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Some mixed news today out of Colorado courtesy of PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

PPP's new Colorado poll finds the exact same numbers in the races for both Governor and the Senate- Democratic incumbents John Hickenlooper and Mark Udall are clinging to 44/43 leads over their challengers Bob Beauprez and Cory Gardner respectively.

In the Governor's race this represents a significant tightening over the last four months. In March we had found Hickenlooper leading Beauprez 48/38. Since that time though Hickenlooper's approval rating has dropped a net 10 points, from 48/41 then to now 43/46. And Beauprez's net favorability has improved 14 points from 20/33 then to now 31/30. That movement's come largely among Republicans- he's gone from 33/22 to 57/12 within his own party as it's unified in the wake of last month's primary.

The closeness in the Senate race is nothing new though. Our last four polls have found Udall with leads of 2, 2, 4, and now 1 point. This is shaping up as yet another key Senate contest this year where the early blitz of negative advertising has left both candidates unpopular. Udall has an upside down approval rating at 36/47, but Gardner's not a whole lot more well liked with 34% of voters rating him favorably to 39% who have a negative opinion.

Things are looking pretty good for Republicans down the rest of the ballot. They hold leads of 8-10 points in the races for Secretary of State, Attorney General, and State Treasurer. Wayne Williams leads Joe Neguse 35/27 for Secretary of State, Cynthia Coffman has a 38/29 advantage over Don Quick for Attorney General, and Walker Stapleton is up 43/33 on Betsy Markey for State Treasurer. The high level of undecideds in all of those races leaves the Democrats with room to grow but for now the GOP candidates are very well positioned. - PPP, 7/22/14

While things might be looking good for the GOP right now, there's one thing that could hurt Cory Gardner:
BOULDER, CO - APRIL 12: Congressman Cory Gardner, stands with his supporters as he makes his case to be a Republican candidate on the ballot for the United State Senate. The Colorado Republican Party holds its state assembly for statewide candidates running for office at the Coors Event Center on the University of Colorado campus in Boulder. (Kathryn Scott Osler, The Denver Post)
The personhood movement is back for another try in Colorado this year but looks to be headed for another defeat with 45% of voters already opposed to this year's attempt at an amendment compared to only 40% who support it. Those numbers start out close, but historically personhood amendments have done worse and worse in the polls as the election has neared and voters have become more aware of their implications. So one that's behind in the polls even more than three months out from the election is not likely headed for a positive fate. - PPP, 7/22/14
Gardner has flip flopped a lot on this issue and Udall's been doing a great job reminding voters about Gardner's support.  Tough fights ahead of us here but it's far from over.  Click here to donate and get involved with Udall and Hickenlooper's campaigns:
http://markudall.com/
http://www.hickenlooperforcolorado.com/

Originally posted to pdc on Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 03:55 PM PDT.

Also republished by Colorado COmmunity and The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Too close for comfort.... (10+ / 0-)

    C'mon Colorado, get with the program.

    No snowflake in an avalanche ever feels responsible.

    by Magster on Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 04:13:09 PM PDT

    •  workin on it. (6+ / 0-)

      Hick is a distant doofus of a candidate, not surprised at his polling.

      Udall, though, is actually working hard to get re-elected. I am dubious of the Senate polling numbers. I have see no signs of a Gardner campaign & haven't heard anyone supporting him. Of course it's still July, campaigns are just ramping up.

      I expect both Hick & Udall will be re-elected, but I'm wearing rose colored glasses... Udall rocks, I'm happy he is my Senator. I'll vote for Hick only because of the (D) behind his name.

      The better I know people, the more I like my dog.

      by Thinking Fella on Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 04:33:59 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I LIKE Betsy Markey. I heard her speak and (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FindingMyVoice

    She is awesome. I hope she gets a boost.

    I yam what I yam --Popeye

    by BadKitties on Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 06:01:37 PM PDT

  •  Colorado seems to stay close until the vote, (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Thinking Fella

    but this state has been coming in around +5 when the chips are down. I would think Hick will pull out a win by roughly 4-6 and hopefully Udall too..

    I am expecting to see the lead open up in the favor of the Dems over the next 90 days. Living out here I can say i just don't see Hick losing...

  •  Remember a couple months ago when everyone here... (0+ / 0-)

    Remember a couple months ago when everyone here was telling us to ignore the media, that Colorado was not in play for the GOP? Same thing they said about Iowa.

    •  Well, what can you do? (0+ / 0-)

      The money advantage is going to be tough to overcome.  I don't know what else Udall or Braley can do at this point.  If they're not winning among independents, anything they do to change that will be seen as a betrayal by the liberal base.  

      We may have to just suffer through 2 years of a Republican senate and hope Ruth Bader Ginsberg stays healthy.

      •  Braley is hitting Ernst on Social Security which (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bufffan20, Thinking Fella

        is a great idea but Seniors always vote in midterm elections.  Udall is still painting Gardner as an extremist, the same route Bennet used against Buck in 2010.  Udall is a tough campaigner.  He can still win.

        Funny Stuff at http://www.funnyordie.com/oresmas

        by poopdogcomedy on Tue Jul 22, 2014 at 07:36:52 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Well, what can you do? (0+ / 0-)

      It is going to be hard to overcome the blitz of negative ads.   If both are doing okay among Democrats but slipping among independents, the only way for them to appeal to the independents may be to take a more conservative stand on some issues but then that will piss off the liberal base and suppress turnout. It's a quandary in these types of states.

      Hey, we may just have to suffer through 2 years of a GOP senate and hope Ruth Bader Ginsberg stays healthy.

    •  Don't believe the polls in Colorado (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Thinking Fella

      Pollsters also have a mediocre record in Colorado, where public polls have underestimated Democrats in seven of eight statewide contests over the last decade, by an average margin of 2.7 points. It’s been worse in the five contests since 2008, including a 4.7-point miss in the state’s 2010 Senate contest, when the Democrat, Michael Bennet, trailed in the polls but prevailed by nearly 2 points.

      With Mark Udall, a Democratic incumbent, ahead by 1.2 percentage points in the latest Huffington Post Pollster average — about the same poll margin as President Obama had before he won the state by 5.4 points in 2012 — it’s fair to wonder whether the race is really this close.

      Analysts have hypothesized that the Colorado problem is about Hispanic voters. There are certainly methodological reasons to think the polls miss Democratic-leaning Hispanic voters: Many pollsters do not conduct bilingual interviews, and Spanish-speaking Hispanic voters are likelier than English-speaking Hispanics to lean Democratic. Hispanic voters are also less likely to have a landline. A similar tendency for polls to underestimate Democrats has been observed in other states with a Democratic-leaning Latino population, like Nevada and Florida.

      On the other hand, Hispanic voters are only 14 percent of eligible voters in Colorado, and it is hard to generate a four- or five-point error out of perhaps 10 to 12 percent of the actual electorate. The full set of problems with Colorado polls remains something of a mystery.

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