Leading Off:
• IL-Gov: One of the nastiest races in America just got a little nastier. Republican Bruce Rauner hits Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn for allegedly ordering the secret release of 230 violent criminals. The narrator describes some of the heinous acts they committed after getting out of prison, including murder.
This is not the type of ad you usually run if you're comfortable with your lead in the polls. As Taniel points out, Rauner's edge appears to have slipped in recent weeks. From June to August, non-internal polls gave Rauner an average lead of 9.2 percent: His September average was 1.25.
It's unclear if Rauner's summer lead was inflated by Republican-leaning pollsters like We Ask America flooding the zone or if Quinn has made up real ground (or if the answer is a mix of both). Ads like this can do real damage to their intended target but they could backfire if the Rauner campaign doesn't have its facts straight or if the family of a victim complains. We'll see what happens next here, but it's very unlikely that voters will ignore this ad.
Senate:
• AK-Sen: Put Alaska First once again hits Republican Dan Sullivan for wanting the government to seize private lands: The size of the buy is $459,000. On the GOP side, Alaska's Energy, America's Values is spending $285,000, while the NRSC is throwing down $112,000.
• AR-Sen: The NRSC again calls Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor a Washington insider. Crossroads GPS is also spending $191,000 against Pryor.
• CO-Sen: Senate Majority PAC hits Republican Rep. Cory Gardner on Medicare. The DSCC also hits Gardner on birth control and abortion.
• IA-Sen: Senate Majority PAC hits Republican Joni Ernst on Social Security privatization.
• KY-Sen: Democrat Alison Grimes portrays Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell as an absentee senator.
• NC-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters spends $616,000 for Democrat Kay Hagan.
• NH-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spends about $1 million against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen: They recently ran this ad against her.
• OR-Sen: New spots from both Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkely and Republican Monica Werby.
• SD-Sen: Republican Mike Rounds spends a minute portraying himself as a bland conservative, while decrying the negative ads being run against him. Democrat Rick Weiland also is on the air, talking about defending Medicare and Social Security.
• WV-Sen: Republican Shelley Moore Capito goes positive, highlighting her work helping a constituent.
• John Bolton SuperPAC: Apparently, this exists. Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton is helping the Republicans in Senate contests in Arkansas, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. The first two buys are about $270,000 each, while Bolton is spending $355,000 in North Carolina.
• NextGen Climate: Various expenditures in favor of Team Blue.
• NRA: The National Rifle Association has new spots hitting Democrats in Senate contests in Georgia, Iowa, and West Virginia. We also have various expenditures here.
• Senate Majority PAC: Various expenditures on the Democratic side (here and here).
Gubernatorial:
• CO-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper again uses his background running a restaurant as a metaphor for his style as governor.
• CT-Gov: Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy hits Republican Tom Foley for opposing incentives that kept jobs in the state. Foley goes positive on education.
• FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist has another Spanish-language spot narrated by his running mate Annette Taddeo.
• MA-Gov: CommonWealth Future PAC portrays Democrat Martha Coakley as out-of-touch.
• ME-Gov: The RGA again accuses Democrat Mike Michaud of trying to turn Maine into a haven for undocumented immigrants, while praising Republican Gov. Paul LePage for welfare reform.
• MN-Gov: Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton uses hockey as a metaphor for his record.
• TX-Gov: Republican Greg Abbott goes negative on Democrat Wendy Davis for going negative on him.
• WI-Gov: EMILY's List reserves $1.2 million in TV time for early October in support of Democrat Mary Burke. Greater Wisconsin also goes after Republican Gov. Scott Walker on school funding.
House:
• AZ-01: Republican Andy Tobin stresses his accomplishments as speaker of the Arizona House.
• CA-31: Democrat Pete Aguilar continues to go positive, while the DCCC again hits Republican Paul Chabot.
• CA-36: Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz speaks to the camera in a Spanish-language spot.
• CA-52: The DCCC spends $120,000 against Republican Carl DeMaio.
• IA-03: Democrat Staci Appel defends herself against GOP attempts to portray her as weak on terrorism.
• IL-12: The NRCC hits Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart on congressional perks and Obamacare, while portraying Republican Mike Bost as different.
• IN-02: Republican Rep. Jackie Walorski.
• LA-05: Republican Rep. Vance McAllister is out with his first spot, featuring his wife Kelly. The two of course don't directly mention the recent scandal where the congressman was caught on camera making out with another woman, but Kelly alludes to it when she declares she's blessed to have a husband who owns up to his mistakes.
• LA-06: Republican state Rep. Lenar Whitney, one of the many Republicans competing in the November jungle primary, is out with her first spot. I have to say, for someone who calls herself the "Sarah Palin of the South," I was expecting something a lot more interesting.
• MI-01: The NRCC goes after Democrat Jerry Cannon on Obamacare.
• MN-08: The DCCC continues to depict Republican Stewart Mills as a greedy rich guy.
• NJ-03: The DCCC continues to paint Republican Tom MacArthur as an immoral businessman, this time accusing him of profiting from a company that declined insurance claims from injured firefighters.
• NY-11: When the DCCC first began running ads against indicted Republican Rep. Michael Grimm, we wondered if they were just trying to finish him off early or if they found a close race here. With two new polls showing Grimm still very much in the fight, it looks like we can choose door number two here. The group's newest spot goes right at Grimm's ethics, which comes as no surprise.
National Republicans haven't begun advertising in this expensive district and it remains to be seen if they really want to spend big to bail Grimm out of trouble. At least one group is shelling out some money to help Grimm though: The ironically-named Defending Main Street SuperPAC is spending $100,000 here.
• PA-08: Americans for Responsible Solutions recently ran a spot for Republican Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, and we learn that it was for $374,000.
• TX-23: The NRCC hits Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego on energy jobs.
• WV-02: Until now Democrat Nick Casey has been all positive, but this time he goes after Republican Alex Mooney's most obvious vulnerability. The spot reminds voters that Mooney lived in Maryland until he decided to run for office in West Virginia, and hits him on coal too for good measure.
• WV-03: House Majority PAC hits Republican Evan Jenkins in Medicare.
• House: Various expenditures from the DCCC and NRCC.