Folks, things are tightening up here:
http://politics.blog.ajc.com/...
Georgia’s race for governor is in a dead heat, while Republican U.S. Senate hopeful David Perdue holds a small lead, according to a new poll of likely voters conducted for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
Gov. Nathan Deal, a Republican, garners 43 percent of likely voters, while Democrat Jason Carter holds 42 percent and Libertarian Andrew Hunt brings in 7 percent, including voters who were leaning toward one candidate.
Perdue notched 45 percent, compared with 41 percent for Democrat Michelle Nunn and 6 percent for Libertarian Amanda Swafford, including leaners.
Among voters who have definitely selected a choice, Deal leads Carter, 42 percent to 40 percent; and Perdue leads Nunn, 44 percent to 38 percent.
The poll’s margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. The statewide poll of 884 likely voters was conducted by New York-based Abt SRBI Inc. Monday through Thursday with live calls to a mix of land-line and cellphones. - Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 9/12/14
You can read the cross tabs here:
http://www.scribd.com/...
Something to note: African-Americans account for 24 percent of the sample, whereas they formed 28% of the electorate in 2010 and 30% in 2012. Democrats are aiming for a 30% African American voter turnout. That's quite a different number than the Insider Advantage (Newt Gingrich's polling firm) poll that came out today:
http://jacksonville.com/...
The governor’s race remains tight, but David Perdue now has a 10-point lead in the U.S. Senate contest, according to a poll released Friday.
Republican incumbent Nathan Deal holds support from 44 percent of the 1,167 likely voters surveyed Wednesday and Thursday by InsiderAdvantage for Morris News Service and Fox5. Democratic challenger Jason Carter has 40 percent of the support, and Libertarian Andrew Hunt has 7 percent while 9 percent remain undecided. The poll has a 3 percent margin of error.
As close as the governor’s race is, the Senate election is widening, to the benefit of GOP nominee Perdue. His 50 percent of the vote could be enough to win without a runoff while Democrat Michelle Nunn has 40 percent and Libertarian Amanda Swafford has just 5 percent. In that race, 5 percent are undecided.
Monday, WXIA-TV released a poll by SurveyUSA showing Deal with 45 percent to Nunn’s 44 and Hunt’s 4. In the Senate matchup, Perdue had 47, Nunn 44 and Swafford 5 percent. It was conducted Sept. 5 of 558 likely voters with a 4 percent margin of error. - The Florida Times-Union, 9/12/14
It's clear this race is tightening up and things look very promising for Nunn and Carter. Another key factor to winning this race is wooing over rural voters:
http://thehill.com/...
While Kentucky’s electorate is more rural than Georgia on a percentage basis, the Peach State has many more rural voters based on population. Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn is trying to run as a centrist in the mold of her father, Sam, whose long career in the Senate ran from 1972 to 1996.
While Democrats point to the growing numbers of African-American and Latino voters as a sign of the state's purple-trending demographics, the fact is that a significant infusion of rural voters in central and south Georgia will have to cast a ballot for Nunn if she is to defeat businessman David Perdue for the seat held by outgoing Republican Sen. Saxby Chambliss.
Keith McCants of tiny Oglethorpe, Ga. is perhaps his state's most knowledgeable expert on rural politics, and he has a lot to say about what Nunn needs to do to be competitive over the final weeks in the rural counties.
McCants, who runs the respected Peanut Politics blog, said Nunn has two tasks in wooing rural voters. First, she must motivate "Obamacrats," the rural black voters in the 1st, 2nd and 8th Congressional Districts who don't come out to midterm elections like they do when Obama's name is on the ballot. Second, McCants says Nunn needs independents and voters 55 and older to break her way. "Everyone assumes if you're white and rural, you're a Republican," he laments.
McCants said he winced when Nunn's campaign memo leaked out early this year, because the policy areas of agriculture, trade, infrastructure and rural issues were ranked at the very bottom of Nunn's list. "She needs to talk about issues that resonate with rural areas," McCants said, adding that Nunn should speak of her Methodist faith much more. "That's something Democrats haven't done a lot."
"Nunn and Democrats in general have to over-perform in voter registration and expand the voting base in order to win in November. She is going to have to invest time outside of her big county strategy and into smaller counties such as Crisp, Tift, Ben Hill, Laurens, Tattnall, Troup counties, for example, in order to compensate for a low-expected turnout," said McCants.
"While some of these voters from these areas that have been hit hard by job losses and closing of factories may not choose [Republican nominee] David Perdue because of his role with Pillowtex and his image as a country club, elitist Republican, they will need to be persuaded to turn out and turnout for her."
As for Nunn's field operation, McCants notes places like Tifton and Waycross have no organizers while "Perdue has a ground game [in the rural counties] and its going strong."
McCants, who works at the schoolbus maker Blue Bird Corp. in Fort Valley, Ga., says Nunn must continue to make use of her father and have other surrogates be more of a presence on the campaign trail.
"Former Congressman Jim Marshall [D] would be an asset for her and could be helpful with farmers and veterans," McCants says, as well as ex-Gov. and Sen. Zell Miller (D), who cut a television spot for Nunn. "But I'm not seeing that ad run down here in south Georgia." - The Hill, 9/12/14
Nunn not only has the chance to win over rural voters along with African American and latino voters, she's working hard to get female voters out to the polls. She recently released this ad attacking Perdue on equal pay:
http://time.com/...
Federal investigators for the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission found that female store managers at Perdue’s Dollar General “were discriminated against” and “generally were paid less” than males under his tenure, according to a Mother Jones story confirmed by Georgia PolitiFact. Dollar General paid a settlement of almost $19 million to 2,100 female employees for not paying them equal wages.
Democrats nationally and in races like Georgia’s have pushed the idea that Republicans are not for equal pay and have spoken of the GOP waging a “war against women” on reproductive and economic policy. It has proven an effective message with female voters. Democrats lost the women’s vote in 2010, and with it control of the House and six Senate seats. Determined not to make the same mistake, they introduced a women’s economic agenda, including the Paycheck Fairness Act, which has been voted down twice in the Senate by Republicans this year. Republicans argue the bill is a sop to trial lawyers and have introduced their own version, which incentivizes employers to provide equal pay, rather than punishing them on the regulatory side, as the Democrats favor.
Nunn is trailing Perdue slightly—by 1.6 percentage points— in polls, according to an average of Georgia polls by Real Clear Politics. But she’s beating him amongst women, 45% to 33% in a recent CBS/New York Times survey. In order to win, she’ll need to maintain that edge and build on it. Thus the ads hitting Perdue as bad for women. - Time Magazine, 9/12/14
The news this past week shows Georgia Republicans are afraid of early voting and big voter turnouts amongst African American voters. Nunn and Carter still need to win over the rural voters but Nunn is doing an excellent job framing the narrative against Perdue. We can win both these races, we just have to get folks out to the polls. Click here to donate and get involved with Nunn and Carter's campaigns:
http://www.michellenunn.com/
https://carterforgovernor.com/