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Sahil Kapur over at Talking Points Memo makes the case for a possible funding fight just before the elections.  Although few think this might lead to a shut down, this presents some VERY interesting possibilities for Democrats to make some substantial last minute gains in the elections.

First, here's the case Mr. Kapur makes.

... Congress is currently on course for a battle to keep the federal government funded when the new fiscal year begins on Oct. 1....  the appropriations process has screeched to a halt over extraneous policy issues and procedural disputes.


Once Congress returns from the August recess, it'll have a mere 10 working days to agree to a bill before the government partially shuts down. And there are two contentious issues in particular that are roped in with the CR debate.

The first is reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank, which supports billions of dollars in U.S. exports and thousands of American jobs through loan guarantees and other products. Its charter expires on Oct. 1, and many House conservatives, including incoming Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), are enthusiastic about shutting the bank down, bashing it as an emblem of corporate welfare and crony capitalism. Senate Democratic leaders recognize that and may force the issue by attaching renewal of the bank to their CR.


The second issue is the battle over President Barack Obama's recently proposed rules on coal-fired power plants to combat climate change. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who faces a tough reelection fight in his coal-heavy state, has aggressively fought to attach his amendment blocking the rule to appropriations legislation.

So given the number of times the Republicans have shutdown the Government or held the budget process hostage, or picked a fight over one thing or another, who do you think the uninformed voters who will be showing up at the polls in Nov. will blame for a big budget fight right before the election?

Am I mistaken, or do the Democrats have a golden opportunity to try and squeeze some things they want out of the Republicans?  Again, if this turns into a big fight, and why wouldn't Ted Cruz not want to jump into the middle of this, and everyone is pointing fingers at each other, and some Republicans are talking about impeachment while others are talking about suing the President and they're all talking about taking health insurance away from millions of Americans, why wouldn't the Democrats want this?

If Mr. Kapur is even half right about this, the Democrats have a great opportunity to turn some of these close races in their favor.  Opportunity is knocking, will the Democrats answer the door?

Originally posted to pollwatcher on Fri Jul 25, 2014 at 08:13 AM PDT.

Also republished by PostHuffPost: Connection-Conversation-Community .

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Comment Preferences

  •  The Democrats have a golden opportunity (9+ / 0-)

    And I hope they make the best of it.
    Nothing would help us sweep the drek out of the House better than a shutdown of the Government in October! Even a credible threat of shutdown would help, reminding everyone that earlier this session, they already did this.
    The lawsuit is not going anywhere, Impeachment won't come quickly enough, but a shutdown, no matter how partial, would be a raw wound for the GOP going into the mid-term.

    If I ran this circus, things would be DIFFERENT!

    by CwV on Fri Jul 25, 2014 at 08:32:37 AM PDT

  •  If they even come close to shutting down (8+ / 0-)

    The government again, the senate becomes safe D with pickup opportunities and the house comes into play.

    •  I'm not so sure about that (0+ / 0-)

      The Right has been amazingly successful in branding the last shutdown as "Obama's Shutdown".

      Yes, DailyKos DOES have puzzles! Visit us here Saturday nights @ 5:00 PDT (easier puzzles) and Sunday nights @ 5:00 PDT (more challenging) for a group solving. Even if you just pop in and comment while watching the fun, everybody is welcome. uid:21352

      by pucklady on Fri Jul 25, 2014 at 10:11:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This one would be shortly before Election Day. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        In the month following the shutdown, republicans were absolutely decimated and destroyed in the polls.

        •  Ok. I'll take your word for it. (0+ / 0-)

          I don't remember it that way, but you probably were paying better attention.

          Yes, DailyKos DOES have puzzles! Visit us here Saturday nights @ 5:00 PDT (easier puzzles) and Sunday nights @ 5:00 PDT (more challenging) for a group solving. Even if you just pop in and comment while watching the fun, everybody is welcome. uid:21352

          by pucklady on Fri Jul 25, 2014 at 10:19:44 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Remember all the DKos articles (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            And news stories talking about how it hurt the R's enough for the house to be in reach? The R's acted surprisingly confident in the face of it, so if SEEMED like they were winning the message war but very few bought their crap.

  •  Please proceed! :-) (6+ / 0-)

    Join us on the Black Kos front porch to review news and views written from a black pov—everyone is welcome.

    by TomP on Fri Jul 25, 2014 at 08:36:41 AM PDT

  •  I Don't Expect Uninformed Voters Showing Up In (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    limpidglass, Demi Moaned, Catte Nappe

    much quantity, with it being a non Presidential election.

    We usually get dis informed voters, disinformed mainly by the Republicans, so the hypothetical opportunity for Dems is always weakened.

    I see what others are saying about the great opportunity; I can't discount that, I don't have a great feel for it just now, but historically I'm inclined to cut any Dem optimism about non Presidential elections in half.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Fri Jul 25, 2014 at 08:39:21 AM PDT

  •  Ex/IM bank (0+ / 0-)

    I hope the Tea Party is successful in their efforts to shut down the Ex/IM bank. I am tired of the corporate welfare in this country at the expense of everything else.

    A broken clock may only be right twice a day, but in this case they are hitting the mark.

    Democrats should be helping them in the effort instead of attaching themselves to something that is a ripe symbol of crony capitalism such as the Ex/IM bank.

  •  I've been talking up the issue of the (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollwatcher, Losty, radarlady

    Export-Import Bank since McCarthy won the election for majority leader in the House so I'm glad to see that someone else is also on to this.

    There's been a lot of to-ing and fro-ing around this issue including a split in the House Republicans over it. Rep Chris Collins (R-NY) and other Republican House members have been circulating a letter urging the leadership to reauthorize Ex-Im, and the letter is endorsed by the US Chamber of Commerce and National Association of Manufacturers. Meanwhile, Heritage Action opposes it which puts them in direct conflict with the Chamber of Commerce.

    Meanwhile, Nancy Pelosi is prepared to stand firm on re-authorizing the Ex-Im Bank and is likely to have some House Republicans on her side. From mid-June this has looked to be the issue that could shut down the government again and people like Ted Cruz have a lot of pull and nothing to lose in forcing that to happen.

    Please note that lamps in the Magic Lamp Emporium are on a genie time-share program so there may be a slight delay in wish fulfillment. (◕‿◕)

    by Mopshell on Fri Jul 25, 2014 at 09:04:13 AM PDT

  •  Ok, they shut down the government (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pollwatcher, bluenick, radarlady

    over Obama care, EPIC FAIL. Can they really be THAT STUPID to shut down the government AGAIN, two months before the election.

    •  It won't take a shutdown (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sfbob, radarlady

      all it will take is a big fight and the threat of a shutdown.  If the Dems play their cards right, they could keep the Tea baggers alive for quite awhile.  Start negotiating for a rise in the minimum wage, or an end to oil subsidies with every amendment the Tea baggers offer.  Just keep it going.

  •  Let them because it worked so well of them the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    radarlady, pollwatcher

    last time......  Ted Cruz even wants them to run on it.  Between that and the Boehner lawsuit if the Democrats play things right they could be winners.....

  •  I personally would hate for it to happen (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    radarlady, pollwatcher, tidalwave1

    given that I work for the federal government and do kind of like getting my paycheck.

    I keep thinking that those folks could not POSSIBLY be so stupid as to shut the government down again weeks before an election. On the other hand, while they might not be that stupid they could very well be that deranged. But if they really want to screw themselves over I suppose there isn't much I can do.

  •  Shutdown the GOV ? elections (0+ / 0-)

    Hi. Pollster

    The GOP always says the USA should pay for things we use and lower the debt.

    Fact in 2013 the USA was 680 billion over budget.
    the lowest amount since Bill Clinton. how we did that is to go back to 39.5 taxes on the rich. Tax revenue.

    Now they say shutting down the government will save money. Every time we have done that, every one  laid off got their money back so NO savings happens.

    OH they will shutdown to please the Tea party members.
    Or get to the last hour then cave.

    OH at the current Ryan budget the USA will pay 23 billion in ten yrs. it will take 680 yrs to pay of 17.0 trillion dollars.

    IN others words we are not paying debt at all !

    A synthesizer can create any instrument made and others that have not be created yet.

    by RSGmusic on Sat Jul 26, 2014 at 01:12:32 PM PDT

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