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Interactive map of Arizona's congressional districts
Voters in Arizona and Florida go to the polls Tuesday in our penultimate primary day of the cycle (Vermont is also up, but there are no notable federal or statewide races to watch). Additionally, voters in Oklahoma will select nominees in runoffs for races where no candidate won more than 50 percent in the June 24 primary. Below is our guide to each state. We'll be liveblogging the results at Daily Kos Elections starting at 7:00 PM ET, when polls start to close.

AZ-Gov (R): We have a nasty Republican race to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Jan Brewer. State Treasurer Doug Ducey, who has long been viewed as the tentative frontrunner, looks like he'll come out on top but is not assured a victory. Former Mesa Mayor Scott Smith entered the race late and has earned the endorsement of Brewer. Former GoDaddy attorney Christine Jones is heavily spending her own money. Secretary of State Ken Bennett is also in the mix but has attracted very little attention.

The three major candidates and their well-funded allies have been busy targeting one another. Ducey has primarily been attacked for his service as CEO of Cold Stone Creamery; Jones has been portrayed as dishonest about her past and weak on immigration enforcement; Smith has been targeted for his past support of the Obama Administration's Medicaid expansion. Ducey has posted clear leads in the last few polls, but given how bad GOP primary polls have been this year a surprise is always possible. The winner will take on Democratic Regent Fred DuVal. Team Blue starts out the underdog but has a shot here, though the relatively moderate Smith would probably be DuVal's toughest foe.

Head over the fold for a look at Tuesday's other key races.

AZ-01 (R): Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick is expected to be a major Republican target in this light red northern Arizona seat, but her competition is unimpressive. State House Speaker Andy Tobin looked like the clear frontrunner when he entered the race, and is the preferred candidate of national Republicans. However, Tobin's fundraising has been very weak, and he has not been able to run any ads. Tobin also got some attention in the final week of the race when he suggested immigrant children could be carrying Ebola.

Even so, Tobin's probably the most formidable GOP candidate. Rancher Gary Kiehne can self-fund but is very undisciplined, making news in March for suggesting that “99 percent of (mass shootings) have been by Democrats pulling their guns out and shooting people.” Freshman state Rep. Adam Kwasman has been a weak fundraiser and he became a national laughingstock in July when he confused a bus full of YMCA campers for undocumented child immigrants. A recent independent poll shows this as a tossup between Tobin and Kwasman.

AZ-07 (D): Two well-known Democrats are facing off in this open and safely blue Phoenix seat. State Rep. Ruben Gallego, who has the endorsement of Daily Kos, has outspent former Maricopa County Supervisor Mary Rose Wilcox $352,000 to $313,000 in the last month-and-a-half, and has posted leads in what few polls there are. Wilcox for her part has the endorsement of retiring Rep. Ed Pastor.

This race has gotten very nasty. Wilcox made news in June when she tried to get Gallego thrown off the ballot for changing his name: Gallego was originally born Ruben Gallego Marinelarena, and changed his name legally in 2008 to honor his mother, who raised him and his siblings after his father left. Wilcox has also accused Gallego of supporting stand-your-ground laws and used Trayvon Martin's likeness in mailers.

AZ-09 (R): Two Republicans are competing to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema in this light blue seat outside of Phoenix. Air Force veteran Wendy Rogers has outspent Andrew Walter, a former ASU and NFL player, $221,000 to $158,000 in the last several weeks. Walter ran into some controversy for hosting a fundraiser with booze, cigars, and guns.  

AZ-AG (R): Republican Attorney General Tom Horne has made news during his first term, but for all the wrong reasons. Horne is currently under investigation for allegedly using state personnel and resources for his campaign. Horne also got some horrible headlines when an FBI investigation caught him fleeing a fender-bender in a parked garage as he was leaving from an affair.

Prominent Republicans are largely either backing Horne's primary foe, former state Gambling Director Mark Brnovich, or remaining neutral. Horne has outspent Brnovich but he looks like he's in big trouble on Tuesday. The Democrats are fielding Felecia Rotellini, who did relatively well against Horne in 2010. Rotellini's odds would be much better if the damaged Horne made it through on Tuesday, but she looks formidable in her own right.

FL-18 (R): Freshman Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy holds a light red seat, but the Republicans have a disappointing crop of six candidates to choose from. Former state Rep. Carl Domino looks like the consensus choice and he has outspent each of his opponents, but a surprise is possible in this low-intensity race. Also in the mix are former Tequesta Councilmember Calvin Turnquest and Alan Schlesinger, the 2006 GOP U.S. Senate nominee in Connecticut.

FL-26 (R): Five Republicans are trying to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia in this Democratic-trending but still swingy seat. The clear favorite in the GOP primary is Miami Dade School Board Member Carlos Curbelo, who has raised far more than any of his contenders. Scandal-tarred former Rep. David Rivera is also running, and while Democrats would love him to win, he looked like a longshot even before he was named a co-conspirator in a campaign finance case.

OK-05 (R): Two Republicans are facing off in the runoff for this heavily Republican Oklahoma City-area seat. State Corporate Commissioner Patrice Douglas has outspent former state Sen. Steve Russell $202,000 to $149,000 in the homestretch. However, Russell narrowly out-polled Douglas in June despite being heavily outspent. Russell may also get a boost from his military background: He was one of the soldiers who captured Saddam Hussein in 2003.

Other statewide races:

Arizona will host competitive Republican primaries in open seat races for secretary of state and state treasurer. In Florida, two Democrats are competing to unseat Republican Attorney General Pam Bondi: George Sheldon, who has had a long career in state politics, and state House Minority Leader Perry Thurston. Either Democrat would start out at a severe financial disadvantage to the well-funded Bondi.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Aug 25, 2014 at 07:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (11+ / 0-)

    Senior Elections Writer, Daily Kos. 24, male, CA-18 (home and voting there), LA-02 (resident). Formerly known as Darth Jeff.

    by Jeff Singer on Mon Aug 25, 2014 at 07:00:02 AM PDT

  •  Last week, I wrote a Florida election preview (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jeff Singer, js18, nimh

    here that covers not only the congressional primaries in competitive districts, but literally every single federal and state-level primary. I hope that it's helpful!

    20, FL-07. UCF student pursuing a B.A. in Political Science, future teacher/politician. Yes, I'm proudly supporting Charlie Crist! "The Republican vision is clear: I've got mine, the rest of you are on your own." -Elizabeth Warren

    by Tyler Yeargain on Mon Aug 25, 2014 at 07:23:23 AM PDT

  •  still running a survey (0+ / 0-)

    on races where Climate Hawks Vote should get involved. It's a one question survey - check it out, people who are smart and opinionated on national races!

  •  In your OK-05 coverage (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Jeff Singer

    Did you mean Russell out-polled Douglas in the primary or vice-versa? Right now you have "Russell narrowly out-polled Russell in June..."

    "We are the leaders we've been waiting for." - Paul Wellstone

    by MrLiberal on Mon Aug 25, 2014 at 07:58:09 AM PDT

  •  holy crap Arizona races are funny (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico, TrueBlueDem

    In one race you have an ice cream guy running against some wacko and someone from GoDaddy.com

    In another race you have a guy who was caught by the FBI  having an affair and got into a hit and run situation.

    In another race you have a guy who said immigrants are bringing ebola into the US, running against a guy who says Democrats are 99% responsible for all mass murders because Dems like to shoot shit up (even though Dems generally are less gun friendly) running against a third guy whose claim to fame was harassing a bunch of YMCA campers who he thought were a bunch of dirty illegals from Central America.

    These crazy fuckers must be smoking a shit load of peyote out there.  Either that or the sun has fried what little brain cells they had to begin with.

    This is your world These are your people You can live for yourself today Or help build tomorrow for everyone -8.75, -8.00

    by DisNoir36 on Mon Aug 25, 2014 at 10:16:44 AM PDT

  •  Predictions (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TrueBlueDem, Jeff Singer, Skaje

    I don't have a really good read on any of these races, but it will be fun to see how far off I am.

    AZ-Gov:
    Ducey - 33%
    Smith - 28%
    Jones - 26%
    Bennett - 12%

    AZ-AG:
    Horne - 51%
    Brnovich - 49%

    AZ-01:
    Tobin - 45%
    Kwasman - 38%
    Kiehne - 17%

    AZ-07:
    Gallego - 50%
    Wilcox - 45%

    AZ-09:
    Rogers - 66%
    Walter - 34%

    FL-18:
    Domino - 38%
    Turnquest - 34%
    Schlesinger - 18%

    FL-26:
    Curbelo - 35%
    Martinez - 26%
    Rivera - 25%
    MacDougall - 11%

    Pragmatic progressive. Oregonian, Cascadian, and American. Keeper of the DKE glossary.

    by SaoMagnifico on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 09:23:09 AM PDT

  •  What, no Vermont preview? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    AndersonDelValle, Skaje, HoosierD42, abgin

    Okay, maybe there are no high profile races here, but there are a few interesting races (all involving write-ins) worth watching.

    The Democratic nomination for Lt. Governor will be decided by write-ins (the one Democrat planning on running withdrew at the last minute when he failed to qualify for public financing).

    The likely winner will be Progressive Party nominee Dean Corren - a former state legislator from Burlington who is running an organized effort to encourage write-in votes.

    But incumbent Republican Phil Scott is back by a large number of conservative/moderate Democrats, including the State Senate President and other elected officials. While he is not openly campaign for the Democratic nomination, many of his high profile backers have been encouraging Democratic write-ins. Winning the nomination would help cement Scott's reputation as a non-partisan centrist.

    Because of the way write-ins will be counted/reported in many towns, we probably won't know for certain who won until the weekend or early next week.

    Assuming Corren wins the Democratic nomination, he'll still be an underdog against Scott in November. But he has $200,000 in public funding (more than Scott has ever spent on his races), the backing of Democratic governor Peter Shumlin, and is probably the most formidable opponent Scott has faced in any of his statewide races.

    ---

    The race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination has become very strange in the closing weeks.

    Republicans were unable to recruit a top flight candidate, and finally settled on businessman Scott Milne - owner of a well-known travel agency and son of two former Republican officeholders.  (There are also two fringe-y candidates on the ballot in the primary.)

    Milne has proven to be an unimpressive candidate - raising very little money, making somewhat strange public sentiments, and not establishing much of a public image.

    In the last couple of weeks, a movement has developed in the Republican Party to write-in Dan Feliciano - the Libertarian Party nominee.

    At first it seemed just a minor movement - but it seems to be picking up lots of steam. A fair number of Republican leaders (including the state party Vice-Chair, the party Treasurer, the campaign manager for previous gubernatorial nominee, etc) have endorsed a write-in, and the effort has been getting media and activist attention.

    Feliciano has struck a nerve particularly over Milne's refusal to rule out Shumlin's single-payer proposal for health care financing - a real litmus issue with the Republican base.

    While it seems very unlikely that Feliciano can beat Milne, in a very low turnout August primary - in a state with completely open primaries - it is far from impossible.

    ---

    Finally, there is a small informal effort by a handful of Democrats to encourage a write-in in the Democratic gubernatorial primary.  Left-leaning Democrats frustrated with Governor Shumlin's insistence on cutting spending on social programs while refusing to entertain any tax increases on the wealthy are advocating a write-in for Doug Racine.

    Racine is the former Lieutenant Governor who narrowly lost to Shumlin in the 2010 primary. He then joined Shumlin's cabinet as Secretary of Human Services. A few weeks ago Shumlin unceremoniously fired Racine from his post - angering many former Racine supporters in how it was handled.

    The effort is limited to some social media, blogs, and person to person discussions and probably won't amount to much. But I've been very surprised by how many party activists I've heard in the last few days say they are planning to do so. Since much of the turnout in the Democratic primary will be driven by Progressives trying to get the Lt. Governor nomination for Corren, there may be a bit more of a potential audience for the effort.

    Racine write-ins don't pose any real threat to Shumlin, but it will be interesting to see how much of a spontaneous expression of dissatisfaction with Shumlin there is among the small number of hard core voters who turn out.

    --

    We won't be getting any national coverage, but will be curious to see what happens here. (If it doesn't otherwise get covered here, I'll try to post results whenever they become available.)

    My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world - Jack Layton

    by terjeanderson on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 10:57:49 AM PDT

  •  Florida Counties on Central time, and a note on AZ (0+ / 0-)

    The following counties in Florida are on Central time and will have poll closings at 8:00 pm ET/5:00 pm PT

    Bay (pop 168,852)
    Calhoun (pop 14,625)
    Escambia (pop 297,619)
    Gulf* (pop 15,863)
    Holmes (pop 19,927)
    Jackson (pop 49,746)
    Okaloosa (pop 180,822)
    Santa Rosa (pop 151,372)
    Walton (pop 55,043)
    Washington (pop 24,896)
    * Gulf County south of the Intercoastal Waterway is on Eastern Time

    This corresponds to the western half of the Panhandle.  The major cities, if you can call them that, are Panama City (Bay County) and Pensacola (Escambia County, with Santa Rosa County as part of the Pensacola metropolitan area).  There is a large military presence (NAS Pensacola, Eglin AFB, Tyndall AFB, and some Navy at Panama City, too).  Florida numbers their legislative and congressional districts starting at Pensacola and heads roughly east then south, so bear that in mind when looking at the legislative districts.

    Also note in Arizona, the Navajo Nation observes daylight savings time, unlike the rest of the state.  We may get some results from the northeastern part of the state first because of this.

  •  no review of FL governor Dem primary? (0+ / 0-)

    Well, hopefully Charlie Crist will be the Democratic nominee.

    "Tax cuts for the 1% create jobs." -- Republicans, HAHAHA - in China

    by MartyM on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 03:43:50 PM PDT

  •  AZ-09 is not really "outside" Phoenix... (0+ / 0-)

    it includes a significant chunk of Phoenix including where I happen to live.

    Just another faggity fag socialist fuckstick homosinner!

    by Ian S on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 04:14:26 PM PDT

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