Welcome to the second of my three-part series on this year's elections in California! If you missed the first installment (which dealt with congressional districts), click here.
Except for 20 odd-numbered state senate seats, all elected positions of state government are on the ballot this year. In 2010, Democrats swept the statewide offices and established control of almost all levers of political power in California. This year, they will seek to consolidate those gains and keep the superminority Republicans shut out of relevance.
Part 2 will be split into two parts: the first will discuss the state executive offices, and the second will break down the state senate races.
"Look into my eyes...you are getting sleepy...you will vote for Jerry...you will vote for Democrats only..."
State Executive
Governor
Incumbent: Jerry Brown (D)
2010 results: 53.8% Jerry Brown (D), 40.9% Meg Whitman (R)
Candidates: Jerry Brown (D), Neel Kashkari (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
And Saint Jerry raised the ballot up on high, saying, "O Lord, bless this Thy election with Thy Mercy, that with it Thou mayst blow the Republican candidate into tiny bits." And the Lord will grin, and the people shall feast upon the lambs, and sloths, and Delta smelt, and avocados, and carne asada fries, and same-sex marriage certificates, and high-speed rail trains...
Lieutenant Governor
Incumbent: Gavin Newsom (D)
2010 results: 50.2% Gavin Newsom (D), 39.0% Abel Maldonado (R)
Candidates: Gavin Newsom (D), Ron Nehring (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Newsom can enjoy four more years of effective funemployment unless or until someone, anyone, retires in 2016 or 2018 so he can actually do something of substance.
Secretary of State
Incumbent: Debra Bowen (D)
2010 results: 53.2% Debra Bowen (D), 38.2% Damon Dunn (R)
Candidates: Alex Padilla (D), Pete Peterson (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
After Leland Yee went to jail (but still getting almost 10% of the vote!), Padilla was essentially handed the position on a silver platter. Now he will have to deal with the mess of our electoral system the following race is now exposing.
Controller
Incumbent: John Chiang (D)
2010 results: 55.2% John Chiang (D), 36.1% Tony Strickland (R)
Candidates: Betty Yee (D), Ashley Swearengin (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
After a messy aborted recount by third-place finisher John Pérez, Yee now has a clear shot at the controller's office. Republicans and the media can wet their pants about Swearengin's purported strength, but Yee is the one in the driver's seat.
Betty Yee has a lot to be happy about.
Treasurer
Incumbent: Bill Lockyer (D)
2010 results: 56.5% Bill Lockyer (D), 36.2% Mimi Walters (R)
Candidates: John Chiang (D), Greg Conlon (R)
Rating:
Safe Democratic
Chiang jumps from one statewide finance job to another, and nothing can or will stop him.
Attorney General
Incumbent: Kamala Harris (D)
2010 results: 46.1% Kamala Harris (D), 45.3% Steve Cooley (R)
Candidates: Kamala Harris (D), Ronald Gold (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
After winning by less than 1% in 2010, Harris will not be sweating this time around. The real speculation is what position will she be angling for next.
Insurance Commissioner
Incumbent: Dave Jones (D)
2010 results: 50.6% Dave Jones (D), 37.6% Mike Villines (R)
Candidates: Dave Jones (D), Ted Gaines (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Jones is still fighting the good fight to bring healthcare insurance premiums under his department's regulation. This election will let him continue that.
Superintendent of Public Instruction
Incumbent: Tom Torlakson (D)
2010 results: 54.6% Tom Torlakson (D), 44.9% Larry Aceves (I)
Candidates: Tom Torlakson (D), Marshall Tuck (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic, Likely Torlakson
This formally nonpartisan office is probably the only real contentious race. While both candidates are registered Democrats, the two are proxies in the fight between teachers unions and charter schools, with former schoolteacher and assemblyman Torlakson with the unions and former charter school CEO Tuck with the, well, charter schools. Torlakson, being the incumbent and having fought this fight four years ago, has the upper hand. The California Democratic Party has endorsed Torlakson.
Board of Equalization
The Board of Equalization is a five-member executive board that collects certain state taxes and hears tax appeals. Four members are elected by district, while the state controller serves as the fifth member. The California Board of Equalization is the only elected tax body in the United States. Democrats currently hold a 3-2 majority.
Click here for an interactive of the districts and ratings.
Map of the Board of Equalization districts.
BOE-01 - Inland California: Sierra Nevada, Central Valley, High Desert
Incumbent: George Runner (R-Lancaster)
08/12 PVI: R+2
2012 PVI: EVEN
2012 pres results: 49.7% Obama, 47.8% Romney
2010 BOE results: 50.0% George Runner (R), 42.9% Chris Parker (D)
Candidates: George Runner (R), Chris Parker (D)
Rating:
Likely Republican
Obscure offices like the Board of Equalization are often reduced to voting by party, and Northern California is less prone to ticket-splitting than Southern California. Having said that, this particular rematch still favors Runner, especially when Parker doesn't even have a campaign website.
BOE-02 - Coastal north: North Coast, Bay Area, Central Coast
Incumbent: Betty Yee (D-Alameda)
08/12 PVI: D+20
2012 PVI: D+21
2012 pres results: 70.4% Obama, 26.7% Romney
2010 BOE results: 63.1% Betty Yee (D), 31.2% Kevin Scott (R)
Candidates: Fiona Ma (D), James Theis (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Ma, a former assembly speaker pro tempore from San Francisco and a CPA by training, gets a cushy landing spot in this Bay Area-dominant seat.
BOE-03 - Metro LA: Los Angeles, Ventura
Incumbent: Jerome Horton (D-Inglewood)
08/12 PVI: D+15
2012 PVI: D+20
2012 pres results: 69.0% Obama, 28.6% Romney
2010 BOE results: 71.8% Jerome Horton (D), 28.4% other (no Republican candidate)
Candidates: Jerome Horton (D), G. Rick Marshall (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Horton, a former BOE staffer and assemblyman appointed to the board in 2009 by then-governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, will easily win four more years.
BOE-04 - Suburban SoCal: San Diego, Orange County, Inland Empire
Incumbent: Michelle Park Steel (R-Surfside)
08/12 PVI: EVEN
2012 PVI: EVEN
2012 pres results: 50.4% Obama, 47.5% Romney
2010 BOE results: 54.9% Michelle Park Steel (R), 34.6% Mary Christian Heising (D)
Candidates: Diane Harkey (R), Nader Shahatit (D)
Rating: Safe Republican
Despite its PVI, this district is much more GOP-friendly than the others. While Shahatit can possibly pull this off due to people voting party-line this far downballot, but Harkey, a sitting assemblywoman, has much higher odds of winning.
State Senate
Another interactive map here!
Note: An asterisk (*) indicates an open seat, while a dagger (†) denotes an intraparty race. These districts are being used for the first time after the 2011 redistricting, so to determine incumbents the closest corresponding old district is used.
Safe Dem |
Likely Dem |
Lean Dem |
Tossup |
Lean GOP |
Likely GOP |
Safe GOP |
2*, 6*†, 10*,
18*, 20*, 22,
24†, 26*†, 30,
32*, 40†
|
|
|
14, 34*
|
|
12
|
4, 8, 16,
28*†, 36*, 38
|
11 SDs |
0 SDs |
0 SDs |
2 SDs |
0 SDs |
1 SD |
6 SDs |
15 incumbent Dem
|
|
|
|
|
|
5 incumbent GOP
|
26 SDs |
0 SDs |
0 SDs |
2 SDs |
0 SDs |
1 SD |
11 SDs |
SD-02 - North Coast: Eureka, Santa Rosa, San Rafael
Incumbent: Noreen Evans (D-Santa Rosa)
08/12 PVI: D+20
2012 PVI: D+20
2012 pres results: 69.7% Obama, 27.4% Romney
2010 SD-02 results: 63.4% Noreen Evans (D), 36.6% Lawrence Wiesner (R)
Candidates: Mike McGuire (D), Lawrence Wiesner (R)
Rating:
Safe Democratic
Evans unexpectedly announced her retirement after one term, but Democrats quickly rallied around McGuire, a Sonoma County supervisor. McGuire will now have an easy 12 years in the statehouse.
SD-04 - Sacramento Valley: Chico, Yuba City, Citrus Heights
Incumbent: Jim Nielsen (R-Gerber)
08/12 PVI: R+6
2012 PVI: R+5
2012 pres results: 44.4% Obama, 52.6% Romney
2010 SD-04 results: 68.3% Doug LaMalfa (R), 31.7% Lathe Gill (D)
2013 special election results: 66.6% Jim Nielsen (R), 33.4% Michael Harrington (D)
Candidates: Jim Nielsen (R), CJ Jawahar (D)
Rating: Safe Republican
This is actually Nielsen's second time in the state senate. His first stint lasted from 1978 to 1990, and he served as Republican leader for four years. He was eventually bogged down in ethics scandals surrounding campaign funds and lost to Democratic challenger (and current congressman) Mike Thompson by less than one point.
SD-06 - Capital region: Sacramento, Elk Grove, West Sacramento
Incumbent: Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento)
08/12 PVI: D+15
2012 PVI: D+17
2012 pres results: 66.1% Obama, 31.4% Romney
2010 SD-06 results: 61.0% Darrell Steinberg (D), 31.5% Marcel Weiland (R)
Candidates: Roger Dickinson (D), Richard Pan (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic, Lean Pan
This race is a battle between the capital's two assemblymen: the more progressive Dickinson and the more moderate Pan. Dickinson has the support of the state party, lawyers, SEIU, and Steinberg, while Pan has the support of the doctors. Labor unions are split, with some endorsing both. While Dickinson came out ahead 40-31 in the June primary, money and independent expenditures overwhelmingly favor Pan, and the state party will go all out to defend Ami Bera in nearby CD-07, which overlaps with SD-06 in areas that should favor Pan over Dickinson.
SD-08 - Central Sierras: Rancho Cordova, Turlock, Fresno
Incumbent: Tom Berryhill (R-Twain Harte)
08/12 PVI: R+8
2012 PVI: R+7
2012 pres results: 43.0% Obama, 54.6% Romney
2010 SD-14 results: 66.4% Tom Berryhill (R), 33.6% Larry Johnson (D)
Candidates: Tom Berryhill (R), Paulina Miranda (D)
Rating: Safe Republican
Redistricting saw a change in district number and removal of farmland in favor of mountains and Death Valley. Berryhill is safe.
SD-10 - East Bay/Silicon Valley: Hayward, Fremont, Santa Clara
Incumbent: Ellen Corbett (D-Hayward)
08/12 PVI: D+22
2012 PVI: D+25
2012 pres results: 74.3% Obama, 23.5% Romney
2010 SD-10 results: 66.6% Ellen Corbett (D), 27.8% Rob Maffit (R)
Candidates: Bob Wieckowski (D), Peter Kuo (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Wieckowski emerged from the June primary victorious but slightly bruised from his fight against former assemblywoman and convicted shoplifter Mary Hayashi. Kuo will try to capitalize on this and hammer at Wieckowski's support for SCA 5 (the now-dead affirmative action bill that got a ton of bad press in this heavily-Asian district), but Wieckowski will skate by in this solidly Democratic bastion.
Bob Wieckowski not stealing a fuel cell.
SD-12 - Central/Salinas Valleys: Merced, Madera, Salinas
Incumbent: Anthony Cannella (R-Ceres)
08/12 PVI: D+6
2012 PVI: D+8
2012 pres results: 57.6% Obama, 40.3% Romney
2010 SD-12 results: 51.5% Anthony Cannella (R), 48.5% Anna Caballero (D)
Candidates: Anthony Cannella (R), Shawn Bagley (D)
Rating:
Likely Republican
Cannella managed to forge a moderate reputation and has been noncontroversial during his four years in the legislature. Bagley, a Salinas produce broker, has had a hard time gaining traction and raising money, and Democrats seem to have triaged this district already.
SD-14 - Central Valley: Fresno, Hanford, Bakersfield
Incumbent: Andy Vidak (R-Hanford)
08/12 PVI: D+6
2012 PVI: D+8
2012 pres results: 58.3% Obama, 39.8% Romney
2010 SD-16 results: 60.5% Michael Rubio (D), 39.5% Tim Thiessen (R)
2013 special election results: 51.9% Andy Vidak (R), 48.1% Leticia Perez (D)
Candidates: Andy Vidak (R), Luis Chavez (D)
Rating: Tossup
Defeating an incumbent is always hard, but Democrats had to resort to a second-tier candidate in Chavez, a Fresno school board member, to take up the task. Given volatile Latino turnout in these parts, Democrats can very easily ramp up their machine and grab the district back or just as easily lose it for another four years. Combine this with the drought and heated races in overlapping CD-21 (Valadao vs. Renteria) and AD-32 (Salas vs. Rios), anything can happen here and any result will be close.
Test-calling the unemployment office, Andy?
SD-16 - Central Valley/High Desert: Visalia, Bakersfield, Barstow
Incumbent: Jean Fuller (R-Bakersfield)
08/12 PVI: R+15
2012 PVI: R+14
2012 pres results: 35.9% Obama, 61.7% Romney
2010 SD-18 results: 68.9% Jean Fuller (R), 31.1% Carter Pope (D)
Candidates: Jean Fuller (R), Ruth Musser-Lopez (D)
Rating:
Safe Republican
Unlike the other Central Valley districts, there is no contest here in the most Republican district in the state senate.
SD-18 - San Fernando Valley: Pacoima, Van Nuys, Sherman Oaks
Incumbent: Alex Padilla (D-Pacoima)
08/12 PVI: D+23
2012 PVI: D+25
2012 pres results: 73.9% Obama, 23.5% Romney
2010 SD-20 results: 68.4% Alex Padilla (D), 27.1% Kathleen "Suzy" Evans (R)
Candidates: Robert Hertzberg (D), Ricardo Benitez (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
12 years after leaving the state assembly as its speaker, Hertzberg is back and ready to hug people again. Given his Energizer bunny personality and legislative prowess, Hugsberg Hertzberg is often mentioned as a future president pro tempore.
SD-20 - Inland Empire: Pomona, Ontario, Fontana
Incumbent: Norma Torres (D-Pomona)
08/12 PVI: D+16
2012 PVI: D+19
2012 pres results: 68.2% Obama, 29.8% Romney
2010 SD-32 results: 67.9% Gloria Negrete McLeod (D), 32.1% Earl De Vries (R)
2013 special election results: 59.6% Norma Torres (D), 40.4% Paul Leon (R)
Candidates: Connie Leyva (D), Matthew Munson (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
This area will get three different state senators in two years as congresswoman Gloria Negrete McLeod keeps changing her job goals and sets off two rounds of musical chairs. The last person to grab a seat is Leyva, president of the California Labor Federation, who will have this seat for 12 years and continues a 14-year long string of female state senators from this area.
SD-22 - San Gabriel Valley: Alhambra, El Monte, West Covina
Incumbent: Ed Hernandez (D-West Covina)
08/12 PVI: D+16
2012 PVI: D+19
2012 pres results: 68.3% Obama, 29.4% Romney
2010 SD-24 results: 100.0% Ed Hernandez (D), 0.0% William Rodriguez Morrison (R, W/I)
Candidates: Ed Hernandez (D), Marc Rodriguez (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
The new district absorbed more the heavily Asian western San Gabriel Valley but remains majority Latino. Hernandez's political future and Democratic representation of his optometry practice remains safe.
SD-24 - Central LA: Echo Park, Eagle Rock, East Los Angeles
Incumbent: Kevin de León (D-Los Angeles)
08/12 PVI: D+32
2012 PVI: D+35
2012 pres results: 83.6% Obama, 13.3% Romney
2010 SD-22 results: 100.0% Kevin de León (D)
Candidates: Kevin de León (D), Peter Choi (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic, Safe de León
This election cycle is sweet revenge for De León, who lost a bitter assembly speakership battle against John Pérez in 2009. In the aftermath, he lost his appropriations committee chairmanship, found himself crammed into one of the smallest legislative offices, and was unceremoniously kicked across the state capital to the state senate. De León now has the last laugh: he is the first Latino president pro tem in 130 years, while Pérez narrowly lost the controller's race despite a multimillion-dollar warchest and is out of a job.
Incoming top dog.
SD-26 - West LA: Beverly Hills, Santa Monica, Palos Verdes
Incumbent: Ted Lieu (D-Torrance)
08/12 PVI: D+16
2012 PVI: D+16
2012 pres results: 64.9% Obama, 13.3% Romney
2010 SD-28 results: 58.2% Jenny Oropeza (D), 35.8% John Stammreich (R)
2011 special election results: 56.7% Ted Lieu (D), 28.3% Bob Valentine (R)
Candidates: Ben Allen (D), Sandra Fluke (D)
Rating:
Safe Democratic, Lean Allen
The battle was topsy-turvy since Lieu decided to run for Congress, with seven Democrats and one independent (but no Democrat) filing for this race. The June primary saw former assemblywoman Betsy Butler, the presumed favorite, sputtering at fourth place. Allen, a Santa Monica school board member and presumed runner-up, got first place instead. Fluke, a West Hollywood attorney of contraception coverage fame, suddenly became the progressive option in this race. While she may capture the spotlight more than Allen and be a much better fundraiser, Fluke has a thin resume (activists with little career or political experience almost never get elected to the California State Legislature, especially for Democrats) and may have a hard time gaining traction in this intensely parochial district.
SD-28 - Riverside County: Temecula, Palm Springs, Coachella
Incumbent: none, new district
08/12 PVI: R+5
2012 PVI: R+5
2012 pres results: 45.5% Obama, 52.6% Romney
Candidates: Bonnie Garcia (R), Jeff Stone (R)
Rating: Safe Republican, Tossup Garcia/Stone
This brand-new district in the Colorado Desert will see a Republican-only battle between Garcia, a former assemblywoman, and Stone, a Riverside County supervisor. Stone is from Temecula, in the hardcore conservative western half of the district, while Garcia is from Palm Desert, in the bluer Coachella Valley. The heated CD-36 race in the Coachella Valley may boost Garcia's numbers, but voter distribution favors Stone. The deep enmity between the two will ensure that the desert sun isn't the only thing that's hot.
SD-30 - Central LA: Downtown, South LA, Culver City
Incumbent: Holly Mitchell (D-Los Angeles)
08/12 PVI: D+37
2012 PVI: D+39
2012 pres results: 88.3% Obama, 9.7% Romney
2010 SD-26 results: 81.3% Curren Price (D), 13.8% Nachum Shifren (R)
2011 special election results: 81.0% Holly Mitchell (D), 19.0% Mervin Evans (D)
Candidates: Holly Mitchell (D), Isidro Armenta (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic, Safe Mitchell
The bluest state senate district in California will see a boring race, with Mitchell stomping on any and all opposition.
SD-32 - Gateway Cities: Whittier, Downey, Buena Park
Incumbent: Ron Calderon (D-Montebello)
08/12 PVI: D+12
2012 PVI: D+15
2012 pres results: 64.2% Obama, 33.7% Romney
2010 SD-30 results: 68.6% Ron Calderon (D), 31.4% Warren Willis (R)
Candidates: Tony Mendoza (D), Mario Guerra (R)
Rating: Safe Democratic
Despite the hype about Latino Republicans and their boosting of Guerra, they are only being set up for yet another loss to Democrats in this solidly blue district. Mendoza, a former assemblyman from Artesia, will be returned to Sacramento.
SD-34 - North OC: Huntington Beach, Garden Grove, Santa Ana
Incumbent: Lou Correa (D-Anaheim)
08/12 PVI: D+1
2012 PVI: D+4
2012 pres results: 53.3% Obama, 44.4% Romney
2010 SD-34 results: 65.8% Lou Correa (D), 34.2% Lucille Kring (R)
Candidates: Jose Solorio (D), Janet Nguyen (R)
Rating: Tossup
Redistricting saw the district lose Democratic-leaning Buena Park and West Anaheim while taking on blood-red Huntington Beach and reddish Westminster, Garden Grove, and Fountain Valley. The showdown that may determine Democrats' two-thirds grip on the state senate is between Solorio, a former assemblyman from Santa Ana, and Nguyen, an Orange County supervisor from Garden Grove. Both sides will go all in and use whatever means possible to win the district, and the race card will definitely come out time and time again. Nguyen smashed Solorio in the June primary with over half the vote, so Solorio must both hope that Democrats just didn't show up in June and go into overdrive if he wants to keep this seat blue.
Things are getting tough for Jose Solorio.
SD-36 - South OC/North County: Mission Viejo, Oceanside, Carlsbad
Incumbent: Mark Wyland (R-Solana Beach)
08/12 PVI: R+6
2012 PVI: R+7
2012 pres results: 43.2% Obama, 54.8% Romney
2010 SD-38 results: 60.2% Mark Wyland (R), 34.4% Gila Jones (D)
Candidates: Pat Bates (R), Gary Kephart (D)
Rating:
Safe Republican
Bates, an Orange County supervisor, is returning to Sacramento ten years after being termed out from the state assembly. Unlike her colleague Janet Nguyen to the north, Bates faces only token opposition in this hoity-toity Republican bastion.
SD-38 - East County: Escondido, Santee, El Cajon
Incumbent: Joel Anderson (R-Alpine)
08/12 PVI: R+10
2012 PVI: R+9
2012 pres results: 41.3% Obama, 56.7% Romney
2010 SD-36 results: 63.2% Joel Anderson (R), 33.0% Paul Clay (D)
Candidates: Joel Anderson (R), Fotios Tsimboukakis (D)
Rating: Safe Republican
Anderson, one of the most conservative members of the state senate (and the state legislature, for the matter), certainly fits well in this district. He can now freely spend four more years complaining about big government at taxpayers' expense.
SD-40 - International border: San Diego, Chula Vista, El Centro
Incumbent: Ben Hueso (D-San Diego)
08/12 PVI: D+13
2012 PVI: D+15
2012 pres results: 65.1% Obama, 33.3% Romney
2010 SD-40 results: 59.5% Juan Vargas (D), 40.5% Brian Hendry (R)
2013 special election results: 53.1% Ben Hueso (D), 21.6% Hector Raul Gastelum (R)
Candidates: Ben Hueso (D), Rafael Estrada (D)
Rating: Safe Democratic, Safe Hueso
Unlike his encounters in the San Diego City Hall bathrooms, Hueso will not find any surprises in this race.