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Chart of Florida immigration patterns over the last century.
Florida immigration patterns over the last century (click for larger)
The New York Times' Upshot has released a series of fascinating interactive graphs about where the people living in each state were born; even if it were for 2010 only, it would still be interesting, but they track the composition of every state at one-decade intervals since 1900! While it's usually pretty consistent from decade to decade, in some states, it changes dramatically, and where it does, it says a lot about how that state's culture and politics have changed.

The states with the highest percentage of people born in the same state tend to be some of the least dynamic states, either in the Deep South or Rust Belt states with aging populations. Louisiana is currently at 79 percent, followed by Michigan at 77, Ohio at 75, Pennsylvania at 74, and Mississippi at 72. On the other hand, the ones with the lowest percentage of people born in that state are ones that are rapidly diversifying (and, except for Wyoming, turning blue): Nevada at 25, Florida at 36, the District of Columbia at 37, Arizona at 38, and Wyoming at 40.

It might seem a little surprising that California isn't among the lowest (it's at 55), but that's consistent with the sense that California's once-rapid growth has leveled out lately; where California leads the way is percentage of people born outside the USA, at 28. It's followed by New York at 24, New Jersey at 23, and Florida and Nevada at 21. The percentage of foreign-born is only at 17 in Texas and 15 in Arizona, which may partially explain why they're aren't turning as blue as rapidly as people would like them to.

There's one other interesting category I noted: the states that have the largest percentages of people from one other particular state. Leading far and away is New Hampshire, where 25 percent of the population was born in Massachusetts (which explains some of New Hampshire's political shift leftward in recent decades). That's followed by Nevada, where 19 percent of the population was born in California. The third place state will probably surprise you, though: you might think it was Floridians born in New York, but no, 14 percent of the people in Oregon were born in California. (Having grown up in Oregon myself—where resentment of Californians is nearly as legendary as New Hampshire's resentment of "Massholes"—it certainly didn't surprise me).

The New York Times' Nate Cohn seizes on this data to look at the political implications. In particular, he looks at how the rest of the South isn't diversifying as rapidly as Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina—those three states are the only southern states where there's more in-migration from the Northeast and West than from other southern states. That, plus lower migration from outside the United States, partly explains why the other southern states (including Texas, as mentioned above, and Georgia) aren't as likely to follow that trio into swing-state status any time soon.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 04:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos Elections.

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Comment Preferences

  •  seems like CA is the major exporter to Montana, (9+ / 0-)

    Idaho, Colorado, Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Oregon, and Hawaii. Maybe I'm missing some.

    “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

    by ban nock on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 04:20:00 PM PDT

    •  California (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      commonmass, hbk

      We have had a large influx from the red states.
      You can tell by the lack of sensible driving skills.

      I would tell you the only word in the English language that has all the vowels in order but, that would be facetious.

      by roninkai on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 04:55:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  your biggest influx in the US is from NY, but I'd (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        commonmass, hbk

        agree, no signals, tailgating, you have to cut them some slack, they're more into subways and taxis.

        Huge number of immigrants, fourteen times as many as NYers.

        “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

        by ban nock on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:22:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Which state has the highest native rate? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    slowbutsure, commonmass

    Which, the lowest?

  •  you can tell right away that most of Florida's (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ban nock, koosah, commonmass

    population isn't from the South----virtually nobody here has a southern accent (except for the portion near the Georgia border).

    In the end, reality always wins.

    by Lenny Flank on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 04:38:15 PM PDT

  •  I had to smile when I read this line (7+ / 0-)
    That's followed by Nevada, where 19 percent of the population was born in California. The third place state will probably surprise you, though: you might think it was Floridians born in New York, but no, 14 percent of the people in Oregon were born in California. (Having grown up in Oregon myself—where resentment of Californians is nearly as legendary as New Hampshire's resentment of "Massholes"—it certainly didn't surprise me).

    [emphasis added]

    Because, having grown up in Washington (and lived there my entire life to date) resentment of Oregonians fleeing the Hordes of Californians ruining THEIR communities is just as legendary here.

    :-)

    "I like paying taxes...with them, I buy Civilization"

    by Angie in WA State on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 04:38:41 PM PDT

    •  first time I saw this (3+ / 0-)

      I noticed that Washington and Oregon has less than 50% native populations.  Unlike other border states, such as Florida, they have relatively low foreign influx of peoples.  It is also interesting that states with such a high influx of people from other states, they still manage to maintain a extraordinarily high proportion of white non-hispanics, unlike Nevada and California.

      She was a fool, and so am I, and so is anyone who thinks he sees what God is doing. -Kurt Vonnegut Life is serious but we don't have to be - me

      by lowt on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:03:42 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Since the mid-to-late 1980s I've seen a big (4+ / 0-)

        influx of foreign-born nationals move here (the Northwest).

        From every section of the world.

        A lot of Russian emigres are sponsored here in WA State in particular by the Lutheran Church services.

        But we have a widely diverse population now, especially in comparison to when i was a child of the 60's, when my grade school had one black child and everyone else was white. Even in the 70s it was pretty much still white, white, white. My high school had I think 3 black kids and a few kids of Native American heritage. Out of about 1200 total in 10th, 11th and 12th grade.

        But today? Blacks, browns, whites of all shades and from all over the world. Russians. Latinos from all over Central America but a large contingent of Mexicans. Asians from Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, Korea and more. Europeans not so much, but I've met a few people from France, Germany and Poland in the past decade. The local black population is a lot larger than in decades past, but it's not as high as the foreign born population, at least so far as I can tell.

        I don't know why we seem to be a magnet for emigres from all over the place, except that it's a pretty great place to live and raise a family. And the environment here is still good, compared to most everywhere else.

        The worst that corporations have managed to do is cut down the old growth forests. We're lucky (and California is unlucky) that the biggies like Nestle and Coca-Cola and Pepsi were already bottling elsewhere when the rise of bottled water began. Otherwise I'm sure they'd be here draining our meltwater Reservoirs just like they're doing to California's fading natural water supplies right now.

        "I like paying taxes...with them, I buy Civilization"

        by Angie in WA State on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:28:03 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Something appear to be wrong with (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    commonmass

    the data for AZ in 1910 for birth in AR.  If you believe the graph the proportion of folks in AZ born in AR goes from 1%  in 1900 to 11% in 1910 back to 1% in 1920.  Because of rapid population growth in AZ, this would mean the population born in AR went from roughly 1200 +- 600, to roughly 22.5K +- 1000 and then back to ~3300 +/- 1600.  

    Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

    by benamery21 on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 04:43:03 PM PDT

  •  Californians moving to Oregon was a BIG thing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    koosah, ban nock, commonmass

    As a Californian I remember seeing bumper stickers in Oregon that said, "Welcome to Oregon - now go back to California."

    Ha! Couldn't blame them.

  •  LOL! (8+ / 0-)

    My husband's family calls me the "Californicator" sometimes. I've lived here in Oregon since 1965, for heaven's sake. I was FOUR when I moved here, but it still isn't enough time to erase the stain of California off of me. My maternal grandmother came to Oregon on a covered wagon, but, no.  I will forever be a despised Californian.  

    It wasn't my fault that my mother, a native Oregonian, was in California picking up sailors in bars. She moved us all back to Oregon as soon as she married one and he retired.  Heh!

    :^D

    "Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored." Aldous Huxley

    by koosah on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:00:39 PM PDT

    •  In Maine, you would always be "from away". (3+ / 0-)

      I'm only half from away because I was actually conceived here and my mother's family has a long history in Maine even though she her self was not born there. For other reasons, too, I get a break.

      However, I'll always be "from away" or "half from away". They say it takes at least three to four generations before a Mainer will accept your family as a real Mainers. Some of my friends up to the village, who are kids of my dad's friends there from when it was more of a summer house than a residence, can trace their families to that peninsula back to 1605.

      "To take another person's life from the bench is no better than to take another person's life from the street"

      by commonmass on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:48:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A popular bumpersticker in the 60's and 70's (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    koosah, ban nock, indres, commonmass

    in Montana was "Don't Californicate Montana".  But the graphs show that NoDaks and Minnatotens were the biggest contributors continuing the western migration.  

    But, within 'People are stupid' joke genre in those years, Polack jokes from NoDak became NoDak and (whatever the stereotype for Minnesotans, I think it was Bohunks) jokes.

    "Go well through life"-Me (As far as I know)
    This message will self-destruct upon arrival in the NSA archives in Utah.

    by MTmofo on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:09:40 PM PDT

  •  Do we at least get nicknames as cool as Massholes? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    indres, commonmass, TayTay

    ;-)  I'll be severely disappointed if not.

  •  As a Masshole (6+ / 0-)

    Screw New Hampshire. I say that in the nicest possible way.

    If you look at New Hampshire electoral patterns, it seems like many of the native rural Yankees, like some of their Vermont neighbors, are put off by today's GOP. A lot of the Mass. transplants actually are quite conservative and the GOP does well in the border towns.

    “Republicans...think American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people... And they admire of Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it.” Harry S. Truman

    by fenway49 on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:19:45 PM PDT

    •  perceptive comment (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      commonmass, fenway49

      “Conservation… is a positive exercise of skill and insight, not merely a negative exercise of abstinence and caution…” Aldo Leopold

      by ban nock on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:26:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Similarly (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      commonmass, fenway49, tofumagoo

      the 9% of Arizona residents born in California have not made AZ bluer.  Jan Brewer is one of them.  

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:39:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Several people (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      benamery21, commonmass, fenway49

      pointed that out to me when I originally wrote about this in the DKE digest, and, yes, it's possible that the influx of right-leaning refugees from Taxachusetts is actually keeping New Hampshire from getting even bluer. You can see that if you drill down into local election data: Rockingham County, where most of those border towns are, actually moved a click to the right, relatively speaking, in the last decade (from R+2 PVI in 2000 to R+4 in 2012). The Dem growth is more pronounced further away from Boston (like Merrimack Co., which went from D+0 to D+4 in that same period).

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:41:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  "Taxachusetts" is a totally incorrect appellation. (4+ / 0-)

        Property taxes are higher almost anywhere in New Hampshire than in Massachusetts. You have to make a boatload of money to even OWE state income taxes and if you're a renter--a middle class renter--you can write off part of your rent as you would your mortgage if you owned your home. I know, I'm from there and lived there for years.

        Yeah, there is something like a 6.4 percent sales tax. When I lived in Texas, it was 7 or 8 percent.

        It's expensive to live in Massachusetts, but it's not because of the taxes. It's because there is a chronic shortage of housing in the cities and other reasons.

        I remember when Prop. 2 1/2 passed in the early 80's--worst thing Massachusetts ever did. All it did was to force people to fund schools and other things through "fees" rather than "taxes".

        In some ways, even with our Teabagger governor here in Maine, taxes are higher here than in MA, our very generous social services have come under attack (including his refusal to expand Medicaid) and we're getting less bang for our buck.

        IF I could afford the rent, I'd move back to Boston. I'd be better off poor there, and were I rich, I'd be better off rich there, too.

        "Taxachusetts" is a meme from the Dukakis-Reagan campaign. Why use it?

        "To take another person's life from the bench is no better than to take another person's life from the street"

        by commonmass on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 06:05:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  "Taxachusetts" is a total misnomer (5+ / 0-)

        and a construct of the Reagan campaign. I really think we shouldn't be using it, as someone who is from Massachusetts, lived in Massachusetts within the last 10 years and has lived in states like Texas that rely on high property and sales taxes to make up for it.

        No Democrat should ever use something cooked up by by Reagan campaign no matter how viral it's gone and for how long.

        It's NOT true. By the way, Texas has a higher sales tax than Massachusetts and you have to be pretty well off to owe anything in Commonwealth income taxes as the write offs are generous.

        Did you know that renters in Massachusetts can even write off a portion of their rent as if it were a mortgage in Mass?

        "To take another person's life from the bench is no better than to take another person's life from the street"

        by commonmass on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 06:15:08 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Don't know the PVI (0+ / 0-)

        But Cheshire and Sullivan Counties, in SW NH, were far better for Dems  in recent years than most of Rockingham. And Grafton County, home to Dartmouth,  as well. Republicans clean up in the towns closer to Boston and, for some reason, the Rochester-Farmington area.

        “Republicans...think American standard of living is a fine thing--so long as it doesn't spread to all the people... And they admire of Government of the United States so much that they would like to buy it.” Harry S. Truman

        by fenway49 on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 08:46:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Two of my brothers live in NH, one GOP, one Dem (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      commonmass, fenway49

      The GOP one is Tea Party, the Dem is a Moderate. My brothers still in MA are 2 cons and one lib Dem. My bro in DC is now Tea Party. My sister believes in Art Bell stuff, not sure what that is.

      Alas, that means only 2 of us are now classic "Massholes" and proud of it.

      Born in MA with roots, like you, that go back to the 1620's.

    •  Sure does well up to the Newburyport area where (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TayTay

      my dad lives.

      Being a Massachusetts native myself, I used the term but nearly exclusively for drivers. We just raised the speed limit on the Maine Turnpike to 70 to accommodate how you guys drive in our State. LOL.

      "To take another person's life from the bench is no better than to take another person's life from the street"

      by commonmass on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:51:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Very interesting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TayTay, commonmass

    I geek out on stuff like this. 74% of Pennsylvanians born in PA -- wow!

    Having lived in CO for 9 years and NC for ten, this is true IME and the maps prove it. There are very few Southerners in CO and very few left coasters in NC. Explains some of the culture shock of the move.

    "Peculiar travel suggestions are dancing lessons from God." - Kurt Vonnegut

    by SteelerGrrl on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:28:08 PM PDT

  •  Well, for a long time, lots of New Engalnders (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TayTay

    retired to "Florider", as we tend to pronounce it ('cause you know we put r's where they don't belong and don't pronounce them where they do belong). My maternal grandmother did AFTER she retired to New Hampsha to avoid Massachusetts taxes*.

    Lots of people from NY (I see that on the graph) and NJ have done that for years, too.

    I hear the people who used to do that are now going to places like North Carolina instead.

    Here in Maine, we're the most elderly state in the union demographically--which means those who can't afford to retire South just plain stay. Frankly, I intend to.

    Interesting diary.

    *If you're a retired Masshole, it doesn't pay to relocate to New Hampsha. While it's true that there's no state income tax (if you are living off retirement benefits you aren't paying state income tax anywhere, mostly), no sales tax. But the property taxes? They'll kill you. I don't know why people do that, because property taxes are about the only way the state can afford to run. By way of honest disclosure, I was conceived in Maine, but was born in Massachusetts. ;)

    "To take another person's life from the bench is no better than to take another person's life from the street"

    by commonmass on Sat Aug 16, 2014 at 05:44:57 PM PDT

  •  Intriguing. (0+ / 0-)

    I was born in California.  My dad was born in Illinois; I didn't know Illinois was such a significant contributor to the Californian population.  My mom was born in Pennsylvania but came here by way of a military base in Japan in the late 60s (following a few years in Hawai'i and short stints in a handful of northeastern states).

    My wife was born in Washington state, as were her parents, and we're planning on moving back up there when we can.

  •  Personally I could care less where anybody is f... (0+ / 0-)

    Personally I could care less where anybody is from as long as they treat others decently. The old joke..you can use anywhere.. The reason all the trees in Ohio point south? Kentucky sucks.. Of course my friends from Kentucky say the same of Ohio, probably worse..

  •  Could you draw this graph another way? (0+ / 0-)

    Same general idea, but rank from top to bottom based on the absolute influence so one could see at a glance what is most influential (from a % population point of view).

  •  Texas and Arizona: The numbers are there (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    benamery21

    "The percentage of foreign-born is only at 17 in Texas and 15 in Arizona, which may partially explain why they're aren't turning as blue as rapidly as people would like them to."

    A significant number of native Texans and Arizonans are not white conservatives. The numbers to put both states in play are already there -- the problem is leadership, organization, and the inherent difficulty of coalition-building. Developing a statewide party in both states should be an absolute priority for the DNC -- once those two fall, it's game over, especially when you consider that Georgia and North Carolina are inexorably trending blue.

    "There is no room for injustice anywhere in the American mansion." Lyndon Johnson

    by pkgoode on Sun Aug 17, 2014 at 06:33:28 AM PDT

    •  Low turnout in D+16 AZ-07 (0+ / 0-)

      is a big part of that.  Jeff Flake lost AZ (on net) outside Maricopa county.  He won Maricopa county by about 70,000 votes.  Fewer than 138,000 people in AZ-07 voted in the Senate race, at a 72-23 clip for Carmona.  Organizing in AZ-07 is critical to swinging the state and the county.  Ruben Gallego is our best shot at doing that.

      Iron sharpens Iron. Normal is a dryer setting. STOP illegal immigration NOW! -- Make it LEGAL. If Corporations are People--Let's draft them.

      by benamery21 on Sun Aug 17, 2014 at 04:24:33 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  We've had a steady (0+ / 0-)

    Northern migration to Florida for a very long time, some of our Northerners have been here for so long now, they consider themselves natives.

    I have noticed an increase in people from Western states lately, mostly California.  Most of them have moved here because of work related transfers.

    I met one today.  He transferred for his job and is currently waiting for the process to be completed on his new home.  He sold his house in the Orange County, California area for about $950,000.  He told me things are a lot cheaper her in the Orlando area.  The heat and the humidity is killing him though.  He asked me hopefully if September would provide cooler weather.  I hated to disappoint him with the fact that it wouldn't cool down a whole lot until the end of October.  The poor guy didn't even have an AC in California as he said the temperature ran a nice 72 degrees.  

    Yes we have no state income tax (we rely on a 'tourist tax', so say thanks to the greater Orlando area, Florida), but you'll make up a good  expense  on your electric bill.

    Welcome to Florida, even in the suburban/urban areas you'll feel like you're in the Everglades and you still aren't guaranteed from a life fee of skeeters or alligators.  You'll also have to contend with black bears if you move suburban area of O-Town near the Wekiva Preserve.  

    Charlie Crist for Florida Primary date: August 26, 2014, Election Date: November 4, 2014

    by aimeehs on Sun Aug 17, 2014 at 07:24:29 PM PDT

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