Denise Grady, of
The New York Times, reports
the C.D.C. estimates ebola cases could reach 1.4 million in 4 months.
In the worst-case scenario, Liberia and Sierra Leone could have 21,000 cases of Ebola by Sept. 30 and 1.4 million cases by Jan. 20 if the disease keeps following its current trajectory, without effective methods to contain it. These figures take into account the fact that many cases go undetected, and estimate that there are actually 2.5 times as many as reported.
In the best-case model — which assumes that the dead are buried safely and that 70 percent of patients are treated in settings that reduce the risk of transmission — the epidemic in both countries would be “almost ended” by Jan. 20, the report said. It showed the proportion of patients now in such settings as about 18 percent in Liberia and 40 percent in Sierra Leone.
“My gut feeling is, the actions we’re taking now are going to make that worst-case scenario not come to pass,” Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, the C.D.C. director, said in a telephone interview. “But it’s important to understand that it could happen.”
The current official case count is 5,843, including 2,803 deaths, according to the World Health Organization.
The W.H.O. also published a revised forecast predicting 20,000 more cases by November 2, if control measures do not improve.
While the W.H.O. forecast does not extend as far into the future as the C.D.C. estimate, they are consistent. The W.H.O.'s announcement adds that the additional concern now is that if the spread of the Ebola virus is not stopped soon, it may become a permanent presence in Western Africa.
President Obama has already announced the United States' intention to send 3,000 military personnel to Liberia to build 17 hospitals–which Dr. Frieden acknowledged could be part of a turn-around scenario.
One important factor is increasing health workers' perceptions in regards to their personal safety, since so many health workers have become infected.
Another significant step in strategy is apparent in the U.S. aid announcement which includes 400,000 home care kits with gloves and chlorine to enable families to take care of patients at home. This is interpreted to be tacit recognition that even the recently announced major increases in foreign aid will be insufficient to keep pace with the rapidly spreading and out of control epidemic.
As terrible as these assessments may seem, I am slightly encouraged that health authorities and the rest of the world seem to finally be taking this threat seriously. While the announced interventions are still woefully inadequate, they represent significant steps in the right direction and the first signs that our "global health system" is finally engaging at an appropriate level. European and Asian governments should now also step up to the plate with responses comparable to those of President Obama while we still have a chance to control the Ebola virus before it becomes permanently established.