-on-hand

Senate:

GA-Sen: A flurry of polls taken right after the GOP primary found Rep. Jack Kingston with a dominant advantage over businessman David Perdue, but then Perdue dropped an internal that had him up 45-44 two weeks ago, and Kingston never rebutted the results. Now we've got a new InsiderAdvantage survey that shows a similarly tight race, with Kingston ahead 43-41. But bear in mind that InsiderAdvantage was the second-worst firm in Nate Silver's old pollster ratings, better only than the execrable Zogby Interactive, so don't bank on these numbers for much.

LA-Sen: Rasmussen: Mary Landrieu (D-inc): 46, Bill Cassidy (R): 43 (January: 44-40 Cassidy).

NH-Sen: UNH: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 50, Scott Brown (R): 38 (April: 45-39 Shaheen).

Gubernatorial:

FL-Gov: Here's an interesting piece on the various mis-steps GOP Gov. Rick Scott has made lately in his campaign against Charlie Crist—none of them major, but taken together, they suggest his team isn't operating at the top of its game. Most symbolic might be Scott's attempt to ding Crist for, of all things, wearing a Rolex watch, a move that only led to the media reminding voters that Scott's personal fortune, which he's spent liberally on his election efforts, dwarfs Crist's. Click through for more misguided attacks that have backfired on Scott.

House:

AL-06: There's not much on tap for the July primary calendar, though we do have a few runoffs in a trio of Southern states. One is in Alabama's open 6th Congressional District, one of the reddest in the nation, where state Rep. Paul DeMarco and former think tank president Gary Palmer are battling it out for the right to succeed retiring Rep. Spencer Bachus. DeMarco led Palmer 33-20 on primary night, but a new poll from Cygnal (which says it's unaffiliated with either campaign or any outside group) gives Palmer a wide 60-29 advantage.

DeMarco's campaign scoffed at the survey but declined to provide contradictory numbers. And as AL.com's Madison Underwood points out, Cygnal correctly predicted DeMarco and Palmer would make the runoff in a pre-primary poll, though they understated DeMarco's eventual margin. So why the change in fortunes? Probably because Palmer's received a big boost from the Club for Growth, which has relentlessly attacked DeMarco after their preferred candidate, surgeon Chad Mathis, failed to make the second round of voting. Regardless, we'll have our answers on Tuesday night.

NM-02, AR-02: The Blue Dog Coalition (which still hasn't updated its website since February) has endorsed two more Democrats running in red districts: Rocky Lara in NM-02 and Patrick Hays in AR-02. Strangely, they're also trying to claim that their endorsement of Nick Casey in WV-02 is new, too, but the Casey campaign announced that one last month.

Ads:

AZ-Gov: The very complicated GOP primary for governor in Arizona features a lot of different candidates and outside organizations sniping at a lot of other candidates, with no unified direction in terms of where all the fire is aimed. With that in mind, here's a spot from a group called Better Leaders for Arizona, which features an over-the-top narrator blasting state Treasurer Doug Ducey over a variety of sins, including the failure of lots of franchises when he was CEO of the ice cream chain Cold Stone Creamery. Third parties backing Ducey have been bashing attorney Christine Jones, whose allies are apparently behind Better Leaders.

Meanwhile, Mesa Mayor Scott Smith (who's also received some brickbats from outside groups) has another ad touting his record in office.

TN-03: Republican congressional spawn Weston Wamp harks back all the way to his great-grandmother's entrepreneurial spirit and claims he's followed in her footsteps. Watching a couple of millennials high-five in what's supposed to be an office is probably not winning imagery with the typically older GOP primary electorate.

TN-04: GOP state Sen. Jim Tracy says too many politicians forget their oath of office right after they make it, another obvious reference to his primary opponent, Rep. Scott DesJarlais.

Grab Bag:

Ad Reservations: A number of campaigns and organizations just announced new television airtime reservations or recent ad spending. Here's a roundup:

GA-Sen: The Chamber of Commerce reported spending $780,000 this week on behalf of Rep. Jack Kingston for the July 22 GOP runoff. In total, they've spent $1.4 million on Kingston this cycle.

Senate: The Koch-backed Freedom Partners is booking millions in airtime in six Senate races: Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. Most of the ads are for August, but some start in September and run through Election Day. The total buys aren't clear, but the group is reserving at least $1.2 million in New Hampshire.

MI-Gov: GOP Gov. Rick Snyder has reserved $5 million in fall ad time while his Democratic challenger, ex-Rep. Mark Schauer, has booked $3.2 million.

AZ-02: Republican Martha McSally has reportedly reserved $460,000 in the Tucson media market for the "final weeks" of her campaign against Democratic Rep. Ron Barber.

CA-52: Republican Carl DeMaio is blocking off $1.2 million in airtime in his bid to unseat Democratic Rep. Scott Peters.

House: The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC has announced a third round of fall ad reservations, totaling $7.4 million. Most are in media markets where HMP has already booked airtime, but a handful are brand-new and potentially cover districts that weren't previously included. (You can find a full list here.) The new possibilities include NE-02 (Omaha); NJ-02, NJ-03, PA-06, and PA-08 (Philadelphia), and VA-10 (Washington, DC), all of which are bolded in the linked spreadsheet.

WATN?: Former Southaven, MS Mayor Greg Davis, who lost an embarrassing special election to Democrat Travis Childers in 2008, then later was revealed to have spent municipal funds at a gay sex shop in Montreal, was just sentenced to two-and-a-half years in prison on fraud and embezzlement charges. Press writeups of the sentencing don't mention sex toys, but one charge Davis was convicted on involved his fraudulent purchase of a $46,000 SUV from the city for just $11,000. The DCCC actually attacked Davis over this vehicle in TV ads they ran (uncannily remembered by James L.—see the 19-second mark), so it's gratifying to see this one come home to roost.

WATN?: Todd Akin's returning to public life next week with a new book about his infamous 2012 Senate campaign, and the only thing he's sorry about is the fact that he said he was sorry for making his "legitimate rape" comments in the first place. In the middle of a heated battle for control of the Senate this year, and with impeachment already proving an unwelcome distraction, I'm sure the GOP wishes it had a way of shutting this whole thing down.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Like zombies they don't know how to die (13+ / 0-)
    Todd Akin's returning to public life next week with a new book about his infamous 2012 Senate campaign, and the only thing he's sorry about is the fact that he said he was sorry for making his "legitimate rape" comments in the first place. In the middle of a heated battle for control of the Senate this year, and with impeachment already proving an unwelcome distraction, I'm sure the GOP wishes it had a way of shutting this whole thing down.
    YES lets remind the electorate, especially the women, how much we really think of them.  Right before an election.  

    What could possibly go wrong?

    I think the women will be the deciding factor this election more so than any demographic.  Women are freaking pissed over Hobby Lobby and these idiots want to throw more fuel on the fire.  I say 'here's another gas can'.    

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 05:34:17 AM PDT

  •  About Florida (0+ / 0-)

    Surprised there isn't a thread about this, but I'll ask my questions here...

    1. Who gets to draw the map?

    2. I'm sure the answer to question 1 will influence this, but how are the maps likely to end up?  Republicans seem to be thrilled at the verdict, Democrats despondent.  Does this mean the map will be even more republican than it is now?  Or are Republicans just happy because the changes will be minimal, but they will still benefit Democrats?

    33/D/M/NY-01/SSP&RRH: Tekzilla

    by Socks The Cat on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 05:47:13 AM PDT

    •  I would think the same folks who (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude

      drew up the original map.

      And I've seen mixed feelings on both sides.  No Democratic despondency.

      "When dealing with terrorism, civil and human rights are not applicable." Egyptian military spokesman.

      by Paleo on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:09:38 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  LA Senate Race (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod, GleninCA

      Mary Landrieu's lead in the LA Senate race, based on a Rasmussen poll, is really good news.  Rasmussen's polls usually have a GOP bias to them, so good news indeed.

      It's imperative that Landrieu on LA, Pryor in AR and Hagan in NC win re-election this fall.  I really had doubts months ago that all three could win, but forces at work in each state seem to be helping each of these three Democratic incumbents, proving the point yet again that all politics is local.  We'll see where things stand in these three states in mid-September.

      I also wonder how much of an impact the ACA is having in these races.  

      NC had one of the stronger efforts to enroll folks in the ACA, due to the numerous non-profit groups across the state who enrolled tens of thousand into the ACA, but the state did not expand Medicare.

      In AR, enrollments in the ACA exceeded expectations, and the state did expand Medicare, a rarity in a southern state.  Perhaps this can help expalint part of the reason for Pryor's return from the dead.  

      And in LA, enrollments in the ACA also exceeded expectations, with a huge surge the final month.  But the big story there is Landrieu continuously pounding GOP Gov. Joindal and the GOP legislature over the lack of Medicare expansion in the state.    

      "The quote on the Statue of Liberty doesn't say 'give me your english-speaking only, Christian-believing, heterosexual masses'

      by unapologeticliberal777 on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:14:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I can't decide if I should get my hopes up (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus

    for KS-GOV or KY-SEN.

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:10:55 AM PDT

  •  Surely nepotism isn't out of character for the GOP (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Desert Rose
    • NC-06: This is super strange. The Republican State Leadership Committee, which is tasked with helping the GOP win state legislative races, for some bizarre reason funneled $75,000 to a super PAC to help Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger, Jr. win a runoff against pastor Mark Walker in a safely Republican seat in North Carolina. The reason is pretty simple, though: Berger is the son of state Senate Majority Leader Phil Berger, Sr., who is also the immediate past chair of the RSLC.

    So just to be clear, a major GOP organization diverted precious resources from its mission to help the offspring of its former leader in a race where nothing is at stake. I'm sure donors are thrilled about that.

    All that is necessary for the triumph of the Right is that progressives do nothing.

    by Mystic Michael on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:11:57 AM PDT

    •  Where you have politics, you have nepotism. (0+ / 0-)

      The long colorful histories of Chicago and New York City politics help to paint that picture.

      Illegal now, though. Right?

      LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

      by dinotrac on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:20:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  not illegal in this context (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        dinotrac

        In many places it's illegal (as well as unseemly) to directly appoint your kids, brother, etc. to appointed paid positions, or to hire them into civil service jobs that you control. But helping your kid, nephew, whatever get elected? Not at all. Do we imagine that Ted Kennedy got elected to his brother's Senate seat without Jack putting in a word for him anywhere? Or that the various Kennedy family next-generations got into office purely on merit, with no help from the family connection? Baloney.

    •  When you're talking about Berger (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, Mystic Michael

      NOTHING is surprising.  This is a guy who won't even get Duke Energy to clean up their own mess even though he is FROM the town where the largest and most notorious coal ash spill took place.  He's a total tool, brought to you by ALEC.

      I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

      by mojo11 on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:30:13 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  On this particular count (0+ / 0-)

      "Both sides do it" is not an unreasonable claim.

  •  NC-06 (0+ / 0-)

    Are there underlying competitive legislative races?  Are the 3/5ths supermajorities at risk?

    Just looking for what line of malarkey was used to rationalize this.

    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

    by benamery21 on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:24:03 AM PDT

  •  re: NC-06 - a perfectly Republican thing to do (0+ / 0-)

    ...it IS the party of privilege, after all - have to show the flag, y'know....

    You'd think by now at least my half-a-brain would get the message
    Crawling, crawling, crawling from the wreckage, into a brand new life...

    by chmood on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:25:28 AM PDT

    •  Yeah, but WHAT flag? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mmacdDE, chmood

      My guess is that they know Berger the Younger will hold the company line, but maybe not so much this other guy.  But if a Rethug got primaried in this state, you can bet it was a challenge from the right... and the "establishment" already knows they can't control that monster.

      I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

      by mojo11 on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:33:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  the "I'm the biggest monkey" flag: power of wealth (0+ / 0-)

        You'd think by now at least my half-a-brain would get the message
        Crawling, crawling, crawling from the wreckage, into a brand new life...

        by chmood on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:44:12 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You got THAT right. (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          chmood

          Look at the GOP "leadership" in the NCGA and they're all ALEC darlings with the biggest house in the district.  One of them is even NAMED "Dollar" (truth in advertising?).  And every one of them corrupt to his core.

          I'll believe corporations are people when one comes home from Afghanistan in a body bag.

          by mojo11 on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:59:30 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Yeah, I think the donors are totally down with it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      chmood

      ...feathering their own nest is something they can totally understand

      Necessity is the argument of tyrants; it is the creed of slaves.-- Wm.Pitt the Younger

      by JeffSCinNY on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 07:10:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ron Barber's probable opponent in AZ-2 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    won't debate with the other candidates in her primary.

    http://azdem.org/...

    Said by a conservative quoted in the article:

    “Nothing could be more enlightening about the qualifications of these two candidates than the fact that they refuse to participate in a debate.”

    It is ridiculous to pretend that firing teachers based on student test scores, starting charter schools, giving out vouchers or implementing merit pay will overcome the challenges facing a child living in poverty. -Jersey Jazzman

    by Desert Rose on Fri Jul 11, 2014 at 06:27:25 AM PDT

  •  NC GOP is trying to reposition to address (0+ / 0-)

    AG Roy Cooper's run against McCrory. That explain the curious funding anomaly in North Carolina race you mentioned  

  •  News in KS Gov race (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod, GleninCA

    Cook Political changed this race to "toss-up."   Note that they never mone an incumbant to less than toss-up unless something earth-shattering happens.

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