In case you missed it, the BLS and the individual states released their jobs numbers for June this week. Here in Wisconsin, I was wondering if that impending release was playing a role in Scott Walker's sudden desire to deflect and distract the media with lame anti-Mary Burke ads that are now being called false by Trek's president (aka Burke's brother John), and Walker making numerous (taxpayer-funded) trips to campaign contributors to announce "future expansions" (I explained the BS and conflicts of interest these trips in this story along with our paid-off media's compliance in covering these PR events, while covering up scandals at Walker's WEDC jobs agency).
And it turns out I was right to be suspicious, as it turns out that the Wisconsin lost 1,200 private sector jobs in June, and May was revised to show an extra 500 jobs lost in that month. This now means Wisconsin has lost private sector jobs in 4 of the 6 months of 2014- a time period that the US as a whole GAINED 1.33 MILLION private sector jobs.
When combined with May's job losses (now revised up to 900 in yesterday's report), it makes Wisconsin the only state in the Midwest to lose private-sector jobs in both months. In fact, Wisconsin was at least 15,000 JOBS BEHIND 4 of our 6 Midwestern neighbors, as we thawed out from the polar vortex winter.
Private sector job change, April-June 2014
Mich +34,300
Ind. +17,200
Minn +13,500
Ohio +12,900
Iowa +3,000
Ill. +2,800
Wis. -2,100
With this bad June report coming while the rest of the country was thriving (263,000 private sector jobs added, and 288,000 overall), the Walker jobs gap has jumped quite a bit higher. Wisconsin is now nearly 66,000 private sector jobs below what we'd have if we'd kept up with the US pace, and 56,000 jobs in the hole overall.
Remarkably, while many parts of the country seems to be adding jobs at the best pace in years, Wisconsin is getting worse the longer Walker stays in office. The paltry 8,500 private sector jobs added in the first 6 months of 2014 is the lowest half-year total in Scotty's 3 1/2 years in office, and it shows that the strong end of 2013 numbers were a fluke that didn't break the state out of its Walker-led doldrums.
It's also worth mentioning that this 2014 job failure has come in a year where two rounds of income tax cuts have taken effect. Do you need any more proof you need that tax cuts don't create jobs, and that Scott Walker's corporate cronysim and "austerity for those outside of the inner circle" policy isn't the way to go?
But these horrible stats don't mean the Walker Administration has given up trying to convince people that somehow "It's Working" in Wisconsin. Which means it's time to destroy yet another lame pro-Walker cheerleading attempt by DWD Secretary Reggie Newson. I'll start off with the DWD spin, and respond with the context and reality. I'll also remind you that these press releases are your tax dollars at work!
Highlights of today's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report of state-by-state employment and unemployment estimates include:
Wisconsin's unemployment rate had a statistically significant decrease between June 2013 and June 2014. (2014 5.7% v. 2013 6.8%). Wisconsin's unemployment rate has not risen for 19 months.
So freaking what? The only reason Wisconsin's unemployment stayed even at 5.7% was because 7,400 people dropped out of the workforce in June. In addition, the US rate has only gone up one time in the last 18 months, and has dropped from 7.5% to 6.1% in the last year - a bigger drop than Wisconsin’s (1.4% vs. 1.1%). In the Midwest, 4 of the 6 other states had statistically significant drops in unemployment, and their drops were between 1.4% and 2.1%. Also, the 2 states that didn’t make the “statistically significant list” (Iowa and Minnesota) already had unemployment down to 4.8% and 5.1% in June 2013, and currently are even lower than that today.
This claim actually makes Wisconsin look worse, not better.
Wisconsin has a statistically significant private-sector job (Current Employment Statistics) increase between June 2013 and June 2014 at 33,800, which ranked 23rd nationally.
This is damning with praise again.
Wisconsin is 20th among all the states in population, so being 23rd in total job increase means if anything, we’re underachieving.
Wisconsin had a statistically significant total nonfarm job (CES) increase between June 2013 and June 2014 at 45,400, which ranked 16th nationally.
This sounds good on the surface, but leaves out the 2 ½ years of bottom-third suckitude before this, and leaves out the fact that over ¼ of these jobs are in GOVERNMENT. (So much for “small government conservative Scott Walker.”)
Wisconsin had a statistically significant manufacturing job (CES) increase between June 2013 and June 2014 at 8,300, which ranked 5th nationally and above Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota.
Again, so what?
We’re just behind Indiana for Number 1 in the U.S. when it comes to the highest percentage of jobs in manufacturing. It would be like if Wisconsin bars took credit for selling the most brandy per capita in the nation. Of course we’d do well in this stat when manufacturing employment is growing in America.
No matter how they try to dress it up, the Walker Administration can't hide from the fact that Wisconsin is still worst in the Midwest for job creation. This statement is true both in the first 3 years of the Age of Fitzwalkerstan (as shown by the "gold standard" Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages report), and in the 2 months since the grass started to grow. I understand that a Common Core opponent like Walker might find math to be a liberal plot, but it doesn't change the fact that this state has badly lagged since his radical policies were put in place, and there is little evidence this will change until new leadership is installed.
P.S. For more information, on this topic check out UW-Madison professor Menzie Chinn's recent post on Econbrowser where he contrasts the failure of ALEC states like Kansas and Wisconsin with growing, Dem-led states like California and Minnesota. Worth noting- those Dem-led states have more jobs now than they did before the Great Recession hit, while Kansas and Wisconsin still have yet to get back to that level.
Dems would be wise to point out this reality in places that have governor elections and state legislatures up for grabs, so that the lame excuse of "B-b-but,...Obama!" falls flat among those of us that don't think math is a liberal plot.