Apparently, last week everyone in New Hampshire was polled about Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D).
The caption to the photo above of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, of course, is meant to be snarky. But it isn't terribly far displaced from reality.
Apparently, as we learned on Monday, no less than four pollsters were in the field in smallish New Hampshire ... at the same time. Now, in fairness, multiple polls in the field at once is not terribly unusual. Around Halloween, or so. But in mid-September? That is incredibly odd, but it underscores the media adoration of the GOP challenger, and also the tenuous nature of the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate. And that might explain why everyone is suddenly taking the temperature of the New Hampshire Senate race.
To peruse all of the data since the last edition of the Wrap (spanning dates from Sep 12-15), as well as a look at what the small boomlet of polls in the Granite State tells us, head below the fold and check out the 41 different polls that made the cut.
AK-Sen (Harstad Research—D): Sen. Mark Begich (D) 45, Dan Sullivan (R) 40
AR-Sen (Answers Unlimited—D): Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 46, Tom Cotton (R) 42
AR-Sen (Gravis—R): Tom Cotton (R) 47, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 43
DE-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Chris Coons (D) 49, Kevin Wade (R) 34
GA-Sen (Abt SRBI): David Perdue (R) 45, Michelle Nunn (R) 41
GA-Sen (Insider Advantage): David Perdue (R) 50, Michelle Nunn (D) 40
GA-Sen (Landmark Communications—R): Michelle Nunn (R) 46, David Perdue (D) 43
HI-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Brian Schatz (D) 60, Cam Cavasso (R) 28
IA-Sen (CNN/ORC): Bruce Braley (D) 49, Joni Ernst (R) 48
IL-Sen (APC Research): Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 55, Jim Oberweis (R) 32
LA-Sen (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner—D): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 48, Bill Cassidy (R) 46
LA-Sen Blanket Primary (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner—D): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 47, Bill Cassidy (R) 32, Rob Maness (R) 13
MI-Sen (Mitchell Research): Gary Peters (D) 43, Terri Land (R) 41
MN-Sen (Mason Dixon): Sen. Al Franken (D) 49, Mike McFadden (R) 36
NC-Sen (American Insights—R): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 43, Thom Tillis (R) 34
NC-Sen (Elon University): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 45, Thom Tillis (R) 41
NH-Sen (CNN/ORC): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48, Scott Brown (R) 48
NH-Sen (Kiley and Company—D): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (R) 51, Scott Brown (D) 43
NH-Sen (Magellan Strategies—R): Scott Brown (R) 46, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 44
NH-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 48, Scott Brown (R) 42
NM-Sen (Research and Polling Inc.): Sen. Tom Udall (D) 51, Allen Weh (R) 38
AR-Gov (Answers Unlimited—D): Asa Hutchinson (R) 44, Mike Ross (D) 44
AR-Gov (Gravis—R): Asa Hutchinson (R) 46, Mike Ross (D) 43
CA-Gov (The Los Angeles Times): Gov. Jerry Brown (D) 57, Neel Kashkari (R) 36
FL-Gov (Rasmussen): Charlie Crist (D) 42, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 40
GA-Gov (Abt SRBI): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 43, Jason Carter (D) 42
GA-Gov (Insider Advantage): Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 44, Jason Carter (D) 40
GA-Gov (Landmark Communications—R): Jason Carter (D) 47, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) 44
HI-Gov (Rasmussen): David Ige (D) 40, Duke Aiona (R) 39, Mifu Hannemann (I) 14
IL-Gov (APC Research): Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 48, Bruce Rauner (R) 37
KS-Gov (YouGov): Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 47, Paul Davis (D) 40
ME-Gov (PPP—D): Mike Michaud (D) 43, Gov. Paul LePage (R) 42, Eliot Cutler (I) 11
MI-Gov (Mitchell Research): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 46, Mark Schauer (D) 41
MN-Gov (Mason Dixon): Gov. Mark Dayton (D) 45, Jeff Johnson (R) 33
NM-Gov (Research and Polling Inc.): Gov. Susana Martinez (R) 54, Gary King (D) 36
OH-Gov (Columbus Dispatch): Gov. John Kasich (R) 59, Ed FitzGerald (D) 29
RI-Gov (Public Opinion Strategies—R): Allan Fung (R) 42, Gina Raimondo (D) 42
FL-26 (McLaughlin and Associates—R): Carlos Curbelo (R) 44, Rep. Joe Garcia (D) 40
NJ-03 (GBA Strategies—D): Tom MacArthur (R) 46, Aimee Belgard (D) 43
NJ-03 (Stockton Polling Institute): Aimee Belgard (D) 42, Tom MacArthur (R) 42
NY-19 (Siena College): Rep. Chris Gibson (R) 57, Sean Eldridge (D) 33
Above, you can see that despite the fact that the quartet of pollsters who just took the pulse of the New Hampshire Senate race were in the field at roughly the same time, they came up with wildly disparate views on the state of play in the Granite State. Two of the pollsters (Kiley and Company, polling on behalf of the DSCC, as well as Rasmussen Reports) had incumbent Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen with what could best be described as a modest lead over Republican challenger Scott Brown (6-8 points). On the other end of the spectrum were CNN/ORC and GOP pollsters Magellan, who had the race either deadlocked, or narrowly edging to Brown.
Based on a couple of stats in their polling memo (Shaheen leading, albeit barely, among Independents and Brown at just 79% of Republicans), it is safe to say that Magellan sees a fairly heavy Republican electorate in New Hampshire. That's not impossible: in 2010, which was a bloodletting for New Hampshire Democrats, the electorate was Republican +3. Magellan, which either had a complete sampling coincidence or weights by partisan ID, is forecasting a GOP +5 electorate in 2014. If they're right, Shaheen would have to be VERY nervous. CNN also, it would seem, is projecting an electorate that leans GOP. The evidence there is the yawning gap (seven points!) between how Shaheen performs among registered voters, and how she performs among likely voters. It is not impossible to foresee an electorate more hostile to New Hampshire Democrats than even 2010 was, but it is at least a little difficult to fathom, given the relative lack of evidence that 2014 is another 2010.
That said, it would probably be a serious mistake for Democrats to just dismiss those polls on their face and discount Brown's chances here. The race has indisputably tightened. In the six polls conducted on this race in June and July, Sen. Shaheen had an average lead of 9.5 points. Since then, that margin has been whittled down to 4.4 points in the ten polls conducted over the past six weeks.
It's early, but from where I sit, two statements about the New Hampshire Senate race "feel" like they have the ring of truth: (1) Scott Brown is not tied, nor is he leading this race; (2) It is nevertheless considerably closer to that status than it has been in months.
And that is critical to Republican chances. I suspect the reason New Hampshire has received so much attention (beside the media adulation of Scott Brown, which has been a consistent theme in the public conversation for four years) is because the overall state of Senate play has incrementally changed over the past several weeks, to the detriment of the GOP.
Recent poll releases out of North Carolina confirm what has long been whispered: that despite her early woes, Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan now has a clear, if narrow, lead over Republican Thom Tillis. Also, as James Hohmann of Politico reported over the weekend, even Republicans are now conceding that they are less bullish on the open seat in Iowa than they were before.
The Republican calculus to six seats has always included the perilous Democratic open seats of Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. But that only gets them halfway home. After that, the trio of Democratic incumbents seen as the next tier of vulnerability are Mary Landrieu (Louisiana), Mark Begich (Alaska), and Mark Pryor (Arkansas). Hagan used to be in that tier, as well, but recent data makes it hard to justify her inclusion there.
The problem for Republicans is that it is not impossible to see one of those three surviving. And for the Democrats, it only takes one. Therefore, the playing field needs to expand out to new targets, just in case one of those three Democrats (all of whom have some experience winning tough races) manages to defy expectations. And if their prospects are really flagging in North Carolina and Iowa (and Michigan, despite that Mitchell poll, doesn't seem like a superior prospect, either), they need a Plan B.
It is becoming increasingly clear that Scott Brown may well be their Plan B. And as we learned in 2012, sometimes "expanding the playing field" (*cough*, Romney in Pennsylvania!) is about something other than trying to run up the score.