I made a batch of previous race ratings about a month and a half ago. While the landscape has not changed drastically, there have been some major shifts. In this diary, I will briefly recap my race ratings. I will also discuss every rating I have moved since August.
Some things to note:
Tilt = 60% chance of victory
Lean = 75% chance of victory
Likely = 95% chance of victory
Internals show modest lead = Tossup or Tilt
Both parties involved = Tossup, Tilt, or Lean
One party involved = Likely, unless incumbent down big (like PA) or one candidate doesn't need the help
Public polling shows consistent lead = Tilt or Lean
I place very little stock in public House polling.
Senate:
West Virginia: Likely R to Safe R
New Mexico: Likely D to Safe D
Time has just about run out on Natalie Tennant and Allen Weh. Both are decent candidates, but the polling averages have consistently shown double-digit deficits, and there appears to be no momentum for either candidate. It's time to give up on both of these underdogs. In the next update, I'd be shocked if Oregon isn't Safe D as well, but I'm keeping it barely in Likely D territory for now.
New Hampshire: Likely D to Lean D
Polling has surprised me. While I'm still quite confused as to why New Hampshire voters would vote for this man when if he were a Democrat I'd have a tough time pulling the trigger, it appears they're warming to him. Shaheen still appears to have a lead, but this is a real battle and could possibly move to Tilt D by the end of the month if things keep going Brown's way. I give Brown better odds than Gardner right now.
Kansas: Safe R to Tilt R
Even more of a surprise is the Kansas Senate election, where Pat Roberts may well lose. While right now Independent Greg Orman leads Roberts in polls, I'm going to keep it narrowly favoring Roberts until a couple weeks have gone by and there is clear evidence that negative ads on Orman won't sink him (Roberts' negatives appear baked in at this point, while Orman is benefiting from his nonpartisan image and the fact that he's hardly been challenged). Not to mention that Orman could well face the same fate Lincoln Chafee or Scott Brown have in recent years: popular, but not popular enough to overcome the state's lean.
Arkansas: Pure Tossup to Tilt R
Polling in Arkansas is still sparse, but Democratic internals show a Pryor lead. Clearly internals are to be taken with a grain of salt, but when the incumbent is over 45 and up in an internal, it's probably not leaning to the other party. But Democratic fortunes appear to have slid a bit in Arkansas in the past couple months, and so I give Cotton a slight edge here.
Alaska: Lean D to Pure Tossup
My big screw-up last diary was giving Begich such a strong advantage. I was under the impression Alaskan undecideds tended to break towards incumbents, but there really isn't evidence for that. So I'm moving this race to a knife's-edge tossup status, a status I only allow 1 Senate and 1 Gubernatorial race to hold. Begich could easily win with a total in the high 40s, which helps him. But Sullivan's pretty strong, recent media coverage hasn't been great, and it's an R-tilting year in a red state. So we'll see...
Iowa: Lean D to Tilt D
I still refuse to believe Joni Ernst can win in Iowa in a year like this, but the polling is not great for Bruce Braley. I do believe he'll win over enough undecideds to squeak by, but this isn't a Lean D race anymore.
Senate Ratings (by likelihood of Dem win):
Likely D: OR, MN, MI
Lean D: CO, NH
Tilt D: IA, NC
Tossup: AK
Tilt R: AR, KS
Lean R: LA, GA, KY
Likely R: SD (plus two Safe R flips in MT and WV)
I currently project either a 50-50 or 49-51 Senate. It's gonna be close...
Governor:
While the Senate races have mostly gone poorly for Democrats in the past month, the Governor ones have mostly improved. Let's start with the changes again.
Maryland: Safe D to Likely D
Nebraska: Safe R to Likely R
When a party committee starts to advertise, it means they don't believe the race is safe. So I'm moving both these longshot races one notch closer to tossup.
Iowa: Likely R to Safe R
South Carolina: Likely R to Safe R
Ohio: Likely R to Safe R
I no longer see a path to victory for Democrats in any of these.
Alaska: Safe R to Lean R
A Democratic dropout here moves this race to the place it would be in a more purple state. Bill Walker's fighting an uphill battle, but he's got a decent chance.
Arizona: Lean R
I previously hadn't rated this race, as I was waiting to see who won the primary. Given Doug Ducey's Generic R characteristics, Lean R seems like a fair place to put the race right now.
Illinois: Lean R to Tilt R
I still think Pat Quinn will lose, but this has been a bad month for Bruce Rauner. Quinn has found some fertile ground for attacks in Rauner's business record and views on the minimum wage, and a Democratic internal (and a bizarre public poll) show him ahead. I don't think he is, but this race will be closer than I previously thought.
Wisconsin: Lean R to Pure Tossup
This is gonna be one fun November. Lots of close races in large states. And none is more surprising to me than the race to defeat Scott Walker. Polling now shows that this race has truly shifted and is a Tossup.
Connecticut: Lean D to Tilt D
My rating was probably wrong last time around. Foley did lose to Malloy in 2010, so I find it tough to see him winning in 2014. But polling does show him ahead.
Kansas: Pure Tossup to Tilt D
Brownback's been trailing in everything but YouGov. More importantly, his own internal only showed him up one point. He may not lose in November, but he's losing right now.
Governor Ratings (by likelihood of Dem win):
Likely D: MD, MN, MA, ME (plus PA which is safe)
Lean D: FL (I know polling doesn't reflect it)
Tilt D: KS, CO, CT
Pure Tossup: WI
Tilt R: MI, IL, AR
Lean R: AK, GA, AZ
Likely R: NE
House Ratings:
I don't do Likely ratings for the House.
MT-AL: Lean R to Safe R
NV-3: Lean R to Safe R
MI-8: Lean R to Safe R
IA-4: Lean R to Safe R
These races are more examples of Democrats just running out of time. They're over.
NY-24: Safe D to Lean D
IL-12: Safe D to Lean D
The parties are spending here, which means these are real races.
MN-8: Lean D to Tilt D. Rick Nolan let slip that the polls basically show a Tossup. I'll give him the incumbency edge but that's it.
IL-13: Tilt R to Lean R. The buzz on this race isn't going Democrats' way.
NJ-3: Tilt R to Lean R. See above.
MA-6: Tilt D to Lean D. Tierney lost his primary, which makes this a tough race for Republicans.
NH-1: Tilt D to Tilt R.
FL-25: Tilt D to Tilt R.
Rumors, internals, and the climate have made me project both these races as narrow Republican gains.
House Ratings:
Lean D: AZ-1, NY-24, CA-7, CA-26, NY-11 (inc loss), NH-2, ME-2, GA-12, IL-10, IL-12, NY-18, MA-6
Tilt D: MN-8, CO-6 (inc loss)
Pure Tossup: WV-3, IA-3
Tilt R: AZ-2 (inc loss), NH-1 (inc loss), NE-2, FL-2, VA-10, NY-1 (inc loss), FL-25 (inc loss)
Lean R: WI-6, CA-52 (inc loss), MN-2, NY-21, NY-23, MI-1, MI-7, WV-2, NJ-3, IL-13