With all the talk about the Halbig decision regarding the PPACA, I created this diary to flesh out the future of the Supreme Court for the next 11 years. Why 11 years?
Presuming a Democratic win in 2016 and subsequent re-election in 2020, that would mean the only chance for a Republican to name another member to the Supreme Court would be starting in January 2025.
I would bet the house that Ginsburg is not going to be on the court until 2020.
That being said, I am guessing that Thomas, Alito and Roberts will be on the court until sometime near the year 2030. (With Thomas possibly ending up in the top 10 longest serving justices of all time) He has been on the court for so long it is somewhat surprising that he is only 2 years older than Alito,as he was relatively young when he was confirmed.
Here is a list of the year of birth for each justice and a limited list of publicly disclosed health issues.
Ginsburg 1933 (With a significant history of cancer)
Sotomayor 1954(Diabetic, even though it seems to be controlled)
Roberts 1955 (Had a bout of seizures, but it does not seem to have re-occurred)
Their approximate ages at the inauguration in 2025.
(Assuming HRC or another Democrat wins in '16 and '20)
Kennedy and Scalia 88
So outside of Ginsburg, and possibly Breyer or Sotomayor(even though it is controlled, diabetics don't tend to live as long as everybody else), who might leave prior to 2025?
It is a coin toss to me if anybody else is going to leave the court prior to 2025.
Could Scalia or Kennedy still be on the court together in 2025?
I would think that Scalia would opt for life support before letting a Democratic President appoint his replacement.
I would say the chances are 70-80% that the current conservative majority will still be on the court in 2025 and a 50-65% chance that the court could be unchanged from its current composition with the exception of Justice Ginsburg.
How much more damage could they do for the next 11 years?