Hey everyone. First off, sorry if this past week wasn't as prolific as it usually is but work's been pretty busy. Pushing to have a lot of diaries this week. Since we are now in August and we have three months to go until Election Day, I wanted to let you all know my current Senate race ratings and which races I will be focusing more diaries on. So for the next three months, expect way more diaries on these races. First, here are the top eight races that I consider to be very competitive and will deserve a lot of attention. These race ratings could change after August:
1. Arkansas: Mark Pryor (D) vs. Tom Cotton (R)
Senator Mark Pryor has one of the toughest races this year. He's running in a very red state where Obama is deeply unpopular and he has a tough opponent in Tea Party Congressman Tom Cotton. But this race is far from over a few reasons. Pryor is not this year's Blanche Lincoln. He's still well liked and he's been running an excellent campaign against Cotton hitting him on voting against federal disaster relief, refinancing student loan interest rates, supporting gutting Social Security and Medicare and for recently voting against pediatric research at Arkansas' Children's Hospital. On the surface, Cotton looks like a strong candidate, an Iraq War veteran who is loved by Bill Kristol. But even GOP consultants fear he'll make too many mistakes and his personality won't connect with voters. Factors working in Pryor's favor are his support for raising the minimum wage in Arkansas which has huge support from the voters and surprisingly, Obamacare. Thanks to Medicaid expansion, the uninsured rate has dropped dramatically in Arkansas and Pryor's even touting his vote for the Affordable Care Act. Most polling has given the lead to Cotton but most of those polls are GOP polling firms and Pryor's own internal polling gives him the edge. PPP has showed this race to continuously be a toss up and I trust PPP's number the most.
August Rating: Toss Up
2. Louisiana: Mary Landrieu (D) vs. Bill Cassidy (R)
Louisiana is another state that continues to move more into the red and we may not know who is the winner until December due to Louisiana's jungle primary. Landrieu isn't getting above the 50% mark just yet and PPP showed her and Cassidy tied in the runoff. At this point, Cassidy looks like the sure candidate for the GOP and I doubt Tea Party candidates like Rob Maness (R. LA) will be a problem for Cassidy. Now the Landrieu has been touting her support for Medicaid expansion which is popular in Louisiana and she is going to be backed by the Chamber of Commerce. The oil industry will back Cassidy because they believe he'll be the one to get the Keystone XL Pipeline approved. Landrieu has won her fair share of tough races and I think she can win this one but it's going to be a long and tough race.
August Rating: Toss Up
3. Alaska: Mark Begich vs. ?
Begich has been running an excellent campaign and has been leading in the polls. He's the man who helped spark the call to expand Social Security so that alone earns him support. You may not agree with his positions on gun control and oil drilling but he's on the right side of several issues, especially when it comes to Native American affairs. He's also proven to be an effective Senator and he's very good at reaching out to his constituents. He's won his fair share of tight races and he's known for quite some time now that he would be a top target for the GOP. The Kochs are spending big to defeat him but he has his own Super PAC working in his favor. Lately he's been pissing off his colleague, Senator Lisa Murkowski (R. AK), with an ad hyping up their working relationship. It's a great ad but there's always a chance it could backfire if Murkowski keeps making a big stink about it. Remember, Murkowski won re-election by being a write-in candidate in 2010 and needed Democrats help but of course she wants to get on GOP voters good sides when 2016 comes around. There's also the matter of who Begich's opponent will be. Right now Dan Sullivan (R. AK), Karl Rove and the Club for Growth's preferred candidate, looks like his likely opponent but Lt. Governor Mead Treadwell (R. AK) has been coming up in the polls and Tea Party wild card Joe Miller (R. AK) could still help split GOP voters, even if he is in third place. Miller has a good relationship with Alaska's Libertarian Party so we'll see how it goes. Extreme conservative third party candidates have been beneficial to Democrats in Alaska before so history might repeat itself. Plus both Sullivan and Treadwell have their flaws. Sullivan is a wealthy carpetbagger and has made an idiot of himself with an ad where he's standing atop Anchorage's Dena'ina Civic and Convention Center -- a $100 million edifice that was hailed in 2009 as the crowning achievement of then-Mayor Mark Begich after claiming Begich has never delivered for Alaska. Treadwell's flaws are having a role in a company that took stimulus money and for trying to disenfranchise Alaska Natives, who are big supporters of Begich. Democrats are amping up voter outreach to Alaska Natives, which make up 19% of the electorate, so they could help Begich secure a second term. They helped win his tight race against Senator Ted Stevens (R. AK) in 2008. Not to mention marijuana legalization and raising the minimum wage are also on the ballot this November and voters overwhelming support both initiatives. That can only help with voter turnout which is a plus for Begich. Begich can still win regardless of who the GOP nominee is.
August Rating: Toss Up
4. North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D) vs. Thom Tillis (R)
PPP's last poll showed Hagan with a decent lead over the former State House Speaker. The GOP controlled General Assembly is deeply unpopular and Tillis is the face of the North Carolina/Art Pope extremist agenda. From voter ID laws to ending unemployment benefits to education cuts to denying expanding Medicaid to restricting birth control, Tillis has had a hand in it all. Of course the state is grossly gerrymandered and Tillis recently had North Carolina Democrats robbed of their funding but Hagan is already prepared to run a strong race despite North Carolina Democrats' financial woes. Also, Rev. William Barber will use his power from the Moral Mondays protests to help get African American voters to the polls this November. Hagan has been hitting Tillis on his connections to the Kochs and the General Assembly and she has Preston Elliott running her campaign. Elliot was Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D. NV) campaign manager in 2010 and Senator Jon Tester's (D. MT) campaign manager in 2012 so he knows how to win tough races. Plus the Libertarian candidate is taking away a good chunk of Tillis' supporters and his pivot to the extreme right in the primary didn't help him. Of course this is a race to watch but things are looking good for Hagan.
August Rating: Toss Up/Leans Democrat
5. Colorado: Mark Udall (D) vs. Cory Gardner (R)
Republicans lucked out and recruited a competitive candidate in Gardner who as we've seen in the recent polls is giving Udall a run for his money. The Kochs have been pouring in money running attack ads against Udall for his support for the Affordable Care Act. But Karl Rove's group, American Crossroads, recently went too far with their attacks and the latest ad has proven to be a complete crock of shit. You can read more about it here:
http://www.msnbc.com/...
Of course Gardner wants to make this race about fracking and Udall's opposition to the Keystone XL Pipeline but Gardner has been stuck in a tough position regarding his past support for the Personhood Amendment. Gardner has flip flopped on the issue which hasn't made religious conservatives happy but he won't remove his name from Personhood bills he co-sponsored in Congress. Also, the Personhood Amendment is back on the ballot in Colorado and this is surely going to make women voters come out in large numbers. Personhood amendments are very unpopular in Colorado and Udall knows this. He's been constantly hitting Gardner on his support for Personhood Amendments and it's going to bite Gardner on the ass. Not to mention immigration reform is another issue that could hurt Gardner. Gardner has been part of the GOP obstruction on killing immigration reform and Udall is a big supporter of immigration reform. Colorado has a big Latino population and they have been hounding Gardner on his votes. Supporters of legalized marijuana should also be coming out to defeat Gardner. He voted against stopping the DEA from raiding dispensaries where marijuana is legal and Udall recently wrote to the President to leave Colorado alone. Udall has a tough race but DSCC Chairman Michael Bennet (D. CO), who also won a very tight race in 2010, will certainly be helping Udall. Udall has also been the biggest critic of President Obama when it comes to the NSA and CIA director John Brennan and has been pushing for greater surveillance reforms and for Brennan's resignation. Udall's also a great fundraiser and a great campaigner so no one should count him out.
August Rating: Toss Up/Leans Democrat
6. Iowa: Bruce Braley (D) vs. Joni Ernst (R)
Braley's had his share of gaffes and bumps from the "farmer's remark" to the current chicken neighbor story people are trying to hype up. He's also been falsely attacked for skipping VA hearings for fundraisers so guys like the Koch Brothers see him as an easy target. The GOP wants to paint him as an elitist, out-of touch trial lawyer even though he's a born and raised Iowan. But Braley's already had a head start in terms of campaigning and fundraising since he was unopposed. Ernst had to win her crowded primary first. She won over GOP voters with ads referring to hog castration and shooting ranges but she's also made some pretty extreme remarks. She supports privatizing Social Security, she's militantly pro-life, anti-environment and has been under scrutiny for wanting end tax credit for ethanol. She also claims that there were WMDs, trying to justify invading Iraq and making claims that states can nullify laws that Congress has passed (which they can't). She also opposes raising the minimum wage which Iowa voters overwhelming support so this could work in Braley's favor. He's been making the minimum wage and Social Security key issues. Braley also deserves our support because he opposes laws like SOPA and CISPA and we could use more Democrats like Braley in the Senate. Plus Iowa likes to have Senators from each party representing them and with Senator Chuck Grassley (R. IA) eyeing to run again in 2016, history could be on Braley's side. Still, he will need our support and he's not going down without a fight.
August Rating: Toss Up/Leans Democrat
7. Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
There's a long list of reasons why this race is super competitive. McConnell has overstayed his welcome and despite easily winning his primary and having the backing of Senator Rand Paul (R. KY), the Tea Party still hates him. Sure, a bunch of Tea Party voters will hold their noses for him but a good chunk will still voter Libertarian out of protest. McConnell has tried to tie Grimes to Obama in claiming she's a supporter of the "War On Coal" but with the latest news showing McConnell's wife, Elaine Chao, on the board of Bloomberg Philanthropies, which has plunged $50 million into the Sierra Club’s “Beyond Coal” initiative, it looks like McConnell may have lost another key talking point. Plus he can't run against the ACA anymore because it's helped greatly reduce the uninsured rate in Kentucky. McConnell's had his share of stumbles and dig name Democrats like Senator Elizabeth Warren (D. MA) and Bill Clinton have been riling up the based for Grimes. Grimes has also been running an aggressive campaign and she is determined to win. We're not out of the forrest yet folks and anything could happen. But with the latest news on McConnell's wife, it's hard for me to even consider this race to be "Leans Republican", even if I feel I should be a little generous to McConnell's chances. So here's my rating:
August Rating: Toss Up
8. Georgia: Michelle Nunn (D) vs. David Perdue (R)
This race I am extremely excited about and I have several reasons why. The GOP runoff bought Nunn time to get her grassroots campaign organized and she's a terrific fundraiser. The NRSC is already planning on spending over two million dollars to help Perdue win which is a clear sign this race is not going to be easy for the GOP. Nunn will also have her father, former Senator Sam Nunn (D. GA) on the campaign trail and the senior Nunn is still popular. Democrats are also well aware of the changing demographics in Georgia and are working on registering voters and getting African Americans and Latinos out to the polls. Nunn supports immigration reform and Spanish language ads in Atlanta are hitting Perdue for opposing immigration reform. Perdue's only advantage is he's Republican running in still a red state but we're starting to see the Peach State move into purple territory. Of course the GOP keeps trying to make a big deal over the old leaked Nunn campaign memo that has prepared her for the oncoming attacks but they seem to be trying to make something out of nothing. Nunn has a great background as the CEO of the major charity organization, Points of Light, and she has the backing of her father's old colleagues, former Senators John Warner (R. VA) and Dick Lugar (R. IN). Plus big Romney and GOP donors are sickened by the GOP candidates and have backed Nunn early on. Perdue has a history of outsourcing jobs and denying women equal pay and Nunn has been hitting him on these issues. Perdue is also big supporter of Wall Street bailouts which could come back and haunt him. Plus Democrats like myself are hungry for revenge after what the GOP did to Max Cleland (D. GA) in 2002. I'll be generous here and give this race a little favorable rating for Perdue but this race is far from over. Nunn just has to avoid going into a runoff and I have faith in her grassroots army.
August Rating: Toss Up/Leans Republican
Races that look safe for Democrats but could change:
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D) vs. Scott Brown (R)
Michigan: Gary Peters (D) vs. Terri Lynn Land (R)
Minnesota: Al Franken (D) vs. Mike McFadden (R)
Oregon: Jeff Merkley (D) vs. Monica Wehby (R)
Virginia: Mark Warner (D) vs. Ed Gillespie (R)
Scott Brown's (R. NH) comeback looks like a bust and GOP voters aren't confident in Terri Lynn Land (R. MI). Monica Wehby (R. OR) is a fringe candidate but has the Koch Brothers backing. Mike McFadden (R. MN) and Ed Gillespie (R. VA) are both bust candidates.
Races that look safe for Republicans but could change:
Maine: Susan Collins (R) vs. Shenna Bellows (D. ME)
Montana: Steve Daines (R) vs. ?
West Virginia: Shelley Moore Capito (R) vs. Natalie Tennant (D)
South Dakota: Mike Rounds (R) vs. Rick Weiland (D) vs. Larry Pressler (I)
Nebraska: Ben Sasse (R) vs. Dave Domina (D)
As much as I would love to see Shenna Bellows (D. ME) pull a surprise victory against Senator Susan Collins (R. ME), it's highly unlikely at this point. However, Bellows has been campaigning hard and I'd like to see some recent polling from a credible pollster like PPP. Rick Weiland (D. SD) is another candidate I love and was hoping for a surprise victory but I hate to admit it, we might've had a better shot against former Governor Mike Rounds (R. SD) has former Blue Dog Whip, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D. SD), chosen to run. Plus former Republican-turned-Independent Senator Larry Pressler (I. SD) seems to be taking more votes from Weiland than Rounds. Nebraska is on this list because Ben Sasse (R. NE) is an extremist but Nebraska is pretty red. I love Dave Domina's (D. NE) work to prevent the Keystone XL Pipeline from being approved but until I see some polling from someone like PPP showing this race competitive, Sasse looks like the sure winner. In West Virginia, Shelley Moore Capito (R. WV) looks like the sure winner but PPP has showed that voters in the Mountain State tend to change their minds a lot. Plus the DSCC and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D. MA) haven't given up on Natalie Tennant (D. WV) but with the state being very anti-Obama, Capito looks like she has this one in the bag. Montana is the most heartbreaking race because I was heavily rooting for Senator John Walsh (D. MT) to still make a come back and beat Tea Party Rep. Steve Daines (R. MT). But of course the plagiarism scandal has caused him to drop out of the race, which I respect him for doing. Montana Democrats are working on finding a replacement so we'll have to see who they come up with. But even if former Governor Brian Schweitzer (D. MT) wanted to run for this seat (he has recently said he wouldn't), he'd still have an uphill battle.
So there you have it. Expect a diary about my ratings for the Governors races to be out very soon. In the mean time, please do consider donating and getting involved with these Democrats' campaigns:
http://pryorforsenate.com/
http://www.brucebraley.com/
http://alisonforkentucky.com/
http://www.kayhagan.com/...
http://www.markbegich.com/
http://www.michellenunn.com/
http://www.marylandrieu.com/
http://markudall.com/