Latino Americans are now the nations largest minority group and they are expected to become a considerably larger percentage of the total population by the middle of the century. The projection for 2050 by Pew Research shows them at about 30% of the population with whites having dropped to slightly less than half. It seems highly plausible that such a shift will have major impacts on many aspects of American society. There is also much discussion about the growing political impact of the Latino vote. Let's take a look at it.
The Latino population of the US grew from 12.5% in 2000 to 16.5% in 2012. This is a very rapid rate of growth in contrast to the total population which is growing at a much slower rate. This growth is a function of two sources, immigration and a higher than average birth rate. Immigration, for all of its political controversy, has now become a secondary source of growth for the Latino community. Native births are the primary source and will be likely to fuel the growth regardless of what might happen with immigration policy.
There is a larger percentage of the present Latino population that is not yet eligible to vote than with other groups. This comes not only from citizenship status, but also from the lower average age. This is rapidly changing as the more and more of the population becomes old enough to vote. Here is the Pew Center's projection of the electorate to 2030.
A significant reality of present Latino voting is a lower than average participation rate. Here is a profile of the Latino population in relation to the 2012 election.
As you can see a majority of them were not eligible to vote with most of that being a result of being under 18. Of those who were eligible a bit more than half actually voted. I think that it is interesting to look at this in comparison with the black electorate who are a group who were historically seen as not very likely to turn out to vote.
In the 2008 election black turnout was 64.7% and in 2012 it rose to 66.2% making it higher than the turnout of white voters. Whatever could have caused that dramatic change? His name is Barack Obama. Having a black candidate in the White House gave black voters the motivation to go to the polls. It seems likely that a chance to vote for Latino candidates and office holders will have a similar political impact on the Latino community.
This is a very useful link that provides a state by state breakdown of the present Latino electorate.
Mapping the 2012 Latino Electorate
It seems relevant to take a look at how much success Latinos have had in electing Latinos to office where they have already become a major political bloc. The three states with the strongest concentration of Latinos are California, New Mexico and Texas. Here's my effort at an analysis of their political accomplishments in those states in relation to their voting power.
This would seem to indicate that they are being pretty effective. New Mexico is obviously the place where they have the strongest political base and they are pretty much fully realizing their potential. The Results in California and Texas are very close despite what most of us would view as two states with very different political climates. In both places they are showing political clout. I would predict that with growth in the number of elected Latino officials and the political influence that goes with that, we can to expect an increase in the participation rate for Latino voters as well as the population changes that will greatly increase the number of Latinos eligible to vote.
The Latino electorate is an awakening giant that is a growing giant. These changes cannot fail to bring major changes to the American political landscape.