Democratic Sen. Mark Begich
PPP takes a look at the Last Frontier and finds tight races for U.S. Senate and governor. In the former contest, they find Republican Dan Sullivan with a small 43-41 lead over Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. When supporters of third-party candidates are asked to choose between the two main contenders, Sullivan posts a 45-42 edge. In early August, before the Republican primary,
Begich led 43-37.
While this is far from a huge deficit, there is one massive warning sign for Begich in the crosstabs. Begich's approval rating is underwater at 42-51, while Sullivan posts a 44-42 favorable rating. If this is anywhere close to accurate, Begich could be in real trouble: It's very difficult to win in a state hostile to your party when you're clearly the less popular of the two candidates. Not helping things is that Barack Obama has a 40-56 job approval rating here.
It's worth noting that a recent Harstad poll conducted for the pro-Democratic Senate Majority PAC showed a very different race here. They pegged Begich's favorable rating at 50-42, a lot better than Sullivan's 41-42 rating. All this gave Begich a five-point lead in Harstad's survey. Favorable ratings and job approval ratings aren't the same thing, and it's possible that a tangible amount of voters like Begich personally while disapproving of his job in the Senate, but it's unlikely that PPP and Harstad are both right at the same time.
Begich may have some room to grow in PPP's survey. The undecideds are mostly independents, a group that is breaking for Begich 42-36. Looking at race, more non-white voters (primarily Native Americans) are undecided than whites: "Other" is currently breaking for Begich 42-34. That said, this may all come down to a question of whether PPP or Harstad is closer to the mark when it comes to Begich's popularity. If Harstad's right and Begich is popular he stands a good chance to win; if PPP is correct and voters are unhappy with Begich's performance in office, it's very hard to see him winning unless Sullivan's ratings crash.
Things are also tight for governor. A few weeks ago, Democratic nominee Byron Mallott dropped out of the race and accepted the lieutenant governor's spot on independent Bill Walker's ticket. PPP finds Walker leading Republican Gov. Sean Parnell by a narrow 42-41 spread: When supporters of minor independent candidates are asked to choose between the two, Walker leads 45-41.
Parnell isn't popular, posting a 42-46 job approval, while Walker has a healthy 40-23 job approval. The only other recent poll of the Parnell-Walker race came from Hays Research on behalf of the AFL-CIO: They gave Walker a larger 37-30 edge. The Senate race will overshadow the gubernatorial contest, but it looks like Parnell has a real fight on his hands.