Will Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee get a Democratic state Senate? We'll know more after Tuesday's primary.
This November, both parties will be working hard to try and take control of the Washington state Senate. On paper, Democrats hold a 25-24 majority. However, two nominal Democrats have allied themselves with the Republicans to run the chamber. While Democrats only need to net two seats, Republicans also have their own pick-up opportunities. The battle to take the state Senate is expected to be hard-fought and very close. If Democrats can flip the chamber, they will have complete control of the state government (the Democratic House majority is usually viewed as safe). That gives Team Blue every incentive to fight hard here, and it gives Republicans every reason to try and hold their narrow edge.
The good news is that we'll soon have a good idea of where each party stands in each seat. On August 5, Washington will hold its top-two primary, the fourth such statewide contest since the system was reinstated in 2008. All candidates from each party will run together on the same ballot, with the top-two vote-getters advancing to November.
California and Washington are the only states that use this primary system (Louisiana has a variation of it, but with several key differences). In a past article, I observed that the California top-two results are not very predictive at all when it comes to the general election. In 2012, the June California primary results often had little in common with the November returns, underestimating Democrats by as much as 34 points. However, Washington is different. In the past, the Washington primary has been very good at giving us a preview of November, especially in two-person contests. Washington generally has far better primary turnout than California, and the Evergreen State's primary electorate looks more like the November electorate than California's does.
August 5 will only be the beginning of the fight to control the Washington Senate. However, it will be important in telling us where each party stands in several key Senate contests. Both parties and their allies will decide what races to focus on and what races to triage based on how things go in August. If the past three cycles are any indication, the August top-two primary results are an important window into each competitive district's electoral mood.
Head below the fold to find out more.
To separate the 2008-2012 competitive races from the ones that were safe for one party, I used a few criteria. I only included races where one Democrat and one Republican made it to November. From there, I included any race where the primary or general election margin between Republicans and Democrats was within 10 points. If the primary margin and the general election margin between the two parties were both larger than 10 points, I did not include the race. (There were no races where one party won the primary by more than 10 points, but the other party won the general a few months later by more than 10). Note that Washington is split into 49 legislative districts. Each district receives two House members and one senator. The two House members are each elected every two years: Candidates must choose whether to run for the A or B seat (also called position one and position two). The two House seats make up identical territory. Half of the Senate is up every two years.
For our purposes, there are two types of top-two primaries we want to look at: Ones where there were only two candidates on the primary ballot, and ones where there were three or more candidates running. On August 5, all the major state Senate primaries will only have two candidates on the ballot: These primaries are really dress rehearsals for the main event in November because both candidates will be advancing to the general no matter what. Since the exact same people will be facing off again in November, we get a good apples-to-apples comparison when looking at the primary and general results.
The median change in the margin of victory from August to November is only 3.36 percent. In 30 of these 41 two-person races, the primary election margin was within five points of the general election margin.
When there are only two candidates to consider, the top-two is quite good at predicting what party will win in November. In 37 of these 41 races, the party that won the most votes in the primary won in November. For the most part, even when the top-two projected the wrong eventual winner in a two-person primary, the result was still pretty close. The top-two predicted a close finish, and we got a close finish.
The top-two with three or more candidates:
It's not an issue in Tuesday's Senate races, but it is worth noting that the top-two primary tends to be a less accurate predictor when there are more than two candidates involved. Below is a table of races where three or more candidates were on the primary ballot.
Overall, these primary results were still pretty good at giving us an idea of how things would look in November. The median change from the primary to the general was 5.66 percent, which isn't bad at all. A 5.66 percent change can turn a close defeat into a close victory (or vice versa), but it would still give us a general idea of whether or not a race is close. Some primaries almost exactly nailed the general election margin. For instance, in the primary for the 2012 gubernatorial race, Democrats took more votes by a 52-to-48 margin. In November, Democrat Jay Inslee defeated Republican Rob McKenna by the same margin.
The problem is that the presence of multiple candidates can sometimes skew the primary results. The HD-14A primary in 2008 is one dramatic example: Six Republicans took almost a combined 70 percent, with the lone Democrat at 30 percent. In the general things narrowed considerably, with Team Red winning only by about 53-47.
The WA-08 result in 2010 is another example. Republican Rep. Dave Reichert and Democratic challenger Suzan DelBene were widely expected to advance to November, and none of the other candidates were particularly well-known. However, minor Democratic, Republican, and third party candidates still took a combined 26 percent of the primary vote. Ultimately, the Republicans "won" the primary by a gaudy 58-40, but Reichert only prevailed in November by a 52-48 margin.
When dealing with top-two primaries with more than two candidates, an extra dose of caution is needed. This doesn't mean to ignore the primary results; races like the 2012 gubernatorial contest and the 1st Congressional District race that same year indicate that the top-two results can still be very predictive of the final results. But crowded primaries, especially ones with several strong candidates or where independents take a significant portion of the vote, look like they are prone to wild swings in November.
Looking to the 2014 primary:
Below are a list of races to watch on Tuesday. They are all two-person races, so we should get a good idea of what is really competitive and what isn't.
Some of these are fairly long-shot pickup opportunities, and may get left by the wayside if they aren't close on Tuesday. SD-48 is considered a very likely Democratic pickup, but both sides will keep an eye out for surprises. It's also likely that any unexpectedly close result in other districts will get some attention from both parties.
One big thing to watch for is if any of these candidates take in less than 47 percent on Tuesday. Of past two-person primaries we've looked at, only one candidate has lost by about six points in August but gone one to win in November: Democrat Tim Probst. Team Blue did get close to turning a 54-46 primary deficit into a win in 2012, falling only 0.30 percent short in HD-47A. Still, a six-point deficit should probably be seen as the minimum a candidate can take in the primary to have a chance in November.
Past history suggests that in two-person races, Democrats are the ones with room to grow. In 30 of these 41 races, the Democratic candidate won more support in November than in August. Still, no Democratic candidate should be satisfied with a narrow primary lead. In 2008 Republican Mike Hope turned a narrow primary deficit into a tight win. With the stakes so big in November, Democrats should not let themselves get caught napping.
The top-two primary is by no means perfect at predicting how things will look in November, even with only two candidates. Each district and each contest is different, and every election night has its share of surprises. Still, Tuesday will give us a sense for the playing field ahead of August. It will help us determine what contests may be closer than expected, what districts won't be going anywhere, and what races will be targeted in the general. August 5 is the biggest test yet for these campaigns, and the top-two results will give us a good idea if they're ready for November.