Kansas Republican Sen. Pat Roberts faces a tea party primary challenge August 5.
The 2014 primary season has given us plenty of exciting races so far. Among many other things, we've seen a tight Republican gubernatorial primary in Nebraska, Rep. Charlie Rangel pull off a narrow primary win, and the fall and rise of Sen. Thad Cochran. Oh, and some guy from Virginia lost his primary ... Eric something.
The good news for election junkies is we have a lot more to go. Starting July 15, we have more primary action to look forward to. Several members of Congress will fight for renomination, open seats will be fiercely contested and incumbents will wait to find out who they will be facing in November.
Below is a chart with details of each race, along with Daily Kos Elections' general election rating.
Head below the fold for a look at what to watch for these next few weeks.
July 15: Alabama and North Carolina runoffs
The second half of primary season kicks off with two Southern runoffs on heavily red turf. In the Birmingham area 6th Congressional District, state Rep. Paul DeMarco faces former think tank president Gary Palmer. DeMarco has been on the receiving end of attacks from the Club for Growth painting him as a liberal, and an independent poll gave Palmer a clear lead. The winner will have little problem holding this 74-percent Romney seat.
North Carolina's Greensboro-area 6th District has a runoff between Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger Jr. and pastor Mark Walker. Berger finished ahead of Walker 34-25 in the primary, has spent much more money and has the backing of outgoing Rep. Howard Coble. In a low-turnout election Walker may be able to benefit from turnout among religious conservatives, but this looks like Berger's race to lose. The winner will be the clear favorite in this 58-percent Romney seat.
July 22: Georgia Republican runoffs
Republicans go to the polls to choose their nominees in runoffs for the U.S. Senate and three safely red open House seats. The Senate contest pits businessman David Perdue against Rep. Jack Kingston. Perdue ran ahead of Kingston 31-26, and has plenty of his own money to spend. For his part, Kingston has picked up the backing of most of his former rivals, and Perdue has not shown much discipline on the campaign trail. Most runoff polls gave Kingston the edge, though some recent surveys show things much closer. The winner will take on Democrat Michelle Nunn, who looks like she has the means to make this a real contest.
In the race to replace Kingston in the Savannah-area 1st District, state Sen. Buddy Carter finished far ahead of physician Bob Johnson in the primary. Still, the Club for Growth has gotten involved and targeted Carter. Over in the 10th District, trucking executive Mike Collins will take on pastor and radio host Jody Hice. Collins, the son of a former representative, has proven to be a better fundraiser than Hice. Still, Hice's very socially conservative views may give him an opening in the low turnout race.
In the exurban Atlanta 10th District, former Rep. and 2008 Libertarian Party presidential nominee Bob Barr is seeking a comeback as a Republican once again. Barr faces state Sen. Barry Loudermilk, who has hit Barr for some of his past apostasies.
August 5: Kansas, Michigan, and Washington
After a two-week break, August 5 gives us our biggest election night from now until November.
In Kansas, Republican Gov. Sam Brownback has managed to infuriate enough voters to jeopardize his reelection chances in November. While he should be safe in the primary, a late June poll gave him a very unimpressive lead over his minor primary foe. A poor performance among his fellow Republicans could indicate that Brownback is in even more danger than he looks right now.
In the Senate contest, incumbent Republican Pat Roberts has been hurt by revelations about his very weak ties to his state. However, Roberts' opponent, radiologist Milton Wolf, has his own problems: He posted and then mocked graphic pictures of injuries on Facebook. Roberts is not out of the woods, but Wolf looks like he has a very uphill climb. Over in the safely red 4th District, Rep. Mike Pompeo faces his predecessor Todd Tiahrt, who left the seat in 2010 to unsuccessfully run for the Senate. An early poll gave Pompeo a clear lead, but Tiahrt is well-known enough that he can make things interesting.
Michigan also offers us a lot of House primary action, with two House Republicans facing serious primary challenges. In the reliably red 3rd District, libertarian Republican Rep. Justin Amash faces businessman Brian Ellis. Early polls give Amash a clear lead, but Ellis has the resources to make things competitive.
In the 11th District, freshman Rep. Kerry Bentivolio is fighting to hold his seat against the very wealthy foreclosure lawyer Dave Trott. Bentivolio won his seat in a fluke after then-Rep. Thad McCotter was thrown off the ballot, and Trott looks like he will give the congressman a tough time. Bentivolio is hoping that Trott's history of foreclosing on vulnerable individuals will give him a chance to keep his seat. Democrats have an outside shot at this 52-47 Romney seat, and national party favorite Bobby McKenzie faces physician Anil Kumar here, with former radio host Nancy Skinner also in the mix.
The 6th District may also be worth watching, where longtime Republican Rep. Fred Upton faces nurse Jim Bussler. Upton is not seen as especially vulnerable, but his relatively moderate views have given him trouble in the past: In light of Eric Cantor's sudden defeat, he probably should take nothing for granted here.
Michigan will also play host to several open House seats. In the safely red 4th District, state Sen. John Moolenaar, who has the backing of retiring Rep. Dave Camp, faces state party finance chair and businessman Paul Mitchell. The Lansing-area 8th District has a Republican primary duel between former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop and state Rep. Tom McMillin. The winner will take on Democratic Ingham County Treasurer Eric Schertzing in this light red seat.
In the open and safely blue Detroit-based 14th District, Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence initially looked the like the clear favorite over state Rep. Rudy Hobbs. However, she got a last-minute surprise when former Rep. Hansen Clarke jumped into the race. Clarke lost his seat badly to fellow Rep. Gary Peters, but early polls show him looking competitive.
Over in Washington, a boatload of candidates are competing in the red 4th District to replace retiring GOP Rep. Doc Hastings. All eight Republicans, two Democrats and two independents are running on one ballot, with the top-two advancing to November regardless of party. Anything can happen in this packed race (though the chance that two Democrats both advance to November is unlikely in this 60-percent Romney seat). The two Republican frontrunners look like former state Agriculture Director Dan Newhouse, who has significant establishment backing, and tea partying former NFL player Clint Didier.
August 7: Tennessee
The Volunteer State is the only one to hold a primary on Thursday. No one seems to know why.
Republican Sen. Lamar Alexander has occasionally taken moderate votes, and he looked like he was vulnerable to a tea party challenge. However, the best candidate his detractors could get was state Rep. Joe Carr, who hasn't excited many people. To make matters worse for the tea party, six other Republicans are running, potentially diluting whatever anti-Alexander vote there is. An upset is possible, but it doesn't look likely. Alexander would be the easy favorite in November.
Three Tennessee House members face credible primary challengers in seats safe for their party. Sophomore Republican Rep. Chuck Fleischmann faces a rematch with Weston Wamp, whom he defeated 39-29 in 2012. Wamp is well-funded and is the son of former Rep. Zack Wamp. However, the younger Wamp did himself no favors months ago when he secretly recorded a conversation with a potential supporter.
In the heavily Republican 4th, sophomore Rep. Scott DesJarlais looked like the most vulnerable incumbent anywhere at the start of the cycle: When he practiced as a physician, DesJarlais had affairs with multiple patients and encouraged at least one to have an abortion. Sen. Jim Tracy appeared poised to unseat him, but a recent poll shockingly showed DesJarlais ahead 45-20.
In the safely blue Memphis 9th District, Rep. Steve Cohen faces wealthy attorney Ricky Wilkins. As a white politician representing a heavily African-American seat Cohen has always needed to work for re-election, and he earned some attention in 2013 when the woman he thought was his daughter turned out not to be. Still, Cohen has won easily in the past, and it would be a big surprise if he didn't win again.
August 9: Hawaii
Democratic Gov. Neil Abercrombie has had a bumpy tenure and he faces a competitive general election. However, he must get past state Sen. David Ige first. Ige has raised little money and initially wasn't seen as a threat, but polls have shown him looking competitive with or even leading Abercrombie. In the U.S. Senate race, appointed Sen. Brian Schatz faces Rep. and fellow Democrat Colleen Hanabusa. Both candidates have influential supporters: Schatz has President Obama's endorsement, while the family of the late Sen. Daniel Inouye backs Hanabusa. The winner will be safe in November.
Democrats have a competitive race to replace Hanabusa in the Honolulu-based 1st District. Seven candidates are running, but the frontrunners look like state Senate President Donna Mercado Kim and state Rep. Mark Takai. Kim has sometimes strayed from more mainstream Democratic positions, with her opposing the state's same-sex marriage law in 2013.
August 12: Connecticut, Minnesota and Wisconsin
Over in the Nutmeg State, two Republicans are competing to face Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy. Tom Foley, who came close to beating Malloy in 2010, looks like the clear favorite over state Senate Minority Leader John McKinney.
Over in Minnesota, four noteworthy Republicans are competing to take on Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton. Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson won the influential endorsement of the state party at its convention, but he must get through venture capitalist Scott Honour, former state Senate Minority Leader Marty Seifert and former House Speaker Kurt Zellers. Over in the heavily red 6th District, 2010 gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer looks like the clear frontrunner over Anoka County Commissioner Rhonda Sivarajah.
In the Badger State, three credible Republicans are facing off to succeed Rep. Tom Petri in this 53-percent Romney seat. Democrats would love it if state Sen. Glenn Grothman made it through the primary; Grothman has a long record of controversial statements and he would probably be the easiest to beat. Grothman is facing state Sen. Joe Leibham and state Assemblyman Duey Stroebel. The winner will take on Democratic Winnebago County Executive Mark Harris.
August 19: Alaska
Democratic Sen. Mark Begich will be a top Republican target in November, and former state Attorney General Dan Sullivan is the preferred pick of national Republicans. Sullivan is favored over Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell, who has run a disorganized campaign so far, but polls indicate it is possible for Treadwell to pull off an upset. Also running is 2010 nominee Joe Miller, who does not look like he'll get a second chance.
August 26: Arizona, Florida and Oklahoma
In the Grand Canyon State there's a lot to see. Four credible Republicans are facing off in the gubernatorial primary: Secretary of State Ken Bennett, Treasurer Doug Ducey, former Go Daddy executive Christine Jones and former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith. There does not appear to be an obvious frontrunner at the moment. The winner will take on Democratic state university Regent Fred DuVal.
There will be several Arizona House primaries to watch as well. In the 1st District Republican race, state House Speaker Andy Tobin faces rancher Gary Kiehne and state Rep. Adam Kwasman for the right to take on Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. In the heavily Democratic Phoenix-based 7th District, state Rep. Ruben Gallego (who is backed by Daily Kos) is up against former Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox. In the 9th District, retired Air Force officer Wendy Rogers faces former football player Andrew Walter in the Republican primary: The winner will go up against freshman Democrat Kyrsten Sinema.
In Florida, former Gov. Charlie Crist is expected to easily defeat former state Senate Minority Leader Nan Rich in the Democratic primary for governor. The winner will go up against Republican Gov. Rick Scott. In the 18th District, six Republicans are competing to go up against Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy. Romney narrowly won the seat, but none of the Republicans has made much of an impression against the formidable Murphy. In the 26th District, Republican Miami-Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo is expected to easily defeat his three foes for the right to take on Democrat Joe Garcia.
In Oklahoma, we have a Republican runoff between State Corporation Commissioner Patrice Douglas and former state Sen. Steve Russell in this safely red Oklahoma City seat. The two were very close in the first round, but Douglas has proven to be a much better fundraiser so far.
September 9: Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island
Three states are up in our final primary night of 2014 before the November general.
In the Massachusetts gubernatorial race, Attorney General Martha Coakley appears to have rehabilitated her reputation after losing Ted Kennedy's old Senate seat in 2010. Coakley has posted clear leads in every Democratic primary poll against Treasurer Steve Grossman and former U.S. Medicare/Medicaid administrator Don Berwick. Grossman has more money and may be able to make this competitive, but Coakley looks like she's in the driver's seat. The winner should be favored, though not assured victory, against 2010 Republican nominee Charlie Baker.
In the Salem-area 6th District, Democratic Rep. John Tierney has not had an easy few years. His wife and brother-in-law were both part of a tax fraud scheme. While Tierney was not involved, the matter almost cost him his seat in 2012. This year Tierney faces a general election rematch with former state Senate Republican leader Richard Tisei, but he must get past the well-funded Seth Moulton in the primary first. What little polling there is shows Tierney easily leading Moulton, but the challenger has the resources to make this a real race.
In New Hampshire, all the primary action is on the Republican side. In the gubernatorial primary, businessman Walt Havenstein faces conservative activist Andrew Hemingway. The winner will be the decided underdog against Gov. Maggie Hassan. For Senate, former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown looks like the favorite over former Sen. Bob Smith and former state Sen. Jim Rubens. There is an element of the state electorate that is suspicious of Brown for his carpetbagging and relatively moderate voting record, but it doesn't look organized enough to cost him the nomination. The winner will start out the underdog against Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.
In the state's 1st District, former Rep. Frank Guinta faces former University of New Hampshire Business School dean Dan Innis for the right to face Rep. Carol Shea-Porter in November. In the 2nd District, three Republicans are jockeying to face Rep. Annie Kuster: state Rep. Marilinda Garcia, former state Sen. Gary Lambert and former state Rep. Jim Lawrence. Garcia has received some attention from the national GOP, but she has been an unimpressive fundraiser so far.
In Rhode Island, both parties have competitive races for governor. On the Democratic side, Providence Mayor Angel Taveras and Treasurer Gina Raimondo look like the main contenders, with former Obama administration official Clay Pell also in the mix. The GOP has a duel between Cranston Mayor Allan Fung and businessman Ken Block.