Mitch McConnell: The Moderate Man of the Middle (says he)
Breaking news from The Hill:
With primary season over, the GOP is beginning to inch back to the center.
Well, you'd think that would be true, since political consulting 101* says that after primaries, you always move to the center to capture the moderate persuadable middle. But is that actually what's happening? According to the article:
In Kentucky, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) recently said he could support an increase in the minimum wage if the economy were stronger, while Rep. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) said last week he would vote for the state’s minimum wage ballot measure.
Republican Senate candidates in Colorado, Minnesota, Virginia and Louisiana have all embraced the idea of offering some forms of birth control over the counter, as has House GOP challenger Carl DeMaio in California. Rep. Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), locked in a tight battle with Sen. Mark Udall (D-Colo.), is making it a centerpiece of his Senate campaign and just ran an ad highlighting his position.
If that's their idea of moving to the middle, I'm deathly afraid of what lurching to the right will look like because these so-called moves to the middle aren't what they seem. For example:
- What Mitch McConnell actually said was: "When you have a better economy, raising the minimum wage might make sense [...] but the last thing we want to be doing right now is to be killing jobs." In other words, what McConnell was really doing was offering spin on why he's against raising the minimum wage.
- Tom Cotton did say he would vote for a state measure raising the minimum wage in Arkansas, but he also said that as a Senator, he would oppose raising the minimum wage ... which means that Cotton, like McConnell, is running against raising the minimum wage.
- The candidates talking about over the counter birth control aren't really moving to the left—instead, they are offering a policy which would relieve insurers of the requirement to cover contraception while simultaneously distracting from their party's hardline opposition to safe and legal abortion. Cory Gardner is the poster child for that gambit.
Other examples cited by The Hill include Iowa Senate candidate Joni Ernst saying she'd work with Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand on military sexual assault, something conservatives including Ted Cruz and Rand Paul have already been doing. A pair of Senate candidates running ads saying they support teachers is also cited without mentioning a single moderate policy they now support.
But my favorite example of all is this one:
The messaging shift is taking place at the House level as well, with some Republican House candidates and incumbents, including vulnerable Rep. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.), touting support for the Violence Against Women Act.
I guess if the only thing that matters to you is what politicians say in campaign ads, then you could say that proves the point
The Hill is trying to make ... because Southerland
voted against the Violence Against Women Act—and now he's trying to claim credit for it. A move to the middle, indeed.
*Just because something is political consulting 101 doesn't mean it's strategically wise. In fact, it probably means the exact opposite.