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At the beginning of the year, we heard a lot of talk about how 2014 was going to be another Republican wave year, like 2010, or bigger. Now, however, it's clear that 2014 has not followed the same trajectory as 2010.

By this time in 2010, Democratic fortunes were sliding downhill fast, according to generic congressional ballot polling questions. This year—not so much. Take a look at the trends (Loess curves):

The generic ballot has been stable all year for 2014, and with a small Democratic advantage (although not nearly enough to take back the House). Things can always change—but as of now, there's no evidence of a developing Republican wave.

In past years, massive waves have been quite obvious by now. Here's the data going back to 2002:

It's only six elections worth of data, so it's difficult to draw conclusions or attempt predictions, but it's pretty clear the mood of the electorate this year is different from 2010 or 2006.

Data from HuffPost/Pollster and Real Clear Politics. Polls of Registered or Likely Voters only for 2012 and 2014.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 12:59 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  What can I say ? (17+ / 0-)

    That is really clear and concise - great stuff !

    Acting Assistant Vice Chair of the DKE international cheer squad

    by CF of Aus on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:03:20 PM PDT

    •  Yes, but let's not worry about the polls or the (15+ / 0-)

      graphs. If we turn out the vote, we will win. If not, we will lose, no matter what graphs or pre-election polls may say.

      Republicans - A pathology, not a party.

      by storeysound on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 03:55:22 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Don't "Turn Out to Vote" (5+ / 0-)

        If your state allows Permanent Absentee Voting, GO FOR IT!  Vote by mail in the privacy of your own home.  

        In Oregon EVERYBODY votes by mail, and they have fewer eff-ups, no rude, invasive ID checks, no hunting for a place to park. None of the problems that have plagued Ohio, Flaw-ri-DUH, and other states

        I have been voting by mail in California for 20 years, and have had no problems.  

        •  Yes, I'm an Oregonian (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Loose Fur

          & this method works out great.

        •  Ditto for Washington (0+ / 0-)

          but I'm still appalled at how few voters return thier ballots!

          "Conservatism: a delusional force so powerful it can bend the space-time continuum." ~RJ Eskow

          by Lakabux on Wed Sep 03, 2014 at 12:49:24 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Washington state mails in ballots too. (0+ / 0-)

          It helps a lot, so your company cannot work you early and overtime as well, to make it impossible to get to the polls. That happened to me several times, with mandatory OT, and polls closing before I could get to them.
          Mail in ballots are perfect. You can sit and study the ballot, carefully make your selections, observing the swerving lines required to find YOUR candidates box to mark, and getting it right.
          The GOP cannot foul up the polling place with long lines and no restrooms in miles to discourage voting in precincts known to be typically blue.

          Please people, IF, you don't vote, you'll be handing the controls of the nation to the people that deny climate change is even happening, deny there is still a racial issue in America, deny women the right to their own choices in procreation, and instead wrest it away and putting into the hands of radical old men, seeking to deny both contraception and abortion, making a marriage that does not, or can not support more children, a sexless marriage by default.
          I just cannot bear the thought of all the misery that would result from a GOP super majority in both houses.

  •  this encouraging. of course if we could just get (22+ / 0-)

    The dem base 50% we could control both houses........

    Ecrasez l´infame (crush the infamy) Voltaire.

    by shigeru on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:04:23 PM PDT

  •  With all the Meta going on, you're (16+ / 0-)

    gonna get all Mathy/Facty/Reality on us?

    Rock on, doe!

    "..... people don't come to Daily Kos for meta. That stuff is a tiny (if loud) fraction of overall activity on the site." Kos

    by Joes Steven on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:05:41 PM PDT

  •  I owe you a beverage! (7+ / 0-)

    "..... people don't come to Daily Kos for meta. That stuff is a tiny (if loud) fraction of overall activity on the site." Kos

    by Joes Steven on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:06:45 PM PDT

  •  It's all about turnout. (38+ / 0-)

    Registration and turnout, we do it, we win, we don't, we won't.

    This year is all about ground game. The pundits look at the ads, the story du jour, and the he said-she said moments.

    But do we get our people to the polls or not?

    "Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everybody gets busy on the proof.” ― John Kenneth Galbraith

    by Urban Owl on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:12:36 PM PDT

    •  voter suppression (13+ / 0-)

      The state GOP is playing the short game, hoping that voter suppression laws will insure and hopefully increase republican presence in the US congress.  It does not matter if the laws are proved unconstitutional. All the matters is if they pay off in the US congress.  We see this most visibly in Ohio with the recent laws to cut back absentee voting.  

      One thing to consider is in 2010 the democrat losses were limited by a incompetent tea party.  The tea party influence is much more under control.  It will take much less to result in a democrat loss, and there are many more elections to lose.  

      just saying, like always, the fight is get people to vote, not alienating them by saying they are stupid for having different opinions, and being honest about what can and cannot happen.

      She was a fool, and so am I, and so is anyone who thinks he sees what God is doing. -Kurt Vonnegut Life is serious but we don't have to be - me

      by lowt on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 02:20:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The reason the tea party (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        reasonshouldrule, starranger00

        did so well in 2010 was because of Democratic voter apathy.  Remember the recent stories about why Ferguson, Mo. has a nearly all-white government.  Only 12 percent of the eligible voters there even bother to vote.  

        That same phenomenon permeated much of the Democratic electorate in 2010; the tea party won so many of their races because so few Democrats voted.  If the Democrats vote this election it will be fine, if they stay at home they will get screwed again.  

        Nate Silver is basing his predictions of a Republican takeover of the Senate on his perception of the difference in the excitement levels between the two parties' voters.  He sees the Republicans as a lot more excited by this election while the Democrats are seemingly frustrated and dissatisfied.  I don't agree with him, but that is the basis for his current projections.  

        The point is, and this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, when Democratic voters don't vote they lose; when their turnout is high, they win.  In 2010 they stayed home by the thousands.  I think they are more motivated this year!

        •  Yes, exactly. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          iubooklover, ram27, starranger00

          Here in Michigan, in 2010, over 900,000 democrats DID NOT VOTE!  And almost 60 percent of those were women!  WE MUST VOTE!

        •  Fear, not Apathy, was the cause of 2010 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          terranova108, Lilredhead

          .... and utter Stupidity. National Democrats were so taken aback by the racist teawhackos' "townhall" vitriol and the little brat rants of the bused in instigators,,
          that they were too Afraid to campaign during the Spring / Summer of 2010 - right into September ... Even knowing that 2010 was a Census year, Dems hid!
          2010 could have been worse.

          Then, kicked in the behind by Daily Kos, Credo, a couple of other Progressive groups AND Alan Grayson, they timidly came out - APOLOGIZING for trying to undo the neo-Repubs' Crashing of the Economy!!

          You get Turnout by generating Emotion in your Base and the Indies. Modern Dems are afraid of Emotion.

          ReThugs (P.S. there are no Repubs nor neo-Repubs left) and teawhackos are flat-out WRONG on every subject!!
          BUT, do you ever hear Dems tell the Public so??

          The Repubs' ACA is an atrocious gooney bird, compared to what Dems, Indies AND Repubs wanted, true.
          (Newsflash! ACA was Nixon, Heritage's, Newt's, W's & RMoney's idea!! Not ours - again Fear.)
          BUT, ObamaCares is HELPING families in EVERY District!
          When will Dems Stand and Advertise that Fact? Alaska's Begich has.

          When will Dems reveal to the Public that this Economy, Un-Employment, AND 100% of the $17T of Debt is the Result of Wrong-headed, Stupid, Greedy R-Ideas??

          Rs & Ts are Flat Wrong! When are Ds going to Stand Up and cram those F Grades down the Rs & Ts throats??

          That's how you generate Big Mo - Stand for Something! All I hear is Rs & Ts ranting about Obama (you know, that colored-in-the-WH, isn't it just terrible!),
          While Dems whine "Help Me - the Koch's are coming."

    •  Don't forget the propaganda, ala Koch bros (0+ / 0-)

      Oregon has seen their investment and it's ugly. Their ad tells how the present Dem incumbent only got one bill made into law, and they need someone to "get working for Oregon".
      They fail to mention he sponsored 40 bills, and co-sponsored another 70 or so.
      So, do we punish him by electing someone from the party that blocked 39 of his, and 60+ of co-sponsored bills, or,  do we elect him again, and get rid of the saboteurs ?

  •  alas, I always have faith that the Dems will (4+ / 0-)

    find a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It's something they are very good at doing.

    :(

    In the end, reality always wins.

    by Lenny Flank on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:12:58 PM PDT

  •  GOTV! GOTV! Notice the dips toward the end (19+ / 0-)

    In almost every year above, the support for Dems dips as we approach the election.  I suspect this is the polling firms switching from the "registered voters" to "likely voter" polls.  Even in 2012 it drops toward election day.  But thanks to the Dems efforts to change the electorate, the likely voter models weren't as accurate as the registered voter polls.  The Dems continue with a strong GOTV effort so I think if we get our butts out and help with GOTV we're going to prevent the doom and gloom the MSM loves to talk about.

  •  we still need to get us out at the polls (14+ / 0-)

    this November, and the Dems must point out the STARK difference between the GOP and us. I hope now that Obamacare seems more popular the President gets out there and pushes and urges everyone to GOTV!!

  •  Generic Polls Don't Really Matter (9+ / 0-)

    Anyone who says they prefer Democrats to be in control of Congress but doesn't vote is effectively saying they really want Republicans to control.

    GOTV!

    “I believe all Southern liberals come from the same starting point--race. Once you figure out they are lying to you about race, you start to question everything.” ― Molly Ivins

    by RoIn on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:18:26 PM PDT

    •  Effectively Yes, But Evolutionarily They're Shun- (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude, enhydra lutris, wu ming

      ning, which through most of our history has been an expression of severe disapproval, including punishment often extending to death.

      Evolution hasn't had time to give us instincts for global market economies. Those who operate in them and need the public to perform have the responsibility of meeting the public within their own nature. Particularly in democracies.

      Bitching about voters is like bitching about audiences or customers. It's the fast track to living under the bridge.

      We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

      by Gooserock on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:24:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  One Positive Note, It's 6 Elections Where the (5+ / 0-)

    Economystupid™ has sucked in all cases. So we're comparing apples to apples in one of the most important voter baskets.

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy.... --ML King "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:21:50 PM PDT

  •  At this time in 2010, though (8+ / 0-)

    there was still "happy talk".  

    Right now my money is on a 50 seat hold for the Dems (Ernst and Udall's challenge just don't look like they are panning out), but I'm always leery of DK electoral stories because GOTV is always tied up in the analysis (i.e. bad news is undersold).  But then again, I'm one of those people who thinks that an ask for a Sisyphean task is not a bad ask.

    I'll always be...King of Bain...I'll always be...King of Bain

    by AZphilosopher on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:22:47 PM PDT

  •  Positive, promising even... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    leu2500, Stude Dude, TofG

    but far from guarantees.
    There are two hurdles to overcome...
    Gerrymandered districts, and low [democrat] voter turnout.
    We can take great steps toward redistricting [for 2016], by getting out the vote in a few weeks.
    We may not be able to take back The House this year, but we should be able to hold on to the Senate.
    Again, all depends on getting out the vote, with our eye on the main prize...
    Both Houses of Congress as well as The White House in 2016.
    With conviction an diligence, its doable.

    "These 'Yet To Be' United States" --James Baldwin-- -6.75, -5.78

    by kevinbr38 on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 01:42:41 PM PDT

    •  Kevinbr38 (0+ / 0-)

      You do realize that redistricting only happens in census years (every ten years) so we are looking at 2020 before we can fix things! And we need to win STATE ELECTIONS because redistricting is done at the state level -- we need dem govs asap!

  •  In 2010 Dems were unpopular here. I know becaus... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TofG

    In 2010 Dems were unpopular here. I know because I was one of the few defending President Obama.

  •  I'll believe it when I see it. (0+ / 0-)

    I'm hoping against hope that you are right, but I would really like some more precise sources.  I clicked on both the Huffpost polling and the RCP links that you provided, but I didn't see anything specific that looked like the data you graphed.  RCP still shows the Repubs taking the Senate.  

  •  The case to delay Immigration Reform until midterm (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, smartalek

    (1.) Holding the Senate is priority number one. We don't want to tie the Immigration Reform to loosing the Senate that will embolden the Tea Party to be more harsher to the immigrate communities.
    (2.) The GOP lawsuit/impeachment fires up the Dems base. Why step on that message with trying to explain a big executive action so, close to an election. A 60 day delay has low risk for the Dems if explain properly to the base and activist.
    (3.) Obamacare numbers are improving that good news should be tied to the GOP reckless gov't shutdown. Plus, there's another showdown coming with the re-authorization of the EX-IM Bank.
    (4.) The delay is to give the GOP last chance to get on board after the midterms. It would be a better ideal if the president host round tables with citizens, religious and business communities so, the message can't get hijack by the RWNJ.

    •  The main reason is (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      iubooklover

      The states that we need to win are mostly reddish with lots of whites and few Hispanics. Obama has another 2 years before 2016 to get this done and make Republicans look bad.

      In fact if they win the senate then he can be even more pushy, since we know that Republicans arent going to pass anything worthwhile on that front on their own.

  •  While this is clesrly (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody
  •  There! NOW maybe my fellow Democrats will stop... (6+ / 0-)

    ...wetting the bed every time some some dittohead dufus in the MSM says: 'Democrats are going to lose...' or whenever some Republican thug threatens to beat them in an election - or elsewhere!

    Courage, people!  Much of the time, we have been fighting only the shadows of our own fears.   It's time to create our own destiny!

    All that is necessary for the triumph of the Right is that progressives do nothing.

    by Mystic Michael on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 02:10:11 PM PDT

  •  While this is clearly far preferable to... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, jbsoul

    ...a generic-Dem preference that's lower, or zero, or negative, let's not forget that we don't vote for a generic Congress.
    We vote for the actual candidates available to us in our actual districts -- our gerrymandered, voter-suppressed, corporate-news-propagandized districts.
    And we're all mindful of the fact that in '12, millions more actual voters pulled the levers for the Democrats than for the Publicans...
    Yet the Publicans kept the House (tho by a lower margin than before).
    So who are the actual winners going to be this time?
    Last time I checked, the NYTimes was still saying a bit above 50% likelihood of a Publican Senate.
    Does anyone know if that's changed -- and either way, how credible their prediction might be?

  •  This is very useful diary. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Patango

    But - yes, but - I have to say that Nate Silver et al  (DKE is better) err when they go the 'quant' route. To be clear, I'm referring to quantative analysts: i.e. someone who applies mathematical techniques to financial investment. They can make big mistakes when the formula goes off the track - and I chose that term carefully. DKE is better precisely because it factors in sruff that doesn't fit into an algorithm. Quants often do well but they can fail spectacularly... Google LTCM (Long Term Capital Managenent).

    I ride the wild horse .

    by BelgianBastard on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 02:20:05 PM PDT

    •  Your concern is noted, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      BelgianBastard, Eric Nelson

      Will you love me in the morning?

      Good......

      "..... people don't come to Daily Kos for meta. That stuff is a tiny (if loud) fraction of overall activity on the site." Kos

      by Joes Steven on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 02:33:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  They're frauds, they knowingly apply (0+ / 0-)

      inappropriate models. It doesn't matter how they get the numbers as long as the finance fraudsters all agree to use them

      That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

      by enhydra lutris on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 02:54:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I wish. It would be so much easier to get... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stude Dude

        rid of them.

        They are greedy bastards but they do not knowingly apply defective models: Because, hello! Greed! I could elabirate but nobody's interested....

        I ride the wild horse .

        by BelgianBastard on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 04:10:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Actually, they do. It is a bit complicated, (0+ / 0-)

          but even Black-Scholls, the inspiration for all this later shit, isn't at all correct. It doesn't matter, everybody has agreed to use it and to rely upon those numbers in transactions among themselves, so tht makes a viable market, which is all they give a fuck about.

          That, in its essence, is fascism--ownership of government by an individual, by a group, or by any other controlling private power. -- Franklin D. Roosevelt --

          by enhydra lutris on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 05:20:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  I got it, GOTV. What does that mean? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, Stude Dude, redwagon

    Actually, I know that GOTV means "get out the vote" (though you should probably avoid insider jargon like that if you can).

    More importantly, what are we supposed to do?  Where's the action items on that message?  What organizations are working on GOTV?  Got any links?

    Here's an idea; how about a front page story "If you want to help get out the vote, here's what to do."

  •  We Got More Than 1.2 MILLION MORE House Votes (7+ / 0-)

    than Republicans in the last cycle.  Their gerrymandering is what kept them in charge of the House.....not votes.

    While we slept in 2010 & 2012 they gerrymandered.  While we slept in 2010 & 2012, they took over state legislatures step by step.  While we slept in 2010 & 2012, they took over Governerships state by state.  Then they took over abortion clinics state by state & destroyed them.

    We have two hopes.....#1: we're not going to sleepwalk thru 2014.  And.....#2: voters have now seen what Republicans brought them & what Republicans wrought over the last two years.

    •  It's not that simple snapples (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Stude Dude

      I wasn't sleeping, so please don't say "we". I volunteered and contributed money. To no avail.

      Whatever people say about the state Democratic parties, many are sclerotic and useless. I know anastasia p would disagree with me and I admire her greatly but IMHO the Ohio Democratic Party is pretty much useless. Poorly organized, lacking in real vision and leadership. God. When my husband and I first heard Ed Fitzgerald speak we looked at each other hopelessly and said "where in God's name did they get him".

      The reason the Republicans are so entrenched in Ohio is that the Democratic Party is full of career party hacks obsessed with status.

      You cannot volunteer at a local level without being made painfully aware of the social connections and status of local Democratic "leaders" who have never accomplished a thing for working people in their lives.

      The best thing that ever happened to the Democratic Party in Ohio was Howard Dean's 50 state strategy. It blew out the cobwebs and lit a fire under people's asses (sorry about the mixed metaphors).

      Wish we could have him or his strategy back. We also need some hell raising, rabble rousing Democratic politicians back in Ohio. We'd gerrymandering it back in our favor in no time.

      •  You know what snapples? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Eric Nelson, Stude Dude

        After I hit send I realized I was wrong about something. All my work was not for nothing after all. We elected Sherrod Brown anyway!

        :-)

        •  I'm A Huge Fan Of Both Howard & Sherrod, jbsoul! (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jbsoul

          Wish we had Howard Dean back too.  His 50 state strategy was brilliant & should still be the role model for every Democratic primary & general election in this country.

          But no, that enhanced scream did him in.  If Howard were running for President, I would volunteer & contribute & door-to-door & phone bank just as I did for President Obama.  Ditto for Elizabeth Warren & my dear Bernie Sanders.

          Those are my go to people.  

          •  Don't forget... (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jbsoul

            ...he became DNC chairman AFTER the "scream".  (Why are we calling it a "scream"?  That was no scream, that was a roar!)  :-)

            The '60s were simply an attempt to get the 21st Century started early; don't mistake an unfulfilled dream for a lost one. A dream has no deadline!

            by Panurge on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 07:25:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Sam Wang, the man who was more accurate.. (8+ / 0-)

    ..than Nate Silver in his 2012 predictions (according to Rachel Maddow he accurately predicted 100% on senate races) has more good news for 2014, both House (although from last year) and Senate:

    Senate Democrats are outperforming expectations - August 28th, 2014, 9:42am by Sam Wang

    Very interesting stuff. Sam Wang compares:

    I’ve been asked why the PEC Senate poll snapshot is more favorable to Democrats than forecasts you’ll find elsewhere: NYT’s The Upshot, Washington Post’s The Monkey Cage, ESPN’s FiveThirtyEight, and Daily Kos. All of these organizations show a higher probability of a Republican takeover than today’s PEC snapshot, which favors the Democrats with a 70% probability.

     - emphasis added

    With today's Sept 1, 2014 snapshot:

    And the house:
    What the Gerrymander giveth with one hand: House control in 2014 now a toss-up - October 10th, 2013, 10:30am by Sam Wang
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    Thx dreaminonempty for the analysis - good deal

  •  Blowing my mind (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude

    It's blowing my mind to hear people talk about DKE being too hackish in their prediction for Dems.  Perhaps, they are talking about tha mainpage, because I've found DKE too be far more pessimistic than me, and people probably consider me Baghdad Bob, here.

    No More Mikes: Eric Schertzing for Congress (MI-08)

    by MetroGnome on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 07:43:42 PM PDT

  •  I dunno... just a little dip & it's '02 redux (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stude Dude, TofG

    That is, all that '14 line has to do is drop below zero.  Not to buzzkill -- thanks for optimism-grounded-in-some-realism.  Some significant GOP ass is still kickable if we GOTV.  Thanks for research --interesting stuff.

    "Happiness is the only good. The place to be happy is here. The time to be happy is now. The way to be happy is to make others so." - Robert Ingersoll

    by dackmont on Mon Sep 01, 2014 at 07:49:06 PM PDT

  •  Check Out This Model That Supports DK Contention (0+ / 0-)

    There is a model in this article that is amazingly accurate in predicting how the House will turn out.  It has GOP +4, and the equation is driven largely by the generic ballot.  
    http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/...

  •  GOP winning six seats was always a long shot (0+ / 0-)

    Even my GOP friends agree that winning a net six seats was always more of a hope than a goal.  That said, the polls are encouraging them now.  My prediction has been (for a year) and remains, GOP net +5 seats for 50-50 tie with Biden keeping Dems in leadership.

    Obviously Dems start net three in the hole:  WV, SD, MT.  These are over.  That means GOP needs three from the following six:  NC, Ark, LA, IA, CO, and Alaska.  I don't really think NH and MI are in play, but they are competitive, and the GOP is close enough that a Dem screw-up there could hand the seat to the GOP.  Nunn and Grimes are also competitive, but the red lean of those two states, combined with Perdue and McConnell's name rec, will keep those seats red.

    So,...Dems aren't going to win ALL of the six toss-up seats, but they need to win 67% of them to keep control.  If I had to handicap it right now, I'd say the GOP wins LA and Ark.  Dems win CO and IA (barely, as this state seems to be trending red).  Senate control comes down to who wins NC and/or Alaska.

    The above data aside, when you look at individual polls from these states, and consider that conservative voters are more likely to come home in the end, than vote for a Dem, it doesn't look good.  Afterall, a majority of the voters in four of these six states voted for Mitt Romney.  That is saying something....  

  •  Well yeah... (0+ / 0-)

    Of course the Dems have the advantage, if ever so slight.  It's not that people are terribly enamored of them, it's just that the GOP has gotten so openly batsh*t in recent years that no sane, well-informed person would vote for them.

    •  "well-informed" is the rub ... (0+ / 0-)

      I'm not yet to the point of thinking most of my fellow citizens are insane, but well-informed, that's a different matter.  We've taken on the great project of becoming the dumbest country on earth, and we're doing right well so far, much to the right wing's benefit.

  •  What is Missing (0+ / 0-)

    here are the corresponding graphs for the Republicans.  Those graphs would make this narrative truly meaningful.  Without those graphs this is only half of the picture.  And therefore not nearly as descriptive as it might have been!  If this had included the Republican lines it would be much clearer where the Democrats stand.  

    It's just my feeling based on several quick looks at the polls but in spite of what all the dooms dayers are projecting I believe strongly that the Democrats will maintain control of the Senate, and may even gain a few seats in the House.

    I just don't think Nate Silver has this one.  And I don't believe that the Senate will be lost.  It's still a little early for such statements, but I think a lot of fear mongering here and elsewhere by the Democrats is designed to obtain campaign contributions.  As long as this fear mongering keeps garnering contributions the Democrats will keep pretending that the end of the (electoral)  world is near.  But it isn't!

  •  Do NOT... (0+ / 0-)

    Take the rosy picture painted for the Democrats' chances of winning in November for granted. Generic ballots signify doodly-squat anyway. The final winners in the 2014 election will be determined on a state-by-state basis, not on mere general statistics.

    Every recent poll shows that the American people have an extremely low opinion of the overall job Congress is doing. However, the voters continue to elect the same old, same old individual candidates from their respective states over and over again, both Democrats and Republicans. For instance, I'm a lifelong resident of Kentucky, and the dumbass voters of this state have returned Senator Mitch McConnell to Capitol Hill for three decades. I rest my case.

    The only chance Democrats have of prevailing in November is if liberal voters get off their asses and vote. Putting forth unrealistic, general predictions regarding the 2014 outcome or bitching about how Congress is doing a shitty job overall is not helpful to our cause in the least. In fact, listening to and taking for granted any postivie news for Democrats in 2014 could be dangerous. Our complacency could be our downfall.

    •  Seriously, this is not complacency (0+ / 0-)

      There are evidences. And agree with other evidences that talk about a tied cycle with a very close pictore to 2012.

      Of course it is necessary to keep the efforts until the end, but I see not a call to do not it in the diary.

      •  I see what you're saying, but... (0+ / 0-)

        I do think that painting a rosier picture for the Democrats' chances of winning in November via generic ballot statistics, instead of discussing the realities of where liberal candidates actually stand in the state-by-state polls, could lull progressive voters into a false sense of security. The electorate in general, and Democratic voters in particular, are notoriously absent from the ballot box in midterm election years. And it doesn't help matters that President Obama is a lame-duck president who's been having a rough time of it lately (to put it mildly), especially in matters relating to foreign policy, and that his approval ratings are low. OF COURSE this diary didn't say the 2014 election is a lock for Democrats, but sometimes people read favorable news and think, "Well, according to a new generic ballot poll, my candidates must be doing just fine, so I really don't have to vote on election day. We've got this one in the bag."

        Sadly, most Americans are low-information voters who are irresponsibly lax in not only educating themselves on the candidates and the issues facing our country, they're rather flippant and apathetic in exercising their most precious right, the right to vote in free and open elections. (Although the Supreme Court's horrible decision on Citizens United DOES tend to make people feel like their votes don't count, and for good reason.) Liberal voters need to know that their candidates, on the state and national levels, are in a race for their lives. If the Republicans manage to gain control of BOTH houses of Congress, they will RUIN this country, and they'll make the first six years of Obama's presidency look like a day at the beach. Thus, it's of the utmost importance for Democrats to vote in November, because America's future depends on the outcome of this election.

        DEMOCRATIC VOTERS: Remember to suit up and show up at the polls on November 4th! It's time to NUT UP or SHUT UP!

  •  Then Why the DOOM! Mongering from Democratic Party (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    postalblue

    If things are going this way for the Republicans in the House, and things are going relatively OK for the Democrats in the Senate, then why the hell do I get so many emails from the Democratic Party asking me for money to avoid Ultimate Doom?

    Last week, I got an email thanking me for my contribution the previous day.

    Two hours later, another email telling me I needed to fork over some more loot or the Republicans were going to take over the country and force parents to buy candy-flavored handguns for their kids for Christmas.

    And then the flood of emails from specific candidates.

    I have a limited income. I had been giving monthly donations to several candidates. I had been contributing more when there were fund-raising matching campaigns that lasted a day or two.

    None of this stopped the Democratic Party from declaring that we were doomed every single day. And on many days, 3 or 4 times.

    I tried contacting them to let them know their behavior was unconstructive, obnoxious, contrary to both the news and the messages from specific candidates

    And also was contradicted by the fact that they have wealthy donors offering matching funds. Surely having multiple email fundraising campaigns where someone is willing to double or triple match individual contributions was a good sign. But no, it was just a "fingernails clinging to the cliff side" effort. An effort that had to be maintained every day.

    There can only be two possible results from these communications.

    First, the Democratic Party is lying to me and using a campaign based on stirring up as much fear as possible regardless of the actual state of the world.

    Second, things are as bad as the Democratic Party says, and I should be saving my money to flee to Canada instead of contributing to their quixotic mission to tilt at the Republican Juggernaut.

    Neither of these is going to shake more money out of me.

    Now emails from their addresses get blocked and treated like spam. Now I have turned off the monthly contributions. They were, in the grand scheme of things, rather meager. But I find that waking up to an email box that doesn't have 8 emails asking me for money every day makes me much happier than dealing with the money-grubbing.

    We are made of starstuff. That, and untold billions of mistakes.

    by bowlweevils on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 03:22:04 PM PDT

    •  Blinders, maybe? (0+ / 0-)

      Maybe they just don't know of any other way to shake people down.  Unfortunately, that just feeds into the "gloom-and-doom Democrats" meme.  Sometimes I think it works at counter-purposes--demoralizing people who want their spirits raised.  

      It's certainly gotten better in my mail feed over the last month or so, for some reason.

      The '60s were simply an attempt to get the 21st Century started early; don't mistake an unfulfilled dream for a lost one. A dream has no deadline!

      by Panurge on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 07:32:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I hope you're right, but... (0+ / 0-)

    I think you've forgotten one major factor-- congressional district lines have been severely gerrymandered in the last 2 years, mainly to the benefit of Republicans.  Many commenters are correctly pointing out that Democratic turnout is a major problem, but honestly, unless a lot of the center-right districts have had an influx of a LOT of liberals moving in, I think your theory is mostly wishful thinking.

    I think we'll narrow the gap a little, but unfortunately, I think we're stuck with a Republican majority until about 2022, when the next census allows another round of redistricting.  I think the gap will get smaller with each election, but it's still going to be tough to overcome.

    The single most effective thing we can do (other than getting a good turnout, of course) is to work to put good people in the STATE legislatures.  That's where the real power is-- they're the ones who redistrict local state district lines, as well as congressional district lines.

    •  That's why it's important... (0+ / 0-)

      ...to vote for your state legislators every Census year--because they ultimately approve the district lines.  Dems have paid a fairly heavy price for being so disappointed that they didn't get everything they wanted in two years.  Hey, we may not get it in twenty years, or fifty, or a hundred, but that's no reason not to vote, and it's no reason not to be involved in your local party.  If these local and state parties are so "sclerotic", as another commenter wrote, why not take them over??

      The '60s were simply an attempt to get the 21st Century started early; don't mistake an unfulfilled dream for a lost one. A dream has no deadline!

      by Panurge on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 07:36:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If you look at 2006 (0+ / 0-)

    It was quite steady up to this point, too, then started rising significantly.  I hope 2014 mimics 2006.

    On the other hand, it seems that people are firmer, more locked into their political preferences than ever, so there may be little change.  The challenge will be to get more liberal groups out to vote.  They tend not to vote on the off years, although there is every reason to vote this year.

  •  OH yea the dems are a head hears is why (0+ / 0-)

    OK Senate races are not like house races they are not gerrymandered they are state wide. SO an avg or above turnout sinks the GOP in those states enough to hold the senate.
    OH yes the media keeps saying the GOP will take it but a 60 % chance is not all that good to take GAIN 6 seats and the polls are biased to the GOP .

    ONE Women are not going to vote GOP much even republican women.
    Second the LGBT community is most likely going to vote 90 % Dem. That is about 20 % of the states population.
    Some ticked of republicans not getting extensions will not vote GOP
    Some more ticked of republicans that are not going to get minimum wage pay raises are not going to vote GOP.
    Minorities are about 70 % or more for the dems.

    Seniors are worried about SS pensions and 65 % are not voting GOP
    SENIORS NOW HATE THE GOP!!!!!!!!!!!
    http://www.dailykos.com/...

    One expert not wrong less then silver has the dems ahead 60 %

    WHO is left to vote for the republicans candidates.

    A synthesizer can create any instrument made and others that have not been created yet.

    by RSGmusic on Tue Sep 02, 2014 at 07:39:42 PM PDT

  •  Let The Record Speak ... (0+ / 0-)

    Okay, we've allowed ourselves to be "absorbed" by one political party or the other ... and that's bad - very bad. Sure, people have always been a bit lop-sided when it came to politics - but today's world is different. So, you might ask, what's so different about it.

    Well - while rich folks have always muscled their way in to politics and swayed legislation, it's never been as horrifically slanted as it now is.  People like the Koch Brothers are out there spending record amounts of $-cash-$ ... overtly and covertly ... getting their people in office.  Here's what you need to know to prevent them letting you have their way.

    The Koch Brothers focus has shifted to state-level elections. Sure, they pump millions of dollars in national elections, but local is where it's at. Why? Simple !!! Once you rule the state houses and governor's office, you simply redistrict (gerrymander) to favor your picks. That's it - that's how the so called Republicans gained control of the House in 2010 ... Democrats actually got many more votes than Republicans, but the district lines were gerrymandered to assure that the people's wishes were ignored.

    That's it - 100% True - So, do you really want the Koch Brothers to run this country? They are - Oh, they also put the Tea Party in place ... and fill those ranks with the likes of Scott Walker - Ted Cruz - and a few other rebels who will assure that our government cannot function as intended.

    So - 2014 will be yet another chance for THE PEOPLE vs. THE KOCH BROTHERS.

    P.S. Did you know that the Koch Brothers father founded and funded the John Birch Society ... that's how those fellows grew up ... it's in their blood ... and no, you do not count.

    P.P.S.S. - - - did you know that the Koch Brothers are valued at around $85 billion ... that's a lot of money when you stop to think that the average American lives for around 2.6 billion seconds.

  •  Where's the Democratic Party? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bard

    I'm a progressive and as always will vote, but I have to admit to wondering why.  These days the Democrats are as much corporatists as the teabagger/Republicans.  They remind me of the union where I used to work; around election time they're everywhere looking for votes and money but in between they sit in their cushy offices and basically refuse to rock the boat as they collect "campaign donations" (aka bribes) from the oligarchs.  

    They should have dumped the super-majority rule in the Senate years ago but Harry Reid and many if not most Democrats won't even try.  We should have seen a massive campaign by now to inform the public that the economy IS improving, that the ACA IS working, that joblessness and the deficit ARE down dramatically, etc, etc, but there's almost nothing.  They're allowing the teabagger/Republicans to get away with massive, blatant, even stupid lies, over and over and over.  Why?  

    If Democrats do well in November it will be sheer dumb luck.

  •  i vote every year (0+ / 0-)

    i am one of the most ardent vote around.  i voted in every midterm and presidential election since i turned 18 in 1988. i missed the 1990 midterm elections.  dont understand why epople only vote in ptesidential election years and pretend midterms dont count.

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