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I normally don't like doing two diaries about the same race in one day but PPP released their new numbers from Iowa today:

PPP's newest Iowa Senate poll finds a toss up race- Bruce Braley is at 42% to 41% for Joni Ernst with third party candidates splitting 5%. In a straight head to head the two are tied at 42%. This represents a significant tightening from PPP's last poll in May when Braley led 45/39, but is consistent with most public polling since the primary

This has become yet another key Senate race this year where the onslaught of negative advertising has left both candidates unpopular. Both Braley (from 58% to 78%) and Ernst (from 59% to 82%) have seen large increases in their name recognition since May. But in both cases their negatives are rising a lot faster than their positives. Braley's net favorability has gone from an even split at 29/29 to negative at 37/41. Ernst has gone from a -5 spread at 27/32 to a -10 spread at 36/46.

The good news for Braley in spite of his vanished lead is that the undecideds play well for him- they report having voted for Barack Obama by 13 points in 2012, and 35% are Democrats to 26% who are Republicans. They are also disproportionately female and young voters, groups that tend to play to Democrats' advantage. But clearly Braley has work to do.

One thing presenting a challenge for Braley is that Barack Obama- as he is in most of the states with key Senate races this year- is quite unpopular. Only 40% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 53% who disapprove, and with independents it's a 26/64 spread. - PPP, 8/26/14

PPP also looked at the Governor race and found Gov. Terry Branstad (R. IA) leading Jack Hatch (D. IA) 48/35. But there are some other competitive state races where Democrats could win. In the Attorney General race, Tom Miller (D. IA) leads 55/31 for re-election and in the Treasurer race, Michael Fitzgerald leads 47/33 for re-election. Bill Northey (R. IA) leads 46/28 for reelection as Agriculture Secretary. In Secretary of State race, Paul Pate (R. IA) leads Brad Anderson (D. IA) 35/34. In State  Auditor race, Mary Mosiman (R. IA) leads Jonathan Neiderbach (D. IA) 39/35.

While the race maybe tied, Braley has the advantage with the undecided voters but he has to work to win them over, which he can. So click here to donate and get involved with Braley's campaign so he can defeat Ernst come November:

Originally posted to pdc on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 10:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by The Democratic Wing of the Democratic Party.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    terranova108, bgblcklab1, Odysseus

    Funny Stuff at

    by poopdogcomedy on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 10:00:11 AM PDT

  •  This race is a must win. With it, I think (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Dems keep the Senate.  If we lose it, then I think the Dems will be in the minority next year.

    Global Shakedown - Alternative rock with something to say. Check out their latest release, "A Time to Recognize": Available on iTunes, Amazon, Google Play, Spotify and other major online music sites. Visit

    by khyber900 on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 10:17:44 AM PDT

  •  Braley needs the youth vote. (4+ / 0-)

    Per the crosstabs, the age breakdowns are:

    18-29: Braley +24 (40-16, with 37% undecided)

    30-45: Braley -7 (36-43, 17% undecided)
    46-65: Braley -1 (42-43, 10% undecided)
    >65:    Braley -3 (42-45,   8% undecided)

    Get the young people out to vote and he wins.  Fortunately, Iowa has a long early voting window (beginning 40 days prior to the general election, I believe).

    •  Braley also has some more room to win over (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      46-65 and the 65 and up crowd. He's been making Social Security a key issue in this race. Get the youth and more of the older voters on your side and you're golden.

      Funny Stuff at

      by poopdogcomedy on Tue Aug 26, 2014 at 10:27:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Absolutely a must win for (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    the democrats....we need to rally all forces we can to keep Tom Harkin's seat in blue.

    This is a hugely symbolic race to me. Iowa is a purple state, that is reliably blue in presidents races, but truly split elsewise, and having it tip to redish with both Grassley and Ernst as senators to go with the oaf,Steve King, cannot happen.

    Lets go Bruce!

  •  When two candidates are pictured side by side, (0+ / 0-)

    the one pictured on the left has the advantage because it looks like they are in the lead. Braley is actually leading in this poll, even if it is by a point, so he really belongs on the left.

  •  I'm hoping for a Mowrer <-> Braley Synergy (0+ / 0-)

    A GOTV for Mowrer sounds like a good mini-push for Braley to put him over the top.  Or vice versa.  Either way, I'm hoping for defining things from Iowa this year.

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