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An apparent slowdown in global warming caused by a 30 year ocean cycle could lull people into a misperception that global warming has paused when it has not, reports Math McGrath of the BBC. During his phase of the cycle heat is being pulled deep into the Atlantic Ocean. This phase could last another 10 years which, if this theory is true will be followed by another 30 year period where stored up heat is disgorged back into the atmosphere adding together with the longer term global warming causing global warming to increase at a much faster rate.  

Scientists have struggled to explain the so-called pause that began in 1999, despite ever increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. ... The researchers says this slow-moving current could continue to divert heat into the deep seas for another decade.

However, they caution that global temperatures are likely to increase rapidly when the cycle flips to a warmer phase.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global average temperatures have increased by around 0.05C per decade in the period between 1998 and 2012. .... This compares with a decadal average of 0.12 between 1951 and 2012.

Other theories advanced to explain the lull in temperature rise even though CO2 levels are at record levels include soot particles reflecting heat back into space, increased volcanic activity, variation in solar radiance and periodic upwelling of cooler water from the Pacific.  


The team, lead by Prof Ka-Kit Tung from the University of Washington, US, says there is now evidence that a 30-year current alternately warms and cools the world by sinking large amounts of heat beneath these deep waters.

"Once it gets below the long-term average, then it is the next period of rapid warming."

"At the end we will be on the rising part of the staircase, and the rate of warming there will be very fast, just as fast as the last three decades of the 20th Century, plus we are starting off at a higher plateau. The temperatures and the effects will be more severe."

Professor Tung's theory predicts we have another 10 years of this lull before the rates of increase heats up faster.

My thought is that if this is the cooler lull period what's the hotter phase of this cycle going to look like?


SPL shows atmospheric humidity over the Pacific during the El Nino in 1997.

7:10 PM PT: May I call your attention to our Climate Change March in September Please support our global health by reading and recommending this great post.

Why I'm Marchin' September 21st- Climate Change, and Knowing Your Birds and Your Bees...

Originally posted to SciTech on Thu Aug 21, 2014 at 04:40 PM PDT.

Also republished by PostHuffPost: Connection-Conversation-Community and Climate Change SOS.

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