Republican Gov. Susana Martinez has a big lead in a new poll, but there are some red flags.
Research & Polling, working on behalf of the
Albuquerque Journal, takes their first look at the general election in their home state of New Mexico. In the gubernatorial race, they give Republican Gov. Susana Martinez
a 50-41 lead over Democratic Attorney General Gary King, but there haven't been
many polls here, so it's hard to get a read on how accurate these numbers might be.
However, an early June King internal from Lake Research put him at a 45-39 deficit, so it's probably a safe assumption that he's trailing. Martinez and her allies have been spending heavily here to define King before he can afford to properly hit back, while Democratic groups haven't done much here yet.
R&P also took a look at the U.S. Senate race, but unsurprisingly, there isn't much to see here. Freshman Democratic Sen. Tom Udall leads former state GOP party chair Allen Weh (who lost to Martinez in the 2010 gubernatorial primary) by a 53-35 margin. Udall has run a few positive ads here but he has been almost universally viewed as safe, and these numbers only confirms that perception.
There are a few big caveats regarding this poll, however. The survey only samples voters who turned out in 2010 and said they would likely vote again, which reflects a worst-case scenario for Democrats. The poll also weighs by "known distribution of age, gender, and party affiliation, based on the 2010 election." This is problematic for the same reasons. While it's very likely 2014 turnout will look more like 2010 than 2012, it's still a lot to assume this year will be a repeat of the last midterm. Longtime observers also know that weighting by party is a risky proposition, since political affiliation is much more fluid than gender or age.
We also took a look at Research & Polling's track record over the last two cycles. Head below the fold for more.
The Journal has worked with Research & Polling for quite some time, so we have a number of older polls we can analyze. Here are their late numbers from 2010:
• NM-Gov: R&P: Martinez (R) 52-42; actual: Martinez (R) 53-47; error +4 R
• NM-01: R&P: Barela (R) 49-46; actual: Heinrich (D) 52-48; error +7 R
• NM-02: R&P: Pearce (R) 48-45; actual: Pearce (R); 55-45; error +7 D
And
2012:
• NM-Pres: R&P: Obama (D) 51-45; actual: Obama (D) 53-43; +4 R
• NM-Sen: R&P: Heinrich (D) 50-42; actual: Heinrich (D) 51-45; error +2 D
• NM-01: R&P: Grisham (D) 51-36; actual: Grisham (D) 59-41; error +3 R
• NM-02: R&P: Pearce (R) 56-38; actual: Pearce (R) 59-41; error: 0
• NM-03: R&P: Lujan (D) 53-35; actual Lujan (D) 63-37; error +8 R
Overall, this is a pretty decent track record. R&P had some larger misses of 7 and 8 points in a few of the House races, but they were generally fairly on-target in the statewide contests. However, the polling has been more prone to lean toward the GOP rather than the Democrats, and even in 2010, R&P found Martinez leading by more than her eventual margin of victory. So, particularly since R&P is still relying on a 2010 model, it may well be overstating where Martinez stands today.