The U.S. Senate race featuring Democrat Bruce Braley is just one reason Iowa is a must-watch state.
As it became time to prepare the third go-round of our state power rankings, a problem immediately materialized. Under the criteria in place up to this point, there were simply too few changes. The dog days of summer typically don't see a ton of movement in our race ratings, as prudence often dictates to wait until it can be better assessed who is prepared for the long haul into November.
Since the bulk of the state power rankings were based on race ratings, however, that meant a stagnant top ten. So, an additional metric was added to the rubric. In addition to the race ratings (and how they accumulate points can be seen at the end of the piece), it was decided that a point would be added for every individual general election poll in the prior month per individual contest. After all, if the state power rankings were meant to give readers an idea of what states will be the most pivotal in November, it makes sense to add a gauge for what races are getting the attention of pollsters, even at this comparably early point. Only general election polls were included, to avoid a "primary effect." To wit: Mississippi would've been on the doorstep of the list had primary polls been included. Unless Chris McDaniel carries his hissy fit protest of the runoff results into the fall, and his entreaties actually find purchase in the soil of the Mississippi electorate, there will be pretty much no reason to care about the Magnolia State come November.
So, with this new metric added to the mix, there was some legitimate movement, and a new and deserving occupant in the top spot. Follow me past the jump for the new edition of the state-by-state power rankings.
For those interested in the criteria, which has changed with the incorporation of the polling data, please flip to the end of the piece.
There has been a lot of movement within the top ten this month, but only one wholesale exit and entry. Arizona slid just outside of the top ten, and remains the most absurdly under-polled state in the Union. Indeed, to this point, the only polling interest in the state appears to be among interest groups scoping out the GOP gubernatorial primary. The general could be very close (the last time it was polled, in March, Democrat Fred DuVal was right in the mix), but no one has polled it in four months. Meanwhile, there are a trio of legitimate races in the U.S. House, and two of them have seen no legitimate polling to date, even from affiliated interest groups.
In its place is New Hampshire, where the partisan parity cycle-to-cycle ensures that the Granite State is always a state to watch in November.
Truthfully, any of these top ten states are going to be worth talking about on Election night. This month, instead of talking momentum and movement, let's go through the roster of races in each state that make these states worth keeping both eyes on come November. For those new to the power rankings, this will give a hint at what is at stake come Election Day. For the veterans, this can serve as an early clip-and-save guide.
#10—WEST VIRGINIA (18 points—Six competitive contests)
Last month: 8
West Virginia is one of those states that dropped only because of a relative dearth of polling. Pound for pound, however, there might not be another state with as much on the docket as the Mountaineer State. It has long been assumed that the open U.S. Senate seat was a goner for the Democrats (Democratic incumbent Jay Rockefeller is retiring), but Democrat Natalie Tennant is hanging in rather stubbornly, and is acquitting herself well. Terrain make the GOP a favorite, but veteran Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is going to have to work for it. Add the fact that all three U.S. House seats are, at some level, competitive, and Democrats are defending both state legislative chambers against an increasingly hostile electorate, and West Virginia (for the first time in a long time) is worth keeping both eyes on the state.
WV-Sen (Open Seat): Sec. of State Natalie Tennant (D) vs. Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R)
WV-01: Rep. David McKinley (R) vs. state Auditor Glen Gainer (D)
WV-02 (Open Seat): Former MD state chair Alex Mooney (R) vs. former WV state chair Nick Casey (D)
WV-03: Rep. Nick Rahall (D) vs. state Sen. Evan Jenkins (R)
WV-State House: Democrats defending a narrow (53-47) majority.
WV-State Senate: Democrats defending a larger (24-10) majority.
#9—NEW HAMPSHIRE (19 points—Six competitive contests)
Last month: NR
As mentioned earlier, New Hampshire would make pretty much any cycle's edition of a state-by-state power raining, because the state has a level of partisan parity that is hard to find anywhere else. Though the state has been known to offer an individual blowout election here and there (2010 was a notable, and painful, example), the state seems to drift back and forth with the prevailing political winds. That actually makes the state, despite its relative lack of size and diversity, a fairly decent bellwether for national trends. It was a great state for Republicans in 2010, and swung back to the blue team in 2012. Where will it land in 2014? It's still too early to tell, but the best indicators won't be the top of the ticket. Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) seems quite popular, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) is likely to face a dude whose claim to fame is being a U.S. Senator ... in another state. Watch the two U.S. House seats, and the direction of the state legislature, for clues early in the night (New Hampshire is one of the "early closing" states on Election Night).
(New Hampshire's primary is still to come. Likely challengers are named here.)
NH-Gov: Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) vs. businessman Walt Havenstein (R)
NH-Sen: Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. former MA-Sen. Scott Brown (R)
NH-01: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) vs. former Rep. Frank Guinta (R)
NH-02: Rep. Annie Kuster (D) vs. ??? (very tight primary here)
NH-State House: Democrats defending a narrow (220-180) majority
NH-State Senate: Republicans defending a narrow (13-11) majority
#8—ILLINOIS (20 points—Six competitive contests)
Last month: 6
Illinois is a state with no small amount of peril for Democrats this year. On the surface, that might seem quite odd. After all, Illinois has long been hailed among the bluest of blue states, the home state of President Obama and a state that Democrats have long automatically included in their electoral vote tallies. However, two things combine to cause Democratic palpitations this fall in the Land of Lincoln. For one thing, there is a lot of the state that is neutral-to-hostile territory. Cook County covers up a lot of red in the state, quite frankly. For another thing, 2012 was such a killer cycle (thanks to one of the few blue-tinted remaps in the nation) for the Democrats that this cycle is almost entirely about defense. Of the six competitive races on the docket, only one of them is in a GOP-held seat.
IL-Gov: Gov. Pat Quinn (D) vs. businessman Bruce Rauner (R)
IL-10: Rep. Brad Schneider (D) vs. former Rep. Bob Dold! (R)
IL-11: Rep. Bill Foster (D) vs. state Rep. Darlene Senger (R)
IL-12: Rep. Bill Enyart (D) vs. state Rep. Mike Bost (R)
IL-13: Rep. Rodney Davis (R) vs. former circuit court judge Ann Callis (D)
IL-17: Rep. Cheri Bustos (D) vs. former Rep. Bobby Schilling (R)
#7—MICHIGAN (21 points—Seven competitive contests)
Last month: 5
Michigan will almost certainly be at or near the top five for the duration of the cycle—this drop was due almost entirely to a comparable dearth of polling which has not been an issue in July, and is unlikely to be one going forward. As folks who were in Detroit just last week for Netroots Nation are now more acutely aware, there is a ton going on in the state this year, including a pair of huge, competitive races at the top of the ticket. Add to that four competitive U.S. House races and a fierce Democratic attempt to claw their way back into the majority in at least one legislative chamber (the state Senate might be a two-cycle project), and NN14 will almost certainly not be the last time everyone in the Daily Kos universe talks about Michigan this year.
(Michigan's primary is still to come. Likely challengers are named here.)
MI-Gov: Gov. Rick Snyder (R) vs. former Rep. Mark Schauer (D)
MI-Sen (Open Seat): Rep. Gary Peters (D) vs. former Sec. of State Terri Land (R)
MI-01: Rep. Dan Benishek (R) vs. former sheriff Jerry Cannon (D)
MI-07: Rep. Tim Walberg (R) vs. former state Rep. Pam Byrnes (D)
MI-08 (Open Seat): Former state Sen. Mike Bishop (R) vs. county treasurer Eric Schertzing (D)
MI-11: ??? vs. ??? (Both primaries are very competitive)
MI-State House: Republicans defending a narrow (59-51) majority
#6—CALIFORNIA (21 points—Eight competitive contests)
Last month: 7
California, despite a couple of interesting downballot statewide races, is all about the U.S. House of Representatives. No less than eight competitive House races are on the docket, and both parties have seats in some degree of peril. For the Democrats to harbor any hopes of slicing deeper into the GOP majority, they need to hold their own here, and pick off at least one seat, and ideally two. The first steal from the Republicans could be relatively easy (the open 31st district is one of the seats most likely to flip in the nation). The second one? Considerably tougher.
CA-03: Rep. John Garamendi (D) vs. state assemblyman Dan Logue (R)
CA-07: Rep. Ami Bera (D) vs. former Rep. Doug Ose (R)
CA-10: Rep. Jeff Denham (R) vs. farmer Michael Eggman (D)
CA-21: Rep. David Valadao (R) vs. former Hill aide Amanda Renteria (D)
CA-26: Rep. Julia Brownley (D) vs. state assemblyman Jeff Gorell (D)
CA-31 (Open Seat): businessman Paul Chabot (R) vs. Redlands mayor Pete Aguilar (D)
CA-36: Rep. Raul Ruiz (D) vs. state assemblyman Brian Nestande (R)
CA-52: Rep. Scott Peters (D) vs. former SD councilman Carl DeMaio (R)
#5—FLORIDA (23 points—Four competitive contests)
Last month: 10
Florida may well have the most-watched single race on the 2014 electoral calendar, with the pitched battle for governor between incumbent Republican Rick Scott and the man who once held that office as a Republican, Charlie Crist. Crist's political metamorphosis began as Scott was planning his 2010 gubernatorial bid, and it became complete last year, when Crist shocked precisely no one by declaring that he would seek the office he once held, only this time as a Democrat. But Florida is about more than Scott versus Crist. There are a trio of House races worth keeping an eye on. And while an effective GOP gerrymander has pulled the state legislature out of reach for the Democrats during this cycle, they have high hopes of carving into the outsized GOP majorities in the lege.
(Florida's primary is still to come. Likely challengers are named here.)
FL-Gov: Gov. Rick Scott (R) vs. former Gov. Charlie Crist (D)
FL-02: Rep. Steve Southerland (R) vs. attorney Gwen Graham (D)
FL-18: Rep. Patrick Murphy (D) vs. former state Rep. Carl Domino (R)
FL-26: Rep. Joe Garcia (D) vs. Miami-Dade school board member Carlos Curbelo (R)
#4—ARKANSAS (26 points—Five competitive contests)
Last month: 4
For the past few cycles, Arkansas has been pretty sleepy come Election Day. The state's pronounced march to the political right has stripped the state of any Democratic members of the House, and a state legislative majority for the GOP for the first time since shortly after the Earth cooled. But 2014 promises to be an intriguing cycle in the Natural State. A tight open seat gubernatorial race is married at the top of the ticket with a U.S. Senate battle which might be priority one for both parties come November. Also, unlike the last cycle (where no House race was even close to single digits), Democrats are fairly bullish on two of their contenders in open seat U.S. House contests. Finally, the state House is very much on the table. Republicans claimed it in 2012, but the majority is as narrow as they come, and this is a state where local Democrats probably prefer to see Pryor and Ross atop the ticket, as opposed to the president.
AR-Gov (Open Seat): former Rep. Mike Ross (D) vs. former Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R)
AR-Sen: Sen. Mark Pryor (D) vs. Rep. Tom Cotton (R)
AR-02 (Open Seat): banker French Hill (R) vs. N. Little Rock Mayor Patrick Hays (D)
AR-04 (Open Seat): state Rep. Bruce Westerman (R) vs. former FEMA director James Lee Witt (D)
AR-State House: Republicans defending a narrow (51-49) majority
#3—NEW YORK (26 points—Nine competitive contests)
Last month: 2
New York, like California, is pivotal to the fortunes of both parties in the U.S. House of Representatives. Since virtually every seat is Democratic-held, the goal for Democrats is to retain their outsized edge in the Empire State. That said, they actually have a trio of legitimate targets, which make up three of the five Republicans in the delegation! Arguably, however, the marquee contest in New York is at the legislative level. The state of play in the state Senate is so bizarre that it would take a month to explain it. The Democrats have more members, but not a governing majority, because a corps of renegade Democrats formed their own coalition, and caucused with the GOP for organizational purposes. This has led to a clusterfuck, filled with enough palace intrigue to fuel a political television drama series. The latest example of said intrigue came earlier in the month, when the slimy aforementioned coalition's self-preservation technique of promising to (maybe ... sorta) reconvene with the mainstream Dems was bought not just by Gov. Cuomo (which did nothing to tamp down speculation that he wants a GOP-controlled state Senate), but also NYC Mayor Bill DeBlasio. Ugh.
NY-01: Rep. Tim Bishop (D) vs. state Sen. Lee Zeldin (R)
NY-04 (Open Seat): county DA Kathleen Rice (D) vs. attorney Bruce Blakeman (R)
NY-11: Rep. Mike Grimm (R) vs. NYC councilman Domenic Recchia (D)
NY-18: Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) vs. former Rep. Nan Hayworth (R)
NY-19: Rep. Chris Gibson (R) vs. venture capitalist Sean Eldridge (D)
NY-21 (Open Seat): filmmaker Aaron Woolf (D) vs. former WH aide Elise Stefanik (R)
NY-23: Rep. Tom Reed (R) vs. county legislator Martha Robertson (D)
NY-24: Rep. Dan Maffei (R) vs. attorney John Katko (R)
NY-State Senate: Republican defending a bizarre (35-29, w/IDC) "majority"
#2—COLORADO (28 points—Six competitive contests)
Last month: 1
Earlier this week, PPP released a new poll showing both Democratic incumbents in the marquee statewide races in Colorado leading their GOP challengers ... by a single point. There are few states on the 2014 electoral calendar where both of the top statewide races are polling that competitively. Colorado has more to watch than just those two races, however. Democrats currently control the levers of power in Denver (the state capitol), but all three levers of that power are in some degree of peril. Also, arguably the most expensive and most competitive U.S. House race in the nation may well occur in the suburbs south of Denver (in Colorado's 6th district), in what is a fairly rare case of a Republican incumbent at major risk.
CO-Gov: Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) vs. former Rep. Bob Beauprez (R)
CO-Sen: Sen. Mark Udall (D) vs. Rep. Cory Gardner (R)
CO-03: Rep. Scott Tipton (R) vs. former state Rep. Abel Tapia (D)
CO-06: Rep. Mike Coffman (R) vs. former state Rep. Andrew Romanoff (D)
CO-State House: Democrats defending a somewhat narrow (37-28) majority
CO-State Senate: Democrats defending a very narrow (18-17) majority
#1—IOWA (30 points—Eight competitive contests)
Last month: 3
The safest bet in this electoral cycle? Without a doubt, it is betting that Iowa and Colorado remain in the top five of the state-by-state power rankings from now until November. Look at Iowa: really, what doesn't it have to entice an electoral junkie on election night? It has a pivotal battle for control of the U.S. Senate that is moving ever closer (to the consternation of Democrats) towards tossup status. It has a classic sleeper race where the Democrats are tantalizingly close to throwing a once-in-a-career scare into a guy that has been the governor of the state for nearly two decades, and is looking to start his third decade as Iowa's governor. And every single U.S. House seat is competitive at some level. As if that isn't enough, both legislative chambers (one held by each party) are in legitimate peril of being flip. Hell, if you include individual state legislative seats, it is not an exaggeration to say that there are somewhere around thirty races on Election Night worth watching. And, at the risk of editorializing, it is no accident that this state, with a ton of political intrigue, has a nonpartisan redistricting program.
IA-Gov: Gov. Terry Branstad (R) vs. state Sen. Jack Hatch (D)
IA-Sen (Open Seat): Rep. Bruce Braley (D) vs. state Sen. Joni Ernst (R)
IA-01 (Open Seat): state Rep. Pat Murphy (D) vs. businessman Rod Blum (R)
IA-02: Rep. David Loebsack (D) vs. ophthalmologist Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)
IA-03 (Open Seat): former Hill staffer David Young (R) vs. former state Sen. Staci Appel (D)
IA-04: Rep. Steve King (R) vs. former Pentagon official Jim Mowrer (D)
IA-State House: Republicans defending a narrow (53-47) majority
IA-State Senate: Democrats defending a narrow (26-24) majority
Next month, we will return to look at movement and momentum in each of these individual states and key contests. But, for now, if nothing else, it should be clear to anyone (election junkie or casual reader) that anyone who discounts 2014 as a "boring" election cycle is pretty well full of it. You could ignore the other 40 states in the Union (which, by the way, you really should not do), and there is more than enough just in these 10 states to keep you up late on the 4th of November.
Criteria:
The criteria for the state power rankings was based on a fairly simple point system. States were awarded points on the following basis (race ratings were culled from our DKE ratings for the House, Senate, and gubernatorial races):
- 8 points for a gubernatorial/U.S. Senate race deemed a tossup.
- 6 points for a state legislative chamber deemed a tossup.
- 4 points for a gubernatorial/U.S. Senate race deemed as "leaning" to a party.
- 4 points for each U.S. House race deemed a tossup.
- 3 points for a state legislative chamber deemed as "leaning" for a party.
- 2 points for a gubernatorial/U.S. Senate race deemed as "likely" for a party.
- 2 points for each U.S. House race deemed as "leaning" to a party.
- 1 point for a U.S. House race or a state legislative chamber deemed as "likely" for a party.
- New: 1 point for every general election poll conducted in the preceding month.