• KS-Sen (R): Republican Sen. Pat Roberts' long service in Congress has made him a tempting target for the tea party. Roberts' re-election got more complicated in February, when it emerged that Roberts barely lived in his nominal home state. Tea party groups and their allies have gotten behind physician Milton Wolf, who happens to be a distant cousin of Barack Obama.
Roberts' greatest asset in the race may turn out to be Wolf himself. The challenger found himself in hot water in early 2014 after news broke about his habit of posting pictures of dead and injured people on Facebook and making jokes about them. The story resurfaced just weeks before the primary after the Kansas Board of Healing Arts announced that they were investigating Wolf's actions. Polls have consistently shown Roberts clearly ahead of Wolf, but both sides are continuing to fight hard here. (Update: A new Google Consumer Surveys poll for Daily Kos finds Roberts up 53-39). A Wolf victory would be a major upset but in a season full of Republican primary surprises, it cannot be ruled out.
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• KS-01 (R): Sophomore Republican Rep. Tim Huelskamp is about as conservative as it gets, but his style has made him a number of enemies. Huelskamp's dispute with House Republican leaders got him thrown off the Agriculture Committee, and his support for cutting federal farm subsidies has only further angered local interests back home. A mysterious group called Now or Never PAC has spent $260,000 hitting Huelskamp on agricultural issues, and powerful organizations like the Kansas Farm Bureau have made their displeasure with Huelskamp known.
The man who may benefit from all this is Alan LaPolice, a former school district superintendent. LaPolice has not raised much money and got very little attention until the final week of the race. Huelskamp for his part does not seem to have taken LaPolice seriously, barely spending any money in this contest. A poll from LaPolice's allies at Now or Never found Huelskamp up 50-29 in the final week of the contest, and it still looks like this contest is Huelskamp's to lose. Still, even if LaPolice falls short as expected, a good performance could mean more challenges to Huelskamp in 2016.
• KS-04 (R): Sophomore Rep. Mike Pompeo looked like he was in for an easy re-election campaign until his predecessor Todd Tiahrt unexpectedly jumped into the contest. Tiahrt, who represented this Wichita-area seat from 1995 until his unsuccessful 2010 Senate bid, initially looked like the clear underdog here. However, a recent SurveyUSA poll shows Pompeo up by only seven points. Pompeo wasted little time releasing his own numbers, showing himself winning 45-26.
A few groups are spending to help Tiahrt, seemingly due more to personal dislike for Pompeo than anything else. Even if Tiahrt is closing the gap, it looks like he has a tough path to victory. Pompeo does not appear to have done anything to alienate conservative Republican primary voters, and Tiahrt appears to be relying on moderates to put him over the top. Tiahrt is too well known to count out, but a Pompeo defeat would be a big surprise here.
To help keep track of Michigan's House races, we've included this interactive map of the state below.
• MI-04 (R): Long-time Republican Rep. Dave Camp is calling it quits in this central Michigan seat. Two credible Republicans are running to succeed him: businessman and state GOP finance chair Paul Mitchell, and state Sen. John Moolenaar. Moolenaar has the support of Camp and likely started the race better known. However, Mitchell has heavily outspent Moolenaar in the last weeks of the race and made an early impression with a creative ad. The race has gotten very negative, with both candidates hitting each others' conservative credentials. A recent poll shows the race deadlocked, and it's anyone's guess who will come out on top here.
• MI-06 (R): Republican Rep. Fred Upton has had some weak primary wins in the past, and is worth keeping an eye on for Tuesday. Even so, a win for Ron Paul activist Jim Bussler would be a complete shock. Bussler has raised little money, and outside groups aren't playing here. A weak Upton win would probably set him up for a stronger challenge in 2016 or convince him to retire, but a Bussler victory would be a surprise on par with Eric Cantor's loss.
• MI-08 (R): Republican Rep. Mike Rogers is giving up this Lansing-area seat. The Republican primary is a duel between former state Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop and state Rep. Tom McMillin. Bishop looks like the clear frontrunner, bringing in much more cash and leading 45-33 in the only released poll of the primary. Bishop also has Rogers' endorsement. The winner will likely take on Democratic Ingham County Treasurer Eric Schertzing, who faces minimal primary opposition of his own.
• MI-11 (R & D): Freshman Republican Rep. Kerry Bentivolio has had a target on his back even before he entered the House. Bentivolio, a virtually unknown reindeer farmer, won his suburban Detroit seat in a fluke in 2012 after then-Rep. Thad McCotter was thrown off the ballot. The Republican establishment was unable to defeat Bentivolio in a write-in campaign in the 2012 primary, but this time they have wealthy foreclosure attorney Dave Trott. Through a mix of personal funds and fundraising, Trott has spent far more than the incumbent, swamping him $459,000 to $52,000 in the final weeks of the race. Bentivolio has not helped his situation by having only a minimal presence on the campaign trail. A recent poll showed Trott leading 53-31, and it would be a massive surprise if Bentivolio can pull off a win here.
Democrats may have a shot in this 52-47 Romney seat, especially given some of Trott's ugly history. National Democrats recruited former State Department official Bobby McKenzie to run here. However, physician Anil Kumar has outspent McKenzie and could come out on top Tuesday.
• MI-14 (D): Democratic Rep. Gary Peters is vacating this Detroit-area seat to run for the Senate, and three credible Democrats are campaigning here. Initially, Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence looked like the clear frontrunner over state Rep. Rudy Hobbs. However, former Rep. Hansen Clarke entered the race at the last minute and complicated things.
For a long time this looked like a two-person fight between Clarke and Lawrence. However, in the last week of the race Hobbs has looked like the one with the momentum. Hobbs has been the best fundraiser of the bunch and he has been consolidating important establishment endorsements. A recent poll for a pro-Hobbs group gave him a surprising lead, with him taking 39 percent to Clarke's 25 and Lawrence's 22. Anything can happen here but it's looking like Hobbs may be able to pull off a victory that few though possible only weeks ago.
• WA-04 (2): Republican Rep. Doc Hastings is leaving behind his conservative inland seat, setting up a crowded battle that may be fiercely contested all the way to November. In Washington all the candidates run on one ballot in the "top-two primary": The two people with the most votes advance to November regardless of party.
Eight Republicans are running here. The two who look like they have the best chance to make it to November look like former NFL player and 2012 Public Land Commissioner nominee Clint Didier and former state Agricultural Director Dan Newhouse. Didier is more tea party flavored, while Newhouse is more establishment oriented. State Sen. Janea Holmquist Newbry and attorney George Cicotte also look like they have a shot.
Two Democrats are running and it's unclear if either of them will make it to the general or not. Team Blue would have a tough time winning this 60 percent Romney seat, but a Republican versus Republican match would keep things interesting here until November. With so many Republicans running there may be a slim chance that both Democrats advance and lock the Republicans out of the general election, but Team Blue shouldn't count on it.