Republican Carlos Curbelo
Leading Off:
• FL-26: Well, this is a fortunate break for Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia: Republican Carlos Curbelo was caught on video taking a page from the Rick Perry playbook. The footage, shot by a tracker, shows Curbelo declaring Social Security and Medicare to both be a "Ponzi scheme," which is pretty much like insulting Florida's momma to her face. The 26th District is not Florida's oldest—about 14 percent of the population is 65 or older—but it's older than the national average, and the preservation of entitlement programs has always had a special resonance in the Sunshine State.
Senate:
• Polling: If it's a Monday any time after Labor Day, you know that means there will be a whole bunch of polling. All polls below are of likely voters, expect where noted:
• AR-Sen: Hickman Analytics (D): Mark Pryor (D-inc): 46, Tom Cotton (R): 43 (early Sept.: 45-43 Pryor) (poll conducted for the DSCC).
• CO-Sen: Gravis Marketing: Cory Gardner (R): 46, Mark Udall (D-inc): 39 (July: 47-43 Gardner).
• KY-Sen: Ipsos: Mitch McConnell (R-inc): 46, Alison Grimes (D): 42 (38-36 Grimes among registered voters).
• MI-Sen: Magellan (R): Gary Peters (D): 45, Terri Lynn Land (R): 40 (June: 50-41 Peters).
• MI-Sen: PPP (D): Peters: 47, Land: 40 (early Sept.: 43-36 Peters) (conducted for the League of Conservation Voters).
• MI-Sen: We Ask America: Peters (D): 42, Land (R): 39
• NC-Sen: High Point University: Kay Hagan (D-inc): 42, Thom Tillis (R): 40, Sean Haugh (Lib): 7
• NH-Sen: PPP (D): Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 50, Scott Brown (R): 44 (Aug.: 50-44 Shaheen).
Ipsos, which polls entirely on the Internet, offers yet another example of a big gulf between likely and registered voters. On the one hand, it seems strange that just 944 people out of 1,755 registered voters who were willing to sit through an entire poll are "likely" vote in November (though maybe it's less difficult to get people to finish a survey when it's conducted online). On the other hand, the fact that Grimes can only manage 38 percent among RVs is not a good sign for her.
Gubernatorial:
• FL-Gov: Of the $50 million spent on TV ads in Florida's gubernatorial race to date, 71 percent—or over $35 million—has benefitted Republican Gov. Rick Scott. Despite that, the race is a total tossup. What's more, Democrat Charlie Crist has finally just about equalized the cash-on-hand situation, with $9.4 million of his own to $10.4 million for Scott. Of course, Scott can still keep tapping his enormous personal wealth, but he's long since reached the point of diminishing returns.
• KS-Gov: Blargh. Over the weekend, the Coffeyville Journal, a tiny local newspaper that doesn't even have a website, revealed that Democrat Paul Davis was at a strip club receiving a lap dance when police raided the club on a drug bust. The incident took place back in 1998, when Davis, who was not charged with any wrongdoing, was 26 years old. The club's owner, who was charged with distributing meth, was a client of Davis' law firm; Davis says his boss brought him there.
On the one hand, it's incredibly stupid that this kind of incident is even part of our political discourse. Young single guy happens to be at strip club during drug raid—why is that even a story? The fact that we're talking about it, though, is a legacy of the criminalization of personal behavior that began with Gary Hart, as Matt Bai's very worthwhile new piece disturbingly illuminates.
On the other hand, Paul Davis knows the unfortunate reality we're operating in, and he should have released this to the media a year ago, on his own terms. I can understand why he didn't—he was probably worried about doing anything that might have made the race about himself rather than Brownback, and undermined his credibility as a legitimate contender. But this story would likely have faded quickly. Instead, it's come out with just six weeks to Election Day, and because the press learned this via police reports rather than from Davis himself, it looks like he wanted to hide it.
Sadly, people running for office don't get to hide matters like this anymore. But politics is no place for normative judgments. Candidates can only deal with what is, not what should be. So if Davis has anything else left in the closet that could provide fodder for partisan attack dogs, he should share it now, rather than let someone else share it for him.
• ME-Gov: FLOTUS Alert! Michelle Obama is heading up to Maine to headline a rally for Democratic Rep. Mike Michaud on Oct. 3. It's not clear if a fundraiser is also planned, though often big-name surrogates whose last names are Obama, Biden, or Clinton squeeze in both types of events when they hit the campaign trail.
• PA-Gov: Democrat Tom Wolf doesn't just have a big lead in the polls over Republican Gov. Tom Corbett. He also has a big lead in fundraising, too: Wolf has $6.5 million left for the stretch run while Corbett, who's campaign is as near to death as they come, has just $4.8 million. Even more remarkably, Corbett outspent Wolf $8 million to $6.2 million in the three months prior to Sept. 15 but still couldn't budge his poll numbers an inch.
• Polling: And of course, there are a bunch of gubernatorial polls as well. Again, all polls are of likely voters unless otherwise indicated:
• CO-Gov: Gravis Marketing (R): Bob Beauprez (R): 48, John Hickenlooper (D-inc): 43 (July: 49-43 Hickenlooper)
• HI-Gov: Merriman River: David Ige (D): 43, Duke Aiona (R): 39, Mufi Hannemann (I): 8 (June: 31-31-17).
• IA-Gov: Rasmussen: Terry Branstad (R-inc): 46, Jack Hatch (D): 40 (Aug.: 52-35 Branstad).
• IL-Gov: We Ask America (R): Bruce Rauner (R): 44, Pat Quinn (D-inc): 41 (early Sept.: 46-37 Rauner).
• KS-Gov: Rasmussen: Paul Davis (D): 47, Sam Brownback (R-inc): 43 (July: 51-41 Davis).
• MA-Gov: Rasmussen: Martha Coakley (D): 42, Charlie Baker (R): 42.
• ME-Gov: FrederickPolls (D): Mike Michaud (D): 35, Paul LePage (R-inc): 35, Eliot Cutler (I): 19 (conducted for Cutler).
• MI-Gov: PPP (D): Rick Snyder (R-inc): 46, Mark Schauer (D): 44 (early Sept.: 43-42 Snyder) (conducted for the League of Conservation Voters).
• MI-Gov: We Ask America: Snyder: 43, Schauer: 43.
• PA-Gov: Muhlenberg College: Tom Wolf (D): 54, Tom Corbett (R-inc): 33
FrederickPolls is actually a Democratic pollster, best known for their work in Florida's 18th District, where they nailed the nail-biter between Patrick Murphy and Allen West two years ago. But here, they're polling for independent Eliot Cutler, who still trails far behind the two leaders. Cutler's trying to claim that his own polling from the same point in the campaign in 2010—when he went on to finish a close second to LePage—showed him in a similar position. But overall, he's been
trending downward very sharply, and in any event, second bids by independent candidates rarely outdo first attempts. (Think Ross Perot in 1996 versus 1992.)
Meanwhile, in Hawaii, David Ige seems to be benefitting from the collapse of another third-party candidate, former Democrat Mufi Hannemann. The RGA has been trying to take advantage of Hannemann's attempt to split the vote, but if he keeps fading, then this opportunity—never particularly good to begin with—will slip through the GOP's fingers.
House:
• IA-03: Has a candidate for public office ever canceled TV ads but gone on to win anyway? We've actually found a few examples (Jim Renacci, Jeff Flake, Allan Fung), but it certainly doesn't seem like something you can interpret as a positive development for Republican David Young. Young is seeking Iowa's open, swingy 3rd District against Democrat Staci Appel, but he dropped his ad flight over the last week on two Des Moines television stations.
Young's campaign tried to wave off the cancellation, pointing out the NRCC is still spending heavily on his behalf (with $1.5 million reserved over the final two months). The problem with that, though, is that the DCCC is also working hard for Appel, who had an enormous cash-on-hand advantage as of June 30, $725,000 to just $90,000 for Young. Then again, Young's ads have been noteworthy for their weirdness, so perhaps he's better off going dark.
• NC-02: Ben Terris' profile of Democrat Clay Aiken doesn't contain too many newsy nuggets, but it's nevertheless a very interesting read that'll give you a feel for the kind of campaign Aiken is running and the challenges he faces. One of Aiken's biggest difficulties, according to a consultant, is that he's struggled to raise money because folks in the district "assume he has these big Hollywood connections so they don't want to donate." However, says the consultant, "the truth is he isn't that big a deal in Hollywood, so he can't raise that much there." Another fundraiser adds that Aiken would agree that "it's been a lot more difficult than I expected."
• Polling: Now that we're getting closer to Election Day, the woefully meager House polling scene is finally picking up. As you'd expect, though, almost all of the surveys below are internal polls:
• CA-07: Garin-Hart-Yang (D): Ami Bera (D-inc): 47, Doug Ose (R): 43 (conducted for the House Majority PAC).
• IL-13: Public Opinion Strategies (R): Rodney Davis (R-inc): 55, Ann Calis (D): 36 (conducted for Davis).
• MN-02: Remington Research (R): John Kline (R-inc): 54, Mike Obermueller (D): 32.
• NY-11: GBA Strategies (D): Domenic Recchia (D): 46, Mike Grimm (R-inc): 46 (conducted for Recchia).
• NY-24: Siena College: Dan Maffei (D-inc): 50, John Katko (R): 42.
A few thoughts:
• In CA-07's top-two primary, which featured a contested three-way GOP battle, Republicans combined for 51 percent of the vote while Bera took 47. In 2012, California Democrats universally performed better in the general election compared to the primary, so either Bera can expect a bump that he hasn't yet received... or, more disturbingly, perhaps 2014 won't follow the same pattern. One real problem for Bera is that Ose is very wealthy and reportedly just launched a $1.3 million TV ad buy.
• Rodney Davis obviously wants to send a message that IL-13 is off the table for Democrats. Given that neither major party committee has spent a dime here yet, that may well be the case.
• Bill Maher definitely had better targets to choose from. He chose MN-02.
• NY-11 is the only race here where we've seen recent polling from other sources—in this case, Siena, which had Grimm up 44-40. GBA's new numbers indicate they don't think Siena's too far from the truth.
• Dan Maffei certainly has to hope Siena's also on the mark in upstate New York, since both party committees are spending as though this is a very competitive race. Given the big cash disparity between the DCCC and NRCC, it doesn't seem as though Republicans can afford to spend big just to try to expand the playing field. In other words, when you're behind in the money race, you have to spend wisely, which generally means sticking to winnable races.
Grab Bag:
• DCCC, NRCC: The DCCC's cycle-long fundraising advantage over the NRCC reached epic proportions in August, with the D-Trip raising a monster $10 million last month to just $4 million for the House Republicans. (You can see the gap visualized here.) Both committees have been spending heavily, but the DCCC spent far more last month, $12 million versus $6 million for the NRCC. Despite that, Democrats still have a wide cash advantage, $55 million to $46 million.
To make up the shortfall, the NRCC just obtained a $20 million line of credit, a common post-Labor Day move. (They did the same thing last cycle but only wound up borrowing $12 million.) The Democrats, meanwhile, are reportedly considering taking out a $10 million loan. So even if both parties max out their credit cards, Team Blue will have just as much to spend down the stretch run, and won't wind up as deeply in debt.
• Election Outlook: In Monday's installment of the Election Outlook (the recurring series formerly known as "Poll Explorer"), we've had to change the rules on the Kansas Senate race once again, thanks to the Kansas Supreme Court removing Chad Taylor's name from the ballot. We'll only be aggregating polls that test a two-way Greg Orman/Pat Roberts race. Unfortunately, that didn't increase odds of a Democratic "victory" in Kansas much, since Democratic odds of holding a majority have declined, thus reducing Orman's odds of caucusing with the Dems.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: Put Alaska First once again hits Republican Dan Sullivan for wanting the government to seize private lands: The size of the buy is $459,000. On the GOP side, Alaska's Energy, America's Values is spending $285,000, while the NRSC is throwing down $112,000.
• AR-Sen: The NRSC again calls Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor a Washington insider. Crossroads GPS is also spending $191,000 against Pryor.
• CO-Sen: Senate Majority PAC hits Republican Rep. Cory Gardner on Medicare. The DSCC also hits Gardner on birth control and abortion.
• IA-Sen: Senate Majority PAC hits Republican Joni Ernst on Social Security privatization.
• KY-Sen: Democrat Alison Grimes portrays Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell as an absentee senator.
• NC-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters spends $616,000 for Democrat Kay Hagan.
• NH-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spends about $1 million against Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen: They recently ran this ad against her.
• OR-Sen: New spots from both Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkely and Republican Monica Werby.
• SD-Sen: Republican Mike Rounds spends a minute portraying himself as a bland conservative, while decrying the negative ads being run against him. Democrat Rick Weiland also is on the air, talking about defending Medicare and Social Security.
• WV-Sen: Republican Shelley Moore Capito goes positive, highlighting her work helping a constituent.
• John Bolton SuperPAC: Apparently, this exists. Former U.N. Ambassador John Bolton is helping the Republicans in Senate contests in Arkansas, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. The first two buys are about $270,000 each, while Bolton is spending $355,000 in North Carolina.
• NextGen Climate: Various expenditures in favor of Team Blue.
• NRA: The National Rifle Association has new spots hitting Democrats in Senate contests in Georgia, Iowa, and West Virginia. We also have various expenditures here.
• Senate Majority PAC: Various expenditures on the Democratic side (here and here).
• CO-Gov: Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper again uses his background running a restaurant as a metaphor for his style as governor.
• CT-Gov: Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy hits Republican Tom Foley for opposing incentives that kept jobs in the state. Foley goes positive on education.
• FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist has another Spanish-language spot narrated by his running mate Annette Taddeo.
• IL-Gov: One of the nastiest races in America just got a little nastier. Republican Bruce Rauner hits Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn for allegedly ordering the secret release of 230 violent criminals. The narrator describes some of the heinous acts they committed after getting out of prison, including murder.
This is not the type of ad you usually run if you're comfortable with your lead in the polls. As Taniel points out, Rauner's edge appears to have slipped in recent weeks. From June to August, non-internal polls gave Rauner an average lead of 9.2 percent: His September average was 1.25.
It's unclear if Rauner's summer lead was inflated by Republican-leaning pollsters like We Ask America flooding the zone or if Quinn has made up real ground (or if the answer is a mix of both). Ads like this can do real damage to their intended target but they could backfire if the Rauner campaign doesn't have its facts straight or if the family of a victim complains. We'll see what happens next here, but it's very unlikely that voters will ignore this ad.
• MA-Gov: CommonWealth Future PAC portrays Democrat Martha Coakley as out-of-touch.
• ME-Gov: The RGA again accuses Democrat Mike Michaud of trying to turn Maine into a haven for undocumented immigrants, while praising Republican Gov. Paul LePage for welfare reform.
• MN-Gov: Democratic Gov. Mark Dayton uses hockey as a metaphor for his record.
• TX-Gov: Republican Greg Abbott goes negative on Democrat Wendy Davis for going negative on him.
• WI-Gov: EMILY's List reserves $1.2 million in TV time for early October in support of Democrat Mary Burke. Greater Wisconsin also goes after Republican Gov. Scott Walker on school funding.
• AZ-01: Republican Andy Tobin stresses his accomplishments as speaker of the Arizona House.
• CA-31: Democrat Pete Aguilar continues to go positive, while the DCCC again hits Republican Paul Chabot.
• CA-36: Democratic Rep. Raul Ruiz speaks to the camera in a Spanish-language spot.
• CA-52: The DCCC spends $120,000 against Republican Carl DeMaio.
• IA-03: Democrat Staci Appel defends herself against GOP attempts to portray her as weak on terrorism.
• IL-12: The NRCC hits Democratic Rep. Bill Enyart on congressional perks and Obamacare, while portraying Republican Mike Bost as different.
• IN-02: Republican Rep. Jackie Walorski.
• LA-05: Republican Rep. Vance McAllister is out with his first spot, featuring his wife Kelly. The two of course don't directly mention the recent scandal where the congressman was caught on camera making out with another woman, but Kelly alludes to it when she declares she's blessed to have a husband who owns up to his mistakes.
• LA-06: Republican state Rep. Lenar Whitney, one of the many Republicans competing in the November jungle primary, is out with her first spot. I have to say, for someone who calls herself the "Sarah Palin of the South," I was expecting something a lot more interesting.
• MI-01: The NRCC goes after Democrat Jerry Cannon on Obamacare.
• MN-08: The DCCC continues to depict Republican Stewart Mills as a greedy rich guy.
• NJ-03: The DCCC continues to paint Republican Tom MacArthur as an immoral businessman, this time accusing him of profiting from a company that declined insurance claims from injured firefighters.
• NY-11: When the DCCC first began running ads against indicted Republican Rep. Michael Grimm, we wondered if they were just trying to finish him off early or if they found a close race here. With two new polls showing Grimm still very much in the fight, it looks like we can choose door number two here. The group's newest spot goes right at Grimm's ethics, which comes as no surprise.
National Republicans haven't begun advertising in this expensive district and it remains to be seen if they really want to spend big to bail Grimm out of trouble. At least one group is shelling out some money to help Grimm though: The ironically-named Defending Main Street SuperPAC is spending $100,000 here.
• PA-08: Americans for Responsible Solutions recently ran a spot for Republican Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, and we learn that it was for $374,000.
• TX-23: The NRCC hits Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego on energy jobs.
• WV-02: Until now Democrat Nick Casey has been all positive, but this time he goes after Republican Alex Mooney's most obvious vulnerability. The spot reminds voters that Mooney lived in Maryland until he decided to run for office in West Virginia, and hits him on coal too for good measure.
• WV-03: House Majority PAC hits Republican Evan Jenkins in Medicare.
• House: Various expenditures from the DCCC and NRCC.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, and Steve Singiser.