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Leading Off:

IA-Sen: It's well past time that Democrats stop playing around and start tearing Joni Ernst apart for all the truly crazy shit she's been spewing, like the recently revealed fact that she's been running with the black helicopter crowd:

"The United Nations has imposed this upon us, and as a U.S. senator, I would say, 'No more. No more Agenda 21.' Community planning—to the effect that it is implementing eminent domain and taking away property rights away from individuals—I don't agree with that. And especially in a place such as Iowa, where we rely heavily upon our agricultural community, our rural communities. We don't want to see things like eminent domain come into play," Ernst said in response to a question about Agenda 21 at the forum.

"We don't want to see a further push with Agenda 21, where the Agenda 21 and the government telling us that these are the urban centers that you will live in; these are the ways that you will travel to other urban centers," Ernst continued. "Agenda 21 encompasses so many different aspects of our lives that it's taking away our individual liberties, our freedoms as United States citizens. So I would adamantly oppose Agenda 21. I don't believe it is responsible, not for United States citizens."

Agenda 21, if you've never heard of it, is an innocuous U.N. document that has, over the years, become a lodestone of the wingnut fever swamps. This is Michele Bachman-esque, out-of-your-freaking-gourd territory. And no, this wasn't some one-off dalliance with the kind of conspiracy-mongering that you'd find in the barracks of a backwoods militia organization. Ernst actually believes in this absurd nonsense:
"What I've seen, the implications we could have here, is moving people off of their agricultural land and consolidating them into city centers, and then telling them that you don't have property rights anymore," she told a crowd in rural Ida Grove in November 2013, in response to a general foreign policy question and in remarks first reported by the Associated Press in June.
Head below the fold to read more about Ernst's psycho crazytalk.

This is the kind of thing that people who think "The Report from Iron Mountain" is an actual government report would say. Ernst probably believes the NAFTA Superhighway is real, too. And that communists are fluoridating the water supply to sap her of her precious bodily essences.

So you can understand why Ernst, when called out on this batshittery by Yahoo News' Meredith Shiner, decided to pretend that it's all been some kind of misunderstanding:

"I don't think that the U.N. Agenda 21 is a threat to Iowa farmers," Ernst said in an interview in her Urbandale campaign office.
Shah, right. As Shiner put it, "the breadth and length of her response on the topic of Agenda 21 seems to belie a deep knowledge of the conspiracy theory." She's a true believer who's only pretending to be sane. After all, she also wants to impeach the president and thinks that Iowa can go about nullifying federal laws.

So when is Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley going to take the gloves off and expose her for who she is? It seems like so often, Democratic candidates are reluctant to "go there" when confronting unhinged Republican opponents, sort of like how then-Rep. Ron Klein tried to stop Allen West in 2010 by constantly bringing up his freakin' tax liens instead of his, you know, lunacy.

But two years later, Patrick Murphy showed no such fear and went after West's record hard, pulling out a stunning upset. Harry Reid understood the same thing, too, and survived an impossibly bad 2010 by relentlessly hammering Sharron Angle at every opportunity.

Ernst has given Braley a ton of fodder, but Braley's attack ads so far have been about wasteful spending (seriously?) and the minimum wage (okay, that's a little better, at least). If he can't shred an outright nutter like Ernst over stuff like this, then what exactly is he planning to do?

Senate:

HI-Sen: A state court judge has rejected Democratic Rep. Colleen Hanabusa's request that Friday's special election in two precincts that were shuttered due to Tropical Storm Iselle be delayed. Hanabusa had argued that the region was still recovering from the storm and therefore residents should have more time before a new round of voting was held, but the court did not agree. Hanabusa says she will not appeal.

As of right now, appointed Sen. Brian Schatz holds a 1,635 vote lead over Hanabusa. There are about 8,255 registered voters in both precincts, theoretically enough to swing the election to Hanabusa. However, Hanabusa will need to run up a massive margin in both precincts to have a chance, which is a lot to ask for. The polls in both precincts are set to close at 6 PM local time on Friday (12 AM ET), and we'll be liveblogging the results, as well as any other major developments over the weekend, at Daily Kos Elections.

KY-Sen: In a very early look at next cycle's Senate race in Kentucky, PPP finds GOP Sen. Rand Paul in solid shape against even the toughest candidate Democrats could offer, outgoing Gov. Steve Beshear. Paul leads Beshear 50-41, and it's extremely doubtful Beshear would be interested in running in the first place. However, it's possible Paul himself might not run for re-election either, if he pursues a bid for president. That changes things: In a hypothetical open-seat scenario against Rep. Thomas Massie, Beshear starts off ahead, 45-30. Also keep in mind that this poll is trying to bootstrap a 2016 race on to a 2014 sample; the electorate will look quite different two years from now.

TN-Sen: Rasmussen: Lamar! Alexander (R-inc): 47, Gordon Ball (D): 32.

Gubernatorial:

RI-Gov: Between July 1 and Aug. 11, state Treasurer Gina Raimondo led the Democratic field in both fundraising and spending, taking in $186,000 while shelling out $1.4 million ahead of the Sept. 9 primary. She also has the most cash-on-hand remaining, $1.7 million. Self-funder Clay Pell spent a similar amount, $1.2 million, and has $802,000 in the bank, though presumably he can keep writing himself checks (he's already dumped in over $3 million). Providence Mayor Angel Taveras raised $112,000 but only spent $588,000, leaving him with $851,000 in his war chest. Polling has been incredibly scarce, though, so it's hard to get a proper read on where things stand.

House:

FL-02: A new poll from Pathfinder Opinion Research, on behalf of a pro-Democratic super PAC called Ocean Champions, finds Democrat Gwen Graham leading GOP Rep. Steve Southerland 45-43 in Florida's hotly contested 2nd Congressional District. According to Pathfinder, previously unreleased trendlines had Southerland up by a fairly daunting 49-39 in April, so you can view the movement as positive for Graham.

However, these numbers seem to contradict a Graham internal from Anzalone conducted in March that had her behind just 42-40. So while it's easy to believe the race is close—the NRCC just started advertising here on Southerland's behalf—it's hard to say whether it's always been that way or whether there's been actual movement toward Graham.

Either way, though, Ocean Champions is hoping for more good things for Graham: They've just launched a new ad (backed by a small $35,000 buy) featuring a fisherman on the back of a boat castigating Southerland for wanting to let "Washington bureaucrats manage local fisheries."

IA-02: Physician Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who's unsuccessfully tried two previous times to unseat Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack, just released an internal from the Tarrance Group showing her behind by just a 45-42 margin. Sounds dicey, right? But Tarrance also polled right around the same time last cycle for Republican John Archer, finding him down just 48-43. Loebsack wound up winning 56-43. And in September of 2010, the last time Miller-Meeks challenged Loebsack, they had the incumbent ahead just 41-40. Loebsack hung on 51-46.

So judging by recent history, Republicans in Tarrance's mirror are actually further than they appear. This was also true with their late polling in 2012, when all their numbers were skewed toward GOP candidates—by double digits in two out of three cases. Loebsack certainly can't afford to take this race for granted: Iowa's 2nd District is only light blue, at 56-43 Obama. But he's got a 3-to-1 cash edge, and this isn't a poll to get freaked out over.

Crossroads: American Crossroads has reserved a total of $3.1 million for the fall, targeting five Democratic incumbents.

Rep. Ami Bera in California's 7th District will bear the biggest brunt, with $895,000 going toward his suburban Sacramento seat. Fellow California freshman Scott Peters doesn't have it much easier, with Crossroads committing $705,000 to his San Diego-based 52nd District. Brad Schneider in Illinois' 10th District will be hit with $640,000, and Bill Enyart in Illinois' 12th District has $565,000 going up against him. Nick Rahall in West Virginia's 3rd District brings up the rear, with Crossroads reserving $335,000 in a race that has already attracted its share of outside spending. None of these targets are really a surprise: Daily Kos Elections rates IL-12 and CA-07 as Lean Democratic, with the rest as tossups. (Jeff Singer)

Grab Bag:

Demographics: The New York Times' Upshot has a series of fascinating interactive graphs about where the people living in each state were born; even if it were for 2010 only, it would still be interesting, but they track the composition of every state at one-decade intervals since 1900! While it's usually pretty consistent from decade to decade, in some states, it changes dramatically, and where it does, it says a lot about how that state's culture has changed.

The states with the highest percentage of people born in the same state tend to be some of the least dynamic states: either in the Deep South, or else Rust Belt states with aging populations. Louisiana is at 79 percent, followed by Michigan at 77, Ohio at 75, Pennsylvania at 74, and Mississippi at 72. On the other hand, the ones with the lowest percentage are ones that are rapidly diversifying (and, except for Wyoming, turning blue): Nevada at 25, Florida at 36, the District of Columbia at 37, Arizona at 38, and Wyoming at 40.

It might seem a little surprising that California isn't among the lowest (it's at 55), but that's consistent with the sense that California's once-rapid growth has leveled out lately; where California leads the way is percentage of people born outside the USA, at 28. It's followed by New York at 24, New Jersey at 23, and Florida and Nevada at 21. (That's only at 17 in Texas and 15 in Arizona, which may explain why they're aren't turning as blue as rapidly as people would like them to.)

There's one other interesting category I noted: the states that have the largest percentages of people from one other particular state. Leading far and away is New Hampshire, where 25 percent of the population was born in Massachusetts (which certainly explains New Hampshire's political shift leftward in recent decades). That's followed by Nevada, where 19 percent of the population was born in California. The third place state will probably surprise you: 14 percent of the people in Oregon were born in California (though, having grown up in Oregon myself -- where resentment of Californians is nearly as legendary as New Hampshire's resentment of "Massholes" -- it certainly didn't surprise me).

The NYT's Nate Cohn seizes on this data to look at the political implications. In particular, he looks at how the rest of the South isn't diversifying as rapidly as Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina, which explains why the other states (including Texas, as I mentioned above, and Georgia) aren't as likely to follow that trio (which are the only three southern states where there's more in-migration from the northeast and west than there is from other southern states) into swing-state status soon. (David Jarman)

Site News: Some incredibly exciting news here at Daily Kos Elections: We've just hired Jeff Singer (whom you used to know as Darth Jeff) to join us on a full-time basis as a Senior Elections Writer! Jeff has been involved with the site since last year, and his participation as a community member dates back much further. Among many other things, he's run election-night liveblogs, written content for the Digest, and crunched countless data for our project to calculate presidential results by legislative district for every state in the nation. Jeff will help take our already awesome elections coverage to the next level, so please join me in welcoming him aboard!

Ads & Independent Expenditures (Jeff Singer):

AR-Sen: Senate Majority PAC spends another $238,000 against Republican Rep. Tom Cotton, possibly as part of their "Children's Hospital" spot. The DSCC also puts down another $214,000 against Cotton.

CO-Sen: A woman praises Democratic Sen. Mark Udall for helping her community rebuild after it was devastated by flooding last year.

GA-Sen: The NRSC spends $864,000 against Democrat Michelle Nunn, likely in support of this spot, which began airing this week.

MI-Sen: Ending Spending continues to fail to live up to their name, spending $666,000 against Democratic Rep. Gary Peters.

NC-Sen: American Crossroads spends $122,000 for Republican Thom Tillis.

NH-Sen: Mayday PAC, a group run by law professor Larry Lessig with the intent of fighting big money in politics with more money, had previously announced it would support former state Sen. Jim Rubens in the Sept. 9 Republican primary. The group has put down $143,000, which is unlikely to go very far on its own. With former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown looking like a lock for the GOP nomination, very few other groups have taken Rubens or his fellow primary contender, former Sen. Bob Smith, very seriously.

OR-Sen: Republican Monica Wehby decries the national debt, declaring "Career politicians are only worried about the next election, I'm worried about the next generation." Wehby doesn't mention her opponent Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley or offer many solutions beyond calling for Congress to watch its budget like regular families do. The Koch-backed Freedom Partners attacks Merkley for Obamacare and portrays him as ineffective in Congress. For some reason, the Freedom Partners ad has a lot of blurry transitions between photos, almost like a high-end PowerPoint presentation.

WV-Sen: Republican Rep. Shelley Moore Capito ties Democratic foe Natalie Tennant to national Democrats (this copy of the ad was recorded off the TV, so it's a bit hard to hear). Capito not only links Tennant to Obama, she throws in Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren and their coal policies. It's a bit odd that Capito added Reid and Warren, when Obama is a much better known and more reviled target in the state.

HI-Gov: Republican Duke Aiona emphasizes the tough decisions he made as a judge.

MA-Gov: Commonwealth Future, a PAC almost entirely funded by the RGA, airs their second spot in support of Republican Charlie Baker. This one praises Baker for turning around Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, rescuing it from near-bankruptcy.

FL-18: The Aug. 26 primary is fast approaching, with six unimpressive Republicans facing off to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy in this light red seat, and two of them are out with spots.

Alan Schlesinger (also known as Alan Gold), who was the 2006 Republican Senate nominee in Connecticut, has a very cheap looking ad where he depicts himself as the true conservative in the race and links former state Rep. and primary frontrunner Carl Domino to Obama and Democrat Charlie Crist. Shockingly, the narrator does not mention Schlesinger's record as mayor of Derby in the Nutmeg state. Domino ignores his primary contenders and goes straight after Murphy, while portraying himself as someone who can fix Congress.

NH-02: Former Republican state Sen. Gary Lambert puts $20,000 behind his first ad, tying primary rival state Rep. Marilinda Garcia to Obama on immigration. Most of this district is in the expensive Boston media market, so it's unlikely this spot will get seen by many people. The Club for Growth has been spending for Garcia ahead of the Sept. 9 primary, and no major groups have gotten involved for Lambert.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  After we're all forced to live in hellholes like (10+ / 0-)

    mid-town Manhattan and get jobs as IT specialists and commute by light rail, agriculture will be taken over by hordes of docile illegulls, and everyone will be forced to buy all their groceries at WHOLEFOODS.
    Then America will become just like France or the Soviet Union or North Korea.

  •  FL-18: Joe Lieberman owes his last re-election to (4+ / 0-)

    Schlesinger's 2006 surrender of most CT-Sen Republican voters to Joe.

    For anybody who cares, Joe's latest public comments (in Time Magazine), predictably sticks to a Likud-lite line on Israel-Gaza.

  •  Revealed: Koch Brothers agenda is eminent domain (18+ / 0-)

    seizure of your property rights so they can make more money.

    The real conspiracy that turned ranchers against Keystone XL was the conspiracy of the oilmen and the politicians to run roughshod over the property rights of Nebraska ranchers.

    One of the biggest jokes told on the news is that the Koch Brothers are libertarians. Libertarians who believe that the government can compel taking of your land & carve up your property so the Koch Bros can transport dangerous materials across your property.

    And then there's fracking and the rape of private property rights...

    There are real conspiracies to take your property rights involving the Republican party. Chasing imaginary black helicopters is a diversion.

    “Industry does everything they can and gets away with it almost all the time, whether it’s the coal industry, not the subject of this hearing, or water or whatever. They will cut corners, and they will get away with it. " Sen. Jay Rockefeller, D, WVa

    by FishOutofWater on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 06:12:11 AM PDT

    •  The other obvious one is TPP (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Puddytat

      along with TAFTA & TISA.

      Why doesn't Joni go all fever-pitch on those??  Oh, right, the Oligarchs.

      Is the real threat of the three T's (environmental, wage/worker rights, expression/information/privacy/internet rights) too abstract, too nebulous (compared to the dirt under your feet) for our fellow country(wo)men to glom onto?  Or do we speak of the dangers in a language, a style and a frame, that does not connect sufficiently enough to our sisters & brothers?

      The only reason the 1% are rich is because the 99% agree they are.

      by GreatLakeSailor on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 08:40:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Double-Take Department (6+ / 0-)
    Physician Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who's unsuccessfully tried two previous times to unseat Democratic Rep. Dave Loebsack,
    At first glance I thought you were saying she was a puppet of the AMA, but then I realized she didn't have a first name in that interpretation.

    It's not the side effects of the cocaine/I'm thinking that it must be love

    by Rich in PA on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 06:12:40 AM PDT

  •  Ernst isn't talking crazy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PrahaPartizan, Odysseus
    What I've seen, the implications we could have here, is moving people off of their agricultural land and consolidating them into city centers, and then telling them that you don't have property rights anymore
    They're worried about it because this isn't a new concept.  It's exactly what was done to Native Americans a couple centuries ago.  Moving them off their land, consolidating them in reservations, then telling them they have no rights.

    If it can be done to one group, it can be done to any group.

  •  Unless Rand Paul is moving into the Whitehouse (8+ / 0-)

    (and my vision just went blurry for a few seconds after typing that and now my ears are ringing)

    He is untouchable in 2016.   We have ONE SHOT at a Senate seat from the Bluegrass State and it happens 80 days and 22 hours from right now.

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 06:26:09 AM PDT

    •  As it stands now (0+ / 0-)

      Kentucky law does not allow a politician to run for two National offices on its ballot.  Meaning he can not run for the Senate in Kentucky and President at the same time.  They don't have what has become known as the LBJ clause.  The Democratic Assembly in its last session wasn't looking to take up the Republican Kentucky Senate's bill to change the law.

      Paul has threatened a lawsuit because he claims its unfair that some states do have the LBJ clause and Kentucky does not (Kentucky is not alone in this either).

      Charlie Crist for Florida Primary date: August 26, 2014, Election Date: November 4, 2014

      by aimeehs on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 08:55:29 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The guy running against Ernst (5+ / 0-)

    can be supported right here  https://secure.actblue.com/...

    When truth is only a matter of opinion, advantage goes to the liars.

    by Sun dog on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 06:29:24 AM PDT

  •  As far as I can tell (5+ / 0-)
    If he can't shred an outright nutter like Ernst over stuff like this, then what exactly is he planning to do?
    Not a damn thing.  He was supposed to be such a strong candidate.  He's been remarkably ineffective.

    A drowning man can not learn to swim. -- Chris Lonsdale

    by Rikon Snow on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 06:39:51 AM PDT

    •  Looks like Braley is too timid to win (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      GreatLakeSailor, stevenaxelrod

      Take a page from the Allison Grimes playbook. If Braley is too timid to take advantage of the situation and beat his opponent down he is too timid to win. Any Democrat running for office who is afraid to throw punches when they are obviously called for needs to rethink their candidacy. It is a fatal flaw of too many Democratic campaigns. Nothing discourages Democratic turn out more than a candidate who refuses to fight for themselves as they are often seen as unwilling to fight for their constituents as well. You don't have to go Republican crazy, you simply use the power of factual ridicule. Staying above the fray only works when you are running from a position of overwhelming strength. If Braley further hesitates, 3rd party messaging may be necessary to drag him across the finish line.

      Patriotism is the last refuge to which a scoundrel clings. Steal a little and they throw you in jail. Steal a lot and they make you king.... Dylan

      by bywaterbob on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 08:43:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  and frankly as awful as Ernst is, (0+ / 0-)

      so far I am resistant to contribute to Braley until I get a couple answers.   At the State Fair and in ads here and all over the social media, Braley supporters (yes, PACs as well) are posting the stupidist, most politically malpractice based ads I have ever seen..

      Most show an attractive photo of her, with huge letters JONI  and then tiny print..  and loads of tiny print that no one will read that question her about big oil connections, connections to the Kochs, etc.     SO, a supposed pro-Braley ad,  and loads of them, that promote the opponent.  

      I heard several in the crowd at the Fair talking about how many stickers they saw people wearing for Joni...    yet most were actually anti.     IT is obscenely stupid and I ask the Braley supporters to pull their heads out of their collective asses.   We cant afford a Senator Ernst from Iowa..      

  •  I feel compelled to confess (6+ / 0-)

    …that I LOVE it when the Republicans talk about Agenda 21.

    It means that the Universe is in perfect physical harmony and own my perceptions of their absolutely brain-damaged insanity is NOT an opinion.

    It is a fact.



    For an idea that does not at first seem insane, there is no hope.
    - Albert Einstein:  Leftist, socialist, emo-prog, cosmic visionary.

    by Pluto on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 06:40:19 AM PDT

  •  Rand Paul is trying to change Kentucky law. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MartyM, Odysseus, Ahianne

    Kentucky is one of the states that does not allow candidates to be on the ballot for two federal offices in the same year.  However, that law can be changed and a bill was introduced in this legislature to change it.  It was defeated in the democratic house. The Kentucky senate is controlled by Republicans.  If the house turns red this November, look for this law to pass at the next legislative session.

    "This isn't for the ones who would gladly swallow everything their leaders would have them know". Mary Chapin Carpenter

    by malenda on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 06:51:44 AM PDT

  •  I Agreed on the Iowa Braley point (4+ / 0-)

    There are many more videos out there of Ernst that I know the Braley campaign is aware of , in the GOP primary Ernst won , Iowa PBS had a debate with PBS News Hour's Judy Woodruff as commentator , Ernst completely exposed how bat crap Michelle Bachmann she is , Judy Woodruff got her to flat out admit she would completely repeal all of the ACA , even if there was no replacement , Judy Woodruff pointed out that many people would lose their HC , and Ernst just went on about how terrible the ACA is  , and how it is taking away our freedom blah blah

    These debates will help , unless Braley chokes like Al Gore Lieberman  2000

    Braley Accepts Invitations to Three Debates

    Braley for Iowa campaign manager Sarah Benzing released the following statement:

    “Iowans deserve an opportunity to see the clear differences between Bruce Braley and State Senator Joni Ernst on the issues that matter to them. That’s why we’ve accepted invitations to three televised debates that offer the greatest number of Iowans the best opportunity to see debates throughout the fall campaign. We are reaching out to Sen. Ernst’s campaign to determine the details, and we’re hopeful to have a final schedule of debates determined soon.”

    Braley has accepted the following three debate invitations:

        An invitation to participate in a televised debate hosted by KWWL-TV in late August or September in Waterloo and broadcast on KWWL, KTTC-TV in Mason City, and KTIV-TV in Sioux CIty.
        A televised debate hosted by KCAU-TV during the week of October 6th in Sioux City and broadcast on KCAU, WOI-TV in Des Moines, and WHBF-TV in Davenport.
        A televised debate hosted by Iowa Public Television on October 23, 2014, in Perry, Iowa, and broadcast statewide on IPTV.

    Beer Drinkers & Hell Raisers

    by Patango on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 06:55:56 AM PDT

  •  Welcome Jeff Singer! (4+ / 0-)

    "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

    by MartyM on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 07:05:47 AM PDT

  •  But what about the FEMA camps? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Puddytat, Ahianne

    Now that Obama has all the teabaggers rounded up and captured in the FEMA camps, surely he won't let the UN move them to city centers.

    One can always tell when a Republican is taking Viagra because he gets taller.

    by shoeless on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 08:06:36 AM PDT

    •  That's where the Ebola comes in..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Puddytat

      imported from Africa directly to the CDC.  The EPA will mandate a new "additive" to jet fuel (Jet-E) and spread con-trails of it over certain areas as directed by the BLM.

      /s

      The only reason the 1% are rich is because the 99% agree they are.

      by GreatLakeSailor on Fri Aug 15, 2014 at 09:12:54 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  RI-Gov is getting polled every day (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ahianne

    I get phone calls at least twice a week polling me on it.

    What I suspect is that these are push-polls done by one or another of the campaigns, and that they are not releasing the results because they don't like them, or because they don't want to have to disclose the questions.

    I don't know if these qualify as official push-polls, but they tend to load up the middle of the survey with things like "Which of the following would be a good reason NOT to vote for Raimondo?" and then at the end they ask you again if the election were held today, who would you vote for.

    I haven't kept track so can't tell which campaign is most likely doing these. All I know is that I cringe when the phone rings because I'm tired of listening to all the negatives.

    Last night I got a break: The poll phone call was a set of well-designed questions about HealthsourceRI, the ACA exchange, and I could tell them yes, I did have periods in the past 18 months when I did not have insurance; how pleased I was with my new coverage; how competent the staff is; and yes, I'd recommend it to others; and no, I don't think government-subsidized health care is evil or unAmerican and if only we went back to the free market everything would be hunky-dory.  (That's my phrasing, not theirs.)

  •  I have to ask (0+ / 0-)

    Why is there an exclamation mark after "Lamar"?

  •  If I had money to bet (0+ / 0-)

    I'd place it all on Ernst.

    Her craziness doesn't hurt her.  Braley is an utter zero as a candidate, and Tom Harkin's seat will be held by this fucking Palinite whack-job.

    Nice going, Bruce.

  •  Braley is keeping his powder dry for a reason. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    catilinus

    terjeanderson, who generally sounds quite smart, explains on Political Wire http://politicalwire.com/... (I'm going to quote verbatim to make it easier ;)):

    “Because Ernst spent most of the last month deployed in the National Guard, Braley's campaign (rightly) decided that they would not launch negative ads against her. As a result, she has benefitted from her post-primary bounce, and her efforts to run a content-free campaign focusing on her "nice" personality and Braley's dislike of chickens in his yard.

    But now that Ernst's deployment is over and the fall campaign is about to be engaged, expect to see aggressive framing of her extreme statements and views - from the Braley campaign, from the DSCC, and from interest groups.

    They've got a huge collection of video and audio of insane things she has said -- conspiracy theories about the UN taking over local zoning to put American farmers out of business, calling for impeachment, state nullification of federal laws (which side was Iowa on in the Civil War?), opposing any minimum wage, "personhood" amendments.

    All those things play well with the RWNJ base that dominates the Iowa Republican Party, but they are the kind of things that can be lethal in a general election.

    The election will be close (Iowa is a purple state), but in the end I fully expect Braley to win this thing by several points.”

    •  Thanks for your first comment Lukas. (0+ / 0-)
      All those things play well with the RWNJ base that dominates the Iowa Republican Party, but they are the kind of things that can be lethal in a general election.
      That's the general pattern.
      Welcome to Daily Kos. If you have any questions about how to participate here, you can learn more at the Community Guidelines, the Knowledge Base, and the Site Resource Diaries. Diaries labeled "Open Thread" are also great places to ask. We look forward to your contributions.
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      It will never happen for the first time until it does.

      by catilinus on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 06:55:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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