Emphasis mine.PPP's newest Kentucky poll finds Mitch McConnell taking a small lead, with 44% to 40% for Alison Lundergan Grimes, and 7% for Libertarian David Patterson. Patterson's supporters say if they had to choose between the major party candidates they would pick McConnell by a 44/34 spread, and when you reallocate those voters to their second choice it leaves McConnell with a 47/42 advantage.
In early April we found Grimes leading McConnell 45/44. The main thing that's changed since then is McConnell seeing some consolidation in his base. At that point, in the middle of his primary fight with Matt Bevin, he had only a 49 point advantage with Republican voters at 69/20. Now in the two way contest he is up 67 points with GOP voters at 78/11, and when you include the Libertarian his advantage is 63 points at 72/9. That unification of Republicans accounts for most of the change we've seen over the last four months.
This is the first time PPP has looked at approval and favorability ratings for McConnell and Grimes since December, and although he remains unpopular McConnell's seen improvement on that front as well. Then he had a 31/61 approval spread, but now it's improved to 37/54. That shift is also largely a function of movement among Republican voters- he's gone from having just a 47/41 approval rating with them up to 58/30 now. Grimes has seen her name recognition increase from 68% to 86% over that period of time but there's been little shift in her net favorability- she's gone from -6 at 31/37 to -4 at 41/45.
Barack Obama's unpopularity in Kentucky continues to make the landscape difficult for Democrats- only 32% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 63% who disapprove. 38% of the voters who disapprove of McConnell also disapprove of Obama, and among that group McConnell is receiving 20% of the vote, which is how you get to 44% of the vote with only a 37% approval rating.
All said the race remains close and McConnell remains unpopular- and among the undecided voters McConnell has just a 10% approval rating to 66% of voters who disapprove of him. So Grimes should at least have a chance with those folks. - PPP, 8/12/14
So all Grimes has to do is win over that chunk of undecided voters so she has plenty of room to win. Moving on to next year's Governor's race, Republicans want failed Tea Party candidate Matt Bevin (R. KY) to be their nominee due to his name recognition. 25% say Matt Bevin to 20% for James Comer, 18% for Hal Heiner, and 11% for Cathy Bailey. But it's looking like Democrats are bound to hold onto this seat:
Also the ACA's number are 34/51 but Kynect gets 34/27. Not too shabby. We can win this race, we just have to help Grimes win over the undecideds who hate McConnell. So click here to donate and get involved with Grimes' campaign:Jack Conway leads all of the Republicans in potential general election match ups, but several of them are quite close and there are many undecideds. Conway is up 3 points on Comer and Bevin at 38/35 and 39/36 respectively, 7 points on Heiner at 39/32, and 12 points on Bailey at 42/30. Conway has a 35/28 favorability rating, making him a good deal better known than the Republicans, so at least part of his early advantage is probably attributable to name recognition. - PPP, 8/12/14
And while you're at it, how about getting involved and donating to Conway's campaign: