New polls in Michigan from EPIC-MRA and Mitchell Research and Communications are out, and they find the gubernatorial race a complete tossup. EPIC-MRA finds Democrat Mark Schauer leading Republican Gov. Rick Snyder 45-43, while Mitchell gives Snyder a 47-46 lead. Polls have consistently shown this race close, but EPIC-MRA is the first pollster in a long while to show Schauer with any lead.
EPIC-MRA also gives Snyder a rather dire 41-57 job approval rating, while Schauer posts a 26-21 favorability score. Schauer may still not be well known, but he may not need to be to win. If this poll is right, things are liable to get much worse for Snyder: It's very hard to see a governor that unpopular winning in a state that clearly leans against his party unless his challenger is utterly hated.
Both groups also take a look at the U.S. Senate race and find Democratic Rep. Gary Peters leading Republican Terri Lynn Land, though they disagree by how much. EPIC-MRA finds Peters up 45-39, while Mitchell finds him ahead only 46-44. Apart from one very strange YouGov poll for the New York Times, Peters has led in every poll since April: Even Land's allies are reportedly pessimistic. However, both parties and their allies are spending heavily here, and it's clear that neither side thinks this race is over.
We've taken a look at both pollsters' track records. EPIC-MRA has done decently in pre-election polling, though they have had some misses. Mitchell stopped polling long before election day in 2012, and they displayed some odd practices in the past. In any case, both races remain battlegrounds. Land is personally very wealthy and will spend whatever it takes to win here, while Republicans will continue to open their wallets to protect Snyder. Both sides understand the stakes in both contests and will keep fighting to the end.