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Leading Off:

NH-Gov: Carpetbaggers are frequently tripped up by a very simple mistake: They swear up-and-down that they're really, truly a resident of the state they're running in, but often, they've accepted tax credits in their real home state that are only available to people who declare that state as their primary residence. Republican businessman Walt Havenstein, who's running for governor in New Hampshire, found himself in precisely these crosshairs earlier this year when Democrats challenged his eligibility to run in the Granite State on account of the tax breaks he'd accepted as a Maryland homeowner.

Election officials ultimately ruled that Havenstein could stay on the ballot, saying he did in fact qualify as a New Hampshirite. But that just inverted his problem, because now the state of Maryland wants Havenstein to repay the $9,000 in tax credits they gave him because, after all, he successfully argued that he was a resident of another state!

It's a particularly stupid blunder by Havenstein, because he should have seen this coming and just settled up his tax bill with Maryland before the media could make it an issue. It also gives his chief rival for the GOP nomination, conservative activist Andrew Hemingway, a nice way to hammer him just a few weeks ahead of the Sept. 9 primary. In fact, while Havenstein is the undisputed establishment choice to take on Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan, Hemingway definitely has greater appeal to the base and could be a real threat, particularly with Havenstein's tax and residency issues once again coming to the fore.

Hemingway is almost penniless, though, with just $38,000 in the bank, according to newly filed fundraising reports. Havenstein, by contrast, has $1.3 million on hand, but that's only because he's loaned himself almost $1.5 million, compared to $515,000 he raised from actual people and organizations. Hassan, meanwhile, set a state record by raising $2.1 million to date, and she still has $1.2 million in the bank.

Senate:

AR-Sen, Gov: The Arkansas Democratic Party has leaked the results of a new poll from Opinion Research Associates that, as you'd expect, has Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor out in front. Pryor has a 46-41 lead on Republican Rep. Tom Cotton, but that's actually a decline from an earlier ORA poll back in April (for a different client) that had Pryor up 48-38. It's also more optimistic than most recent polling: PPP and Hendrix College both put Cotton up 2, while even the DSCC's own survey from Anzalone had Pryor ahead just 2.

The poll also had numbers on the gubernatorial race, finding a 44-44 tie between Democrat Mike Ross and Republican Asa Hutchinson. This is the first time a poll has not found Ross trailing since April, when none other than ORA had him up 45-39.

WV-Sen: Rasmussen: Shelley Moore Capito (R): 50, Natalie Tennant (D): 33 (May: 48-39 Capito).

Gubernatorial:

AZ-Gov: One more poll, this time from Harper Polling for Republican consulting firm DC London, finds state Treasurer Doug Ducey on track to win next week's GOP primary. Ducey leads former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith 32-19, very similar to the advantage he's had in other surveys. Unless all the recent polling's wrong, Ducey should have this one. But then again, all the recent polling has exclusively come from Republican pollsters, so don't rule anything out!

Meanwhile, Democrat Fred DuVal, who's had his party's nomination to himself pretty much right from the start, is waiting in the wings—and he says that the RGA is ready to pounce with a $500,000 ad buy right after the primary's over. This hasn't been confirmed elsewhere yet, but there's no reason to disbelieve DuVal, and if the RGA does jump in, they'll likely go negative right away.

CT-Gov: Rasmussen: Tom Foley (R): 45, Dan Malloy (D-inc): 38.

OR-Gov: Aside from a couple of odd Republican polls back in April, Democratic Gov. John Kitzhaber's held double-digit leads over his underfunded Republican challenger, state Rep. Dennis Richardson, in every single poll of Oregon's gubernatorial race. So that's good reason to be skeptical of an OnMessage survey the RGA touting that has Kitz up just 42-38.

Here's the biggest warning sign: The poll is from all the way back in June, which almost certainly means these are some rosy numbers that someone is dusting off to try to convince donors that Richardson has a shot. So even if this poll was on the mark back then, why would you trust it over more recent data? Also bear in mind that OnMessage's 2012 polls were all biased in the Republican direction, and two of their three late public polls missed by nearly 20 points apiece. Once again, beware of Republicans bearing polls.

RI-Gov: Labor unions have generally been supportive of Providence Mayor Angel Taveras' bid for governor, since Treasurer Gina Raimondo is seen as cozy with Wall Street and attorney Clay Pell is mostly an unknown. But they haven't really come out big for him, and with Taveras sliding in the polls with just a couple of weeks to go before the Democratic primary, AFSCME's new $100,000 independent expenditure (likely on mailers) probably is not enough to turn the tide, unless there's more where that came from.

A group of unions, including the state's largest, is, however, pledging a mobilization effort on Taveras' behalf, and in a low-turnout primary, that could make a big difference. But some labor organizations have backed Raimondo (mostly the building trades, which lean conservative), and the local National Education Association has endorsed Pell, so Taveras does not have unanimous labor support locked up.

House:

AR-04: Blargh. A new internal poll for Republican Bruce Westerman finds him with a hefty 47-29 lead on Democrat James Lee Witt in Arkansas' open 4th District, a longshot seat Democrats were hoping would be competitive thanks to the quality of their candidate. It doesn't look like it's turning out that way, though. Westerman's survey is from OnMessage, a firm we've criticized before (including today, in our OR-Gov item above), but their numbers are very similar to those Hendrix College put out last month that had Westerman ahead 48-34.

CA-52: Maybe it's true that the media is wrongly portraying Republican Carl DeMaio as a "moderate" because he's gay and says he's pro-choice, but it probably wasn't wise for Democratic Rep. Scott Peters to vent his frustrations on that topic at a recent meeting of a local Democratic club:

He's gotten stories in The Wall Street Journal, he's gotten stories in the National Journal, all puff pieces about how this great, new, moderate, gay Republican is coming out and running for office. And they're very psyched about it. And the Republicans in D.C., they love this.

They think, 'Wow, this guy is gonna change our party' because all they need—they don't have any out, gay members of Congress, the Republicans don't. They also don't have any African Americans. They're gonna get one and Mia Love in Utah is just a real right-wing person.

Now, maybe this was Peters' way of injecting a counter-meme into the narrative of the race, even if he takes a personal hit for it, sort of like how Mark Pryor got some brickbats for calling Tom Cotton "entitled" but ultimately may have made the charge stick. But if so, why bring Mia Love into this? It sounds more like Peters may have aired some private grievances publicly.

CO-06: Colorado's 6th Congressional District is home to one of the most hotly contested House battles in the country this year, and both sides also expected it to become a battleground over immigration. But as Politico's Jake Sherman explains, it just hasn't worked out that way. Republican Rep. Mike Coffman had been an anti-immigration zealot who's haltingly tried to reinvent himself after redistricting gave him a bluer seat, while Democrat Andrew Romanoff was potentially vulnerable to base-depressing attacks from the left over some tough immigration restrictions he passed in the legislature.

But while both candidates say that immigration is still important, internal polls show the issue is low on most voters' lists of priorities. Rather, jobs and economic issues seem to be dominant concerns, as they are in many other races—and so often are most of the time.

IA-01: We have dueling internals in Iowa's open 1st Congressional District, but they do agree on one thing: Democrat Pat Murphy is in the lead. Murphy's own poll, from Myers Research, puts him up 51-40 on Republican Rod Blum, while Blum's survey, conducted by The Polling Company, had Murphy ahead by a narrower 40-35 margin.

Amusingly, Murphy actually released his poll first, which initially prompted the Blum campaign to respond by saying that "polls now are not a good indicator of November election results" (in the phrasing of the Des Moines Register). They'd probably like to take that one back now, though it's not as though their numbers are particularly optimistic, either.

MA-06: Iraq vet Seth Moulton and his allies have been on the air for a few days, and it turns out they're spending quite a lot. Moulton, who is challenging Rep. John Tierney in the Sept. 9 Democratic primary, has put $450,000 behind a negative ad attacking Tierney, while VoteVets is shelling out another $400,000 on a positive spot. Moulton was also slated to be honored by the Red Sox at an event recognizing veterans on Thursday night, where he was to "be introduced to the Fenway Park crowd in the fourth inning while standing on the Sox dugout in full military uniform." Certainly some unusual timing, what with a major campaign underway and all.

WV-02: A new internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies for Republican Alex Mooney and the NRCC finds Mooney leading Democrat Nick Casey 40-28 in West Virginia's open 2nd Congressional District, with left-leaning independent Ed Rabel taking 8 percent and Libertarian Davy Jones 5. Even though a lot of time has passed, those numbers are very similar to a Tarrance survey from May that had Mooney on top 43-31, with Rabel at 11 and Jones at 4.

Mooney has some deep flaws, not the least the fact that he recently carpetbagged into the state after quitting his job as the director of Maryland's Republican Party, and this is an ancestrally Democratic area. But Barack Obama is as unpopular as can be in this district, with a beyond-brutal 27-72 job approval rating according to POS, so Casey is very much swimming against the tide.

Other Races:

AK Ballot: One very disappointing result from Tuesday night's primary in Alaska was the narrow defeat of Ballot Measure 1, which would have repealed legislation passed last year at the behest of Republican Gov. Sean Parnell that gave a big tax break to oil companies. But even though the energy industry fought against it fiercely, Measure 1 only failed by a 52-48 margin. (Some ballots remain outstanding, but not enough to affect the outcome.)

Unfortunately, the effort was probably undermined by the fact that the measure went before voters during a primary that only featured contested races on the GOP side, rather than a normal November election that would have had higher turnout. Nevertheless, for a red state that's ordinarily extremely friendly to extractive industries, the closeness of the contest seems like a positive sign for the future.

NV-AG: Republican attorney general nominee Adam Laxalt is Team Red's standard bearer in what is (or at least was) expected to be a very expensive race. Republicans long hoped that Laxalt, the grandson of former Sen. Paul Laxalt, could put up a tough fight against Democratic Secretary of State Ross Miller. Miller, who also comes from a prominent Nevada political family, is a likely candidate for governor in 2018, and Team Red hoped that Laxalt could stop this Democratic rising star early. Big Republican names like Dick Cheney and Newt Gingrich all supported Laxalt, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce launched a $500,000 ad blitz against Miller in the spring with the promise of more to come, and the wealthy Sheldon Adelson bankrolled a "Stop Miller Now" campaign. There was just one problem with the Republican campaign: Laxalt himself.

On Wednesday Jon Ralston, the emperor of Nevada political reporting, released Laxalt's 2012 performance review from his law firm and words cannot do it justice. The entire document is just breathtaking in how scathing it is: Some quotes about Laxalt include, "He has horrible reviews," "He is a train wreck," and "He doesn't even have the basic skill set." As Ralston points out, four attorneys conducted this review, so it's very unlikely this was the work of one boss with an axe to grind. To make things even more embarrassing, Ralston has a copy of Laxalt's own self-evaluation and the candidate is completely clueless about his flaws.

Laxalt's camp is calling the performance review's authenticity into question but Ralston stands by it. Ralston is one of the best political journalists anywhere and if he's saying this is real, you better believe it's real. Laxalt had already been battling perceptions that he was unqualified for the job of attorney general and was only running on his last name: This is certainly not going to help things. Unless there's a massive surprise down the line, it looks like Team Red is going to need to wait until 2018 before they get to put up a real fight against Miller. (Jeff Singer)

Grab Bag:

Fundraising: This is rare: The DNC actually outraised the RNC last month, something that seldom happens despite Democratic control of the White House. Democrats took in $9.3 million, compared to $8.4 million for Republicans, but the GOP has more cash-on-hand for the fall elections, $14 million versus $9.6 million.

Meanwhile, Nathan Gonzalez, moonlighting over at FiveThirtyEight, recently had a good piece emphasizing an important but under-appreciated point: It doesn't matter whether a challenger actually outraises an incumbent, but whether he or she can bring in enough money to be competitive. (Sean Trende previously made a similar argument with regard to House races.)

It turns out that over the last decade, the 17 candidates who successfully knocked off sitting senators raised an average of 79 percent of what their opponents did. This cycle, only two challengers have crossed that threshold (Alison Grimes in Kentucky and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana), but Tom Cotton in Arkansas and Dan Sullivan in Alaska are close, and Cory Gardner in Colorado entered the race late. Of course, 79 percent is no magic number—plenty of people have won raising less. But most of those victories took place in wave years, and at least so far, 2014 isn't shaping up that way.

Polltopia: We're pleased to let you know that we've reconfigured and improved the interface of the Daily Kos Elections Poll Database, which you can check out right here. The default view still shows you every single poll for every single race dating back nearly a year—the only database we know of where you can see that much data all at once. But now you can use pull-down menus to drill down to specific races (here's AR-Sen), individual pollsters (everything from PPP, for instance), particular clients (how about American Crossroads?), or even methodologies (say, every Internet-only survey)—and much more. Go ahead, give it a whirl!

Ads & Independent Expenditures (Jeff Singer):

AK-Sen: Both candidates are out with a new spot. Democratic Sen. Mark Begich takes advantage of the heated Republican primary that ended Tuesday, using clips of defeated candidates Mead Treadwell and Joe Miller attacking the eventual nominee Dan Sullivan. Treadwell and Miller hit Sullivan for not remembering fishing licenses or taxes, having weak roots in Alaska, and for being close to out-of-state interests. Treadwell has a particularity devastating line: "If you're gonna represent Alaska, it helps to know Alaska." Ouch.

Sullivan goes positive, promoting the Alaska spirit as he runs through some very picturesque outdoors. Crossroads GPS also chimes in, accusing Begich of not paying his female staffers as much as his male staffers.

AR-Sen: The DSCC spends another $368,000 against Republican Rep. Tom Cotton.

CO-Sen: The DSCC once again goes after Republican Rep. Cory Gardner as extreme on abortion. A press release says the size of the buy is $1 million.

GA-Sen: EMILY's List is spending $1 million on a new spot for Democrat Michelle Nunn. The ad is not online yet, but it will focus on a gender discrimination lawsuit against Republican David Perdue when he was CEO of Dollar General. The DSCC also chips in another $298,000.

KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell runs a classic negative ad against negative ads.

LA-Sen: The DSCC spends a whooping $2.5 million accusing Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy voting against veteran's interests, while voting to cut taxes for the wealthy. Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu features an electrician criticizing Cassidy for raising the retirement age while voting to cut his own taxes.

MI-Sen: Ending Spending goes negative against Democratic Rep. Gary Peters.

NC-Sen: Senate Majority PAC once again hits Republican Thom Tillis on education. The DSCC throws in another $455,000.

NH-Sen: Next Gen Climate goes negative on Republican Scott Brown.

VA-Sen: Republican Ed Gillespie is out with his first ad, touting his humble origins before talking about his business policies.

WV-Sen: Republican Shelley Moore Capito goes after Democrat Natalie Tennant on Obamacare.

AR-Gov: Republican Asa Hutchinson responds to a recent Democrat spot accusing him of illegally taking out a tax break on his home. The narrator says Hutchinson made a mistake and reported it, and fuck Barack Obama (he may not have used those exact words).

AZ-Gov: Better Leaders for Arizona, a PAC backing corporate attorney Christine Jones, accuses Republican primary rival Treasurer Doug Ducey of hiding his failures as the former head of Cold Stone Creamery. Jones also has another spot touting her business background, as really repetitive music plays.

IA-Gov: Republican Gov. Terry Branstad goes positive.

IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn once again goes negative on Republican Bruce Rauner.

ME-Gov: Independent Elliot Cutler accuses his two rivals of ducking debates.

SC-Gov: Democrat Vincent Sheheen attacks Republican Gov. Nikki Haley for covering up a major security breach after hackers stole millions of Social Security numbers from a state agency.

CA-52: Democratic Rep. Scott Peters touts his support for the No Budget, No Pay Act, and his decision to donate his salary during the shutdown.

CO-06: Democrat Andrew Romanoff talks about student loans.

GA-12: Democratic Rep. John Barrow describes how he took on the Obama Administration to deepen the Port of Savannah.

IL-12: Crossroads GPS attacks Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart on the national debt.

NY-24: Democrat Rep. Dan Maffei is out with his first spot, calling for equal pay for women.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (13+ / 0-)

    Get the Daily Kos Elections Digest in your inbox every weekday. Sign up here.

    by David Nir on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 05:00:03 AM PDT

  •  Detroit News: "GOP Should Try To Get It Right" (6+ / 0-)

    The Detroit News is pissed - and legitimately scared - this morning that the tea party may be close to turning the MIGOP convention this weekend into a circus:

    A voter might wonder what gay marriage, abortion and the Second Amendment have to do with the University of Michigan Board of Regents. The answer, of course, is very little.

    But you wouldn’t know that from the nasty and absurd battle that’s going on leading up to the Republican Party’s state convention this weekend.

    A minor seat has become the epicenter in the struggle for the heart of the state party, and how the UM regent’s nomination fight turns out will say a lot about the future of Republicans in Michigan.

    Most of the attention in terms of the great GOP divide has centered on the tea party’s effort to replace Lt. Gov. Brian Calley with one of its own, the lightly qualified Wes Nakagiri. If Calley is booted from the ticket, it will be a disaster for Gov. Rick Snyder, who is already in an irrationally close race with Democrat Mark Schauer.

    Adding a right-wing bomb thrower like Nakagiri to the ticket would drive away in droves the independent voters who ended the Democratic reign in Lansing by electing Snyder in 2010. If Republicans think there are enough hard-core conservatives in Michigan to carry the party to victory this fall, well, they should roll the dice.

    ...

    Two seats are up for grabs on the UM board. The tea party is pushing physician Rob Steele and former regent Dan Horning as the nominees, the same pair who ran last time and lost. So-called establishment Republicans favor Ron Weiser, the former state party chairman and GOP fundraising champion.

    Like Calley, Weiser is a solid conservative. But unless a candidate stands in the street and hurls insults at gays or kneels in prayer outside an abortion clinic, he’s not conservative enough for a tea party movement that’s been co-opted by the religious right.

    ...

    It's been funny (and sad) to see the conservative Detroit News who helped make the monster that is the tea party in this state increasingly launching war against them.  The News decrying the takeover of the party like the religious right.  I never thought I'd see the day.

    Honestly, if Schauer can't win with the years worth of GOP drama he has to work with, then we are truly lost.

    No More Mikes: Eric Schertzing for Congress

    by MetroGnome on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 05:10:41 AM PDT

  •  In Alaska, I believe the tradeoff was the tax b... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    RainDog2

    In Alaska, I believe the tradeoff was the tax bill now means either a pot referendum or a minimum wage bill or both on the general ballot.

  •  RI gov turnout? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    I wouldn't be so sure that turnout will be low, given contested races all up and down the ballot. In my legislative district, there are contests for Governor, Lt. Gov, Secretary of State, Congress (Cicilline vs. Some Dude), Providence mayor, state rep, and state Senate.

    There's also a hot race in RI-Gov on the GOP side.

    I'll be working as an election clerk, and anticipate a pretty lively day.

  •  Yeah well that's nice .. . (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pilotshark, Parthenia

    but according to a Boston Globe poll, Scott Brown has closed a 12 point gap with Jeanne Shaheen and they are now tied in the NH Senate race. I don't understand that, can't see any explanation for it, but that's what they say. Could just be an outlier.

    •  That's the nature of this blog, therealcervantes.. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Ellid

      ...and I say that as a true fac of DailyKos.

      We tend to trumpet favorable "outliers" (i.e. whenever a favorable Wendy Davis or Allison Grimes poll is released...even from useless pollsters like Survey USA), and int he same breath dismiss unfavorable outliers.

      It's the nature of a partisan blog, I'm afraid :)

      The truth is, even if the poll is off a couple points, the gap has likely narrowed and we should cast our gaze on the internals to see if something can be adjusted. Scott Brown shouldn't be within 10 points of her in that race.

      I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

      by Love Me Slender on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 06:29:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's *not* the nature of DKE (4+ / 0-)

        We try to look at all the information in an objective manner.

        The UNH poll on NH-Sen wasn't released until late last night, so it won't show up in the Morning Digest, which covers news available during the day yesterday. It will likely be covered in today's Live Digest and tomorrow's Morning Digest.

        •  Point taken about DKE...I stand corrected... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          itskevin, Ellid

          I should have clarified. I was speaking generally about the hyperbolic responses and rec-listed diaries when some crazy poll result is released. DKE is (and always has been) very good and fair about these numbers. I apologize.

          I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

          by Love Me Slender on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 07:03:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  UNH poll--covers "likely voters" (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          katesmom, AlexcSinger, Parthenia

          First of all, it seems that the UNH poll has too many "undecideds" to be accurate:

          2014 U.S. Senate Election
          Despite considerable media attention, very few voters have decided who they will vote support in the race for the U.S. Senate seat from New Hampshire. Only 27% of likely voters say they have definitely decided who to support, 13% are leaning towards
          someone, and 60% are still trying to decide.
          http://cola.unh.edu/...

          Secondly, the model is of "likely voters."

          Is the model turning from general public and registered voters to "likely" voters?

          Is that what all the tightening and pulling ahead by Republicans is all about?

          How reliable are "likely voter" models when you add in over 4000 people hired by the DSCC for the ground game?

          They didn't take ground game into account in 2012 and had the presidential race much more favorable to Republicans.

          I tend to wear rose-colored glasses, but I seriously would like to know if anyone has an opinion on this one.

          History is a guide, not a destination.

          by NCJan on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 08:04:16 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Similar opinion to yours (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            NCJan

            Democrats are focusing on drop-of Democrats, whose tendency to skip non-presidential elections would exclude them from likely voter models. Not that Democrats have secret knowledge the drop-offs will actually vote. It's just that the math says if the drop-offs can be turned out, Democrats will win. I grant an argument could be made for identifying and persuading actual swing voters, or registering new voters, but drop-offs are already persuaded about party, and they're registered. They just need to be persuaded to vote, and we know a strong ground game adds a few percent to the vote totals.

            •  It seems like DSCC agrees with you (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              katesmom

              "DSCC invests $60M in ground game to defend majority in midterms"

              According to a New York Times report, the DSCC’s effort includes more than 4,000 paid staffers and will target 10 states: Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, North Carolina, Michigan, Montana and West Virginia.
              Read more: http://thehill.com/...

              And here's the link to the New York Times article (about the "Bannock Street project") that The Hill references:

              http://www.nytimes.com/...

              Although the ground game staff and volunteers will probably try to do some persuasion, it's much more about getting out the base. And I'm pretty sure that at least so far, none of the meta polling pundits have calculated the value of this extensive an investment.

              History is a guide, not a destination.

              by NCJan on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 03:06:58 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  They are going gaga on POLITICO over it (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Parthenia

      What's the deal with the poll? Did Senator Shaheen make a gaffe or have a bad week or is this an Obama backlash?

    •  It's a UNH poll (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, askew, Parthenia

      they're wildly erratic, showing one candidate up big one month, the other the next month, and back again the third month.

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 07:32:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  The Globe usually isn't an outlier (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Love Me Slender

      Shaheen is in danger of pulling a Martha Coakley if she doesn't do something fast.

      And oh, speaking of Coakley...what are her polling numbers like?  Because I have this awful feeling she's going to faceplant again when she faces Charlie Baker in November.

      This isn't freedom. This is fear - Captain America

      by Ellid on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 07:37:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Globe (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew, katesmom, The Caped Composer

        is not able to rise above statistical law and make itself immune to outliers. And this poll was conducted by UNH, which as James Allen says above, is notorious for wildly fluctuating numbers.

        •  It may be an outlier, but... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Ellid

          ...we should still keep a close eye on that race. As much as I hate saying it, a good Rasmussen poll could help us understand what's really going on in NH because thus far their senate polls have been pretty reliable.

          I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

          by Love Me Slender on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 07:54:09 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  there are many more reliable firms than (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            itskevin

            Rasmussen.

            We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

            by James Allen on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 10:51:26 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I agree, but where are their polls? :) (0+ / 0-)

              At least Ras runs them.

              I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

              by Love Me Slender on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 12:43:36 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  there are plenty (0+ / 0-)

                We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

                by James Allen on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 12:52:37 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  James, have you looked at the dates on those? (0+ / 0-)

                  That average dates back to April...virtually worthless at this point..and the most recent aside from the UNH poll was in July.

                  This is the only poll conducted in the last month. We need more RECENT polls on this race.

                  I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

                  by Love Me Slender on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 05:20:12 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  Polling (0+ / 0-)

                    doesn't really start in earnest until after Labor Day. We'll get lots of new polls soon!

                    •  I sure hope so...because the polls out ther now... (0+ / 0-)

                      ...really have me nervous, and there doesn't seem to be much urgency among national Democrats given that we're just over 2 months from the 2014 general.

                      By comparison, the GOP is really ramping up efforts in these states. My sources tell me that ads are starting to run furiously in these areas...and even where I live where they are relatively safe in midterm elections (Indiana), the ads are carpet-bombing the airwaves.

                      Whatever the DNC strategy is, we need to see it...and soon.

                      I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

                      by Love Me Slender on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 10:04:05 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                  •  why do you think the race has changed since last (0+ / 0-)

                    month?

                    We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

                    by James Allen on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 09:36:11 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  I think the voting public in general... (0+ / 0-)

                      ...has turned a but on Democrats in general. Whether it's the still-flailing economy, Iraq, or a combination of factor, the trending is unmistakeable.

                      And Shaheen isn't the only Democrat to see a slight reversal of fortunes these past several weeks. As a matter of fact, have a look at the RCP averages in ALL of the battleground states (NC, KY, CO, IA, LA...even MI). We're moving backwards in virtually all of them.

                      http://www.realclearpolitics.com/...

                      But you see, here at DK (again, not referring to DKE, but among the general populace), we trot out a semi-favorable PPP poll once in a while...then point and laugh at the GOP and think all is well.

                      All is NOT well...and while it is encouraging to see Dems digging in and getting the GOTV ground game rolling, we have an uphill climb based on where things truly stand heading into 2014.

                      Sorry for the pessimism/realism, but I'm not really one for paining happy faces where there should be concern.

                      I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

                      by Love Me Slender on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 10:00:22 AM PDT

                      [ Parent ]

                      •  realism? (0+ / 0-)

                        a lot of those polls are from firms that have horrendous track records, like UNH. Putting stock in them isn't realism.

                        We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

                        by James Allen on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 10:35:37 AM PDT

                        [ Parent ]

                        •  Are you kidding me? For God's sake... (0+ / 0-)

                          There was a diary on the DK rec list for nearly an entire day with a Kansas Gov poll from Survey USA...probably the worst polling firm in the history of the planet.

                          Sorry, but we aren't allowed to cherry-pick the polling we like just because it gives the results we like. And for the record, the firm with the most favorable Obama JAR has been Rasmussen (45-50% favorable, while the rest of the world has it between 37-42%)...the firm that is roundly criticized and mocked for its right-leaning nature.

                          I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

                          by Love Me Slender on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 10:45:27 AM PDT

                          [ Parent ]

                          •  Survey USA isn't the worst (0+ / 0-)

                            they are bad with certain things, like house races. But a lot of other firms don't publicly release house polls, so you can't really compare that much. In general they aren't that bad, compared to other firms (you know if you want to use actual data and not just talk).

                            We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

                            by James Allen on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 11:01:54 AM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

                          •  You have to be kidding...please say you are... (0+ / 0-)

                            You're using 2012 LV models as the barometer for polling accuracy?

                            Nearly every polling firm had the LV model 100% dead-wrong leading up to that one. Most polls showed Romney beating Obama...some up until the day Obama cleaned his clock.

                            And it's worth noting that PPP was ranked even lower than SUSA on the list you provided, so my point still stands, unopposed.

                            We cherry pick polls here that we like...trumpet them...then poo-poo polls we don't like simply because of their results (see the orgasmic response to the wildly-inaccurate SUSA Kansas Gov poll and the wailing about the UNH poll as two shining examples of this in play).

                            It's the nature of a partisan blog, so deal with it.

                            Have a terrific day.

                            I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

                            by Love Me Slender on Sat Aug 23, 2014 at 02:10:31 PM PDT

                            [ Parent ]

      •  If NH becomes a toss-up, we're in deep trouble... (4+ / 0-)

        We are already losing WV, MT and SD for certain. AR, AK, LA, IA and NC are precarious, at best, for our side. If NH is in play, we now have to devote resources to keeping it that could have otherwise allowed us to squeeze out keeping the senate.

        But right now, I'd say it's 75-80% likely that we'll lose the senate unless the dynamics of these races change...and FAST.

        I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

        by Love Me Slender on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 07:51:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

          I can't believe how blase people have been about this race, and the Massachusetts governors' race.

          This isn't freedom. This is fear - Captain America

          by Ellid on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 09:01:04 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  You forgot CO (0+ / 0-)

          You forgot CO

          •  WAS trying to forget... (0+ / 0-)

            Thanks a lot! :)

            I'm making light of this, of course, but it could go SOOOO badly for our side if we can't turn this around.

            Imagine if the GOP holds its seats and picks up 10 seats (MT, SD, WV, AR, AK, LA, IA, NC, NH). That makes the senate 55-45 (unless my math is incorrect)...not filibuster-proof, but large enough to completely derail the rest of Obama's 2nd term.

            Hell, even 52-48 (picking up 7 of the aforementioned states) would probably accomplish that task. Looking scary for 2014, that's for damn sure.

            I have never been fond of holding my nose and doing anything...even when someone farts in the elevator.

            by Love Me Slender on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 12:48:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  Oh yes... And if New Mexico gets competitive, t... (0+ / 0-)

          Oh yes...

          And if New Mexico gets competitive, then we're really fucked...

          Good thing that, like New Hampshire, isn't really a problem (except in the heads of some people who still have an irrational fear of Scott Brown)

      •  weren't you also down on Liz Warren's chances? (0+ / 0-)

        We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

        by James Allen on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 10:49:51 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Shaheen leads 46-44 in this poll. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Parthenia, The Caped Composer

      It also started with 827 registered voters and then somehow dwindled to 609 likely voters, which are the only voters represented in these results. That's over 200 respondents whose opinions got lopped off because they didn't fit into the Likely Voter screen, whatever that was.

  •  Not only this . . .. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Pilotshark, Woody
    But that just inverted his problem, because now the state of Maryland wants Havenstein to repay the $9,000 in tax credits they gave him because, after all, he successfully argued that he was a resident of another state!
    they should be throwing his sorry ass in the slammer for tax fraud!

    (hey, I just kid of course, after all I've been around long enough to have heard of the IOKIYAR meme that trumps everything else)

  •  NV-AG: Laxalt suited for judgeship next time (0+ / 0-)

    Republicans are picking nominees.

    Too many legal skills would be a distraction from pursuing pre-determined political agenda.

  •  Re: NY-24 (0+ / 0-)

    That is actually Maffei's second spot.

  •  Bad news from New Hampshire (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Parthenia

    According to the Boston Globe, Scott Brown is tied with Jeane Shaheen in the Senate race.  Not good at all, and I'm surprised there's no coverage of this.

    This isn't freedom. This is fear - Captain America

    by Ellid on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 07:35:25 AM PDT

    •  Here's the link (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Parthenia

      This isn't freedom. This is fear - Captain America

      by Ellid on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 07:35:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  People forget that New England (0+ / 0-)

      is a VERY retail politics oriented region and that the locals do not stand for people who take their votes for granted. New Hampshire is known for its wild swings in elections every two years so it is not a state that people can take for granted.

      •  "Retail politics oriented"? (0+ / 0-)

        Uh...I've lived in New England my entire adult life and I've never heard that term.

        This isn't freedom. This is fear - Captain America

        by Ellid on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 08:59:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  It's not the term "retail politics" (0+ / 0-)

          It's the fact that New England is very small town oriented with political town committees and weak to non existent county governments. The locals expect you to basically go to both major and minor events and they hold it against you if you come across as "phoning it in." This is what happened to Martha Coakley in 2010. She genuinely believed that all she had to do was put her name on the ballot with a (D) next to her name and she'd waltz into the Senate. She barely campaigned and many people took it out on her by voting for Scott Brown or not voting at all.

          •  There's more to Coakley than that (0+ / 0-)

            She is not well liked thanks to the Fells Acres Day Care case in the 80's, which kneecapped her in Middlesex County.  Add in that the state Democratic Party basically anointed her even though there were other candidates (one of whom was a seasoned campaigner) running, and it's more complex than simply local politics.  Boston is the difference, at least in Massachusetts.

            This isn't freedom. This is fear - Captain America

            by Ellid on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 09:30:44 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Shaheen still leads by 2 points in this poll. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, Parthenia

      The MSM always calls it a "statistical tie" when the Democrat's lead is within the margin of error, but when the Republican's lead is within the MOE the headline always reads that they're ahead.

    •  there is (0+ / 0-)

      link

      "don't believe the hype".

      We no longer ask if a man has integrity, but if he has talent. - Rousseau, Discourse on the arts and sciences

      by James Allen on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 10:52:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  In CO - 6th Congressional District (0+ / 0-)

    Andrew Romanoff continues to bang on the "deficit".  Andy did you hit your head?  I like Romanoff, but his message is stuck in 2012.

  •  Sad for WV (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    Looks like we're going to lose Jay's seat to the awful SMC who is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wall St. & the Kochs. She's had Paul Ryan, and most recently Mitt here to campaign for her, and it seems to be working!

    Poor Natalie Tennant is being pummeled by non-stop negative ads, and is being drowned by the GOP/1% money machine..

    What a shame! :-(

    You have your right to your opinion, I will grant you that, but do not denigrate my right to mine!

    by MrQA on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 09:19:24 AM PDT

    •  And we are surprised why? (0+ / 0-)

      The Democratic Party is dying a slow and painful death in West Virginia. As the party has become more urban, more educated, more demographically diverse, and more secular, we are going to lose states like Arkansas and Virginia where the population is rural, less educated, and more pro Evangelical Christian. The fact that Al Gore couldn't win this state back in 2000 basically speaks for itself. The surprise is that the Democrats have held on this long in the Mountain State.

      •  Hmmm (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Midwesterners

        So to extend that logic, moving forward, if your state doesn't have a major urban center, highly educated people, or a more secular populace D's are SOL?

        Sorry, can't buy that paradigm. I think it's an issue of "giving up" (characterized by your statements). There are far more registered D's in WV., but if they are only bombarded with the GOP message, or a GOP GOTV drive, what else can we expect.

        The party gave up this campaign b4 it even started. So yeah, I'm not surprised at all.

        You have your right to your opinion, I will grant you that, but do not denigrate my right to mine!

        by MrQA on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 09:50:25 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Virginia (0+ / 0-)

        as opposed to West Virginia, has actually been getting more Democratic lately.  "As the party has become more urban, more educated, more demographically diverse, and more secular", so has the state.  

        38, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Fri Aug 22, 2014 at 10:34:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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