Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH)
Since we're already in the middle of September of an election year, the valve on the polling fire hose is really starting to open up. Here's what Monday brought us on the Senate front:
• AK-Sen: Harstad Research (D): Mark Begich (D-inc): 45, Dan Sullivan (R): 40, Mark Fish (Lib): 6 (Aug.: 41-40 Begich) (conducted for Senate Majority PAC and Put Alaska First).
• AR-Sen: Gravis Marketing (R): Tom Cotton (R): 47, Mark Pryor (D-inc): 43 (July: 51-44 Cotton) (among registered voters).
• GA-Sen: Landmark Communications (R): Michelle Nunn (D): 46, David Perdue (R): 43, Amanda Swafford (Lib): 6 (Aug.: 47-40 Nunn).
• IL-Sen: APC Research: Dick Durbin (D-inc): 55, Jim Oberweis (R): 32, Sharon Hansen (Lib): 5 (among registered voters).
• MN-Sen: Mason-Dixon: Al Franken (D-inc): 49, Mike McFadden (R): 36
• NC-Sen: American Insights (R): Kay Hagan (D-inc): 43, Thom Tillis (R): 34, Sean Haugh (Lib): 5 (Feb.: 38-35 Hagan).
• NC-Sen: Elon University: Hagan 45, Tillis 41 (43-37 Hagan among registered voters).
• NH-Sen: CNN/ORC: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 48, Scott Brown (R): 48 (51-44 Shaheen among registered voters).
• NH-Sen: Kiley & Company (D): Shaheen: 51, Brown: 43 (Early Sept.: 51-43) (conducted for the DSCC).
• NH-Sen: Magellan Strategies (R): Brown: 46, Shaheen: 44 (July: 46-41 Shaheen) (conducted for Citizens for a Strong New Hampshire).
• NH-Sen: Rasmussen: Shaheen: 48, Brown: 42 (March: Shaheen 50, Brown 41).
New Hampshire's all over the place, with numbers from CNN and Magellan that will excite Republicans, while others—the DSCC's responsive poll from Kiley, and, amusingly, Rasmussen—continue to show a solid lead for Jeanne Shaheen. It'll be interesting to see how the
Daily Kos Elections Poll Explorer adjusts its expectations after all these polls are inputted. Right now, it gives Shaheen an 85 percent chance at victory; check in first thing Tuesday morning to see how the new data changes things.
North Carolina, meanwhile, continues to look good for Kay Hagan, though that American Insights poll is far too optimistic (a recently released Democratic internal had Hagan up 3). On the flipside, Georgia keeps looking tougher for Michelle Nunn. Landmark, though a Republican pollster, was the only firm consistently finding her in the lead, but even they see the race tightening now.
Those Alaska results, on the other hand, are pretty positive for Mark Begich, particularly in light of Harstad's previously unreleased trendlines showing that Dan Sullivan earned a post-primary bounce that turned the contest into a 1-point race. Nate Silver, however, offers a note of caution, pointing out that Alaska polling has over-estimated Democratic performance in every statewide race since 2000, by an average of 7 points:
That's a pretty rough track record for all pollsters combined, and it also has implications for the state's gubernatorial race this year, which is also shaping up to be competitive. But as is always the case with poll aggregation, a lot of bad data can drown out the good, as we saw in Harry Reid's famous re-election campaign in 2010. The problem is we have no way of knowing right now who, if anyone, is on the mark.