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Facing the harsh criticism of his own ministers over the failure of his supply-side economic policy, French President François Hollande ordered Prime Minister Manuel Valls to form a new cabinet "consistent with the direction [Hollande] has set for the country."
Hollande's surprise decision came after the Economy Minister Arnaud Montebourg's increasingly bitter comments to the press that France had to move away from austerity policies and focus instead on growth and reducing unemployment. Montebourg attracted attention in recent days by criticising Germany, too, for the current unsatisfactory economic situation.
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Mountbourg said:
"You have to raise your voice. Germany is trapped in an austerity policy that it imposed across Europe. Today, unfortunately, the hawks... fight inflation when it disappears while forgetting to fight the essential problems such as widespread unemployment."
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A week earlier, Former French Housing Minister Cécile Duflot of the EELV (Greens Party) characterized Hollande as the man who “wanted to be everyone’s president, but ended up being nobody’s”.
She also said that Prime Minister Valls’s policies as Interior Minister (before he became PM), including the forced dismantlement of Roma camps, were indistinguishable from the opposition right-wing UMP. Her resignation, when Valls was appointed prime minister in March 2014, helped bring an end to the Greens coalition with the Socialist Party.
As PM, Valls has been leading the campaign to cut government spending by €50 billion with cuts in social security pensions, and other social benefits, as well as healthcare. The €50 billion spending cut plan is intended to be spread out over three fiscal years from 2015 to 2017, amounting to a 1.7% decrease. Meanwhile, the economy has stagnated with very slow, almost non-existent growth for a year while high unemployment rates persist.
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Change in GDP
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2013 Q3
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- 0.1% |
2013 Q4
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+ 0.2% |
2014 Q1
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+ 0.0% |
2014 Q2
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+ 0.0% |
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GDP growth for all of 2013 was +0.4%. |
The day began with an expectation that the new cabinet would be announced this afternoon. However, with contradictory news reports, and numerous rumors, the atmosphere turned chaotic. This could easily be sensationalized to seem like a crisis, especially in the US where the public isn't used to sudden outbursts of vigorous democracy. The present situation has been simmering for well over a year.
When French voters elected the Socialist Party in 2012, they soundly rejected austerity and American-style neo-liberal supply-side economics, but Hollande hasn't delivered anything like what was expected. At times, Hollande hardly seemed like a Socialist, attentive to business, and ignoring labor. The far right Front National took advantage of the trend with relentless taunts about the UMPS, a combination joining the center-right UMP with the center-left PS, with Marine Le Pen claiming that there was no difference between them. The FN's strategy gave it an edge by demotivating its competitors while stirring up excitement among rightwingers. On the Left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the Parti de Gauche, seemed to hit a wall after the FN's success in the May 25 European Parliament election. Always true and durable, he fell apart as the summer dragged out, and finally, he officially resigned from the Leftist Party a couple of weeks ago.
With Mélenchon out of the picture, the Left of the Left is gone, and as hard as it is to get over that, it makes a thorough shuffling of the deck possible and even necessary. Now it's up to the Left of the Socialists to carry the torch. Mountbourg already says he won't run in any future elections except the Presidential. Le Pen, always an opportunist, is already calling for the Assemblée Nationale to be dissolved. That would mean elections for all parliamentary seats now instead of waiting until 2017. The FN only has 3 of the Assemblée's 577 seats and it might be able to increase its representation.
However, a parliamentary election isn't necessary because the Socialist Party holds 291 seats which is enough for a majority by itself without a coalition. But the Socialists only have two seats to spare and if there are defections the situation will become much more complicated that it is now.
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Update
I was trying to find out if there was word about the Justice Minister, Christiane Taubira.
An hour and a half ago, she was spotted arriving at Matignon, the Prime Minister's residence. Of the members of Hollande's cabinet, she can be counted by the Left as genuine and authentic.
I checked her Twitter feed for a hint, since there hasn't been any announcement. Here she is. Speaking in English, today. Maybe not thinking so much about her own position, or the French government.