Arkansas Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor
PPP takes a look at the Natural State, and they do not find good news for Democrats in either of this year's contests. In the Senate race, Republican Tom Cotton leads Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor 43-38, up three points from
early August. That's not a good spread for Pryor but what's really terrifying is his approval rating. Pryor posts a dire 36-51 job approval, while Cotton has a 40-41 favorable rating. Unless this poll is really wrong or unless Cotton gets really unpopular really fast, it's hard to see Pryor winning here with these kinds of numbers.
It is worth noting that a recent Hickman Analytics poll for the DSCC showed a different terrain: They found Pryor up 46-43, and posting a 47-39 favorable rating compared to Cotton's 43-38. A recent Marist poll also found both candidates with similar favorable ratings, though they also had Cotton up by five-points among likely voters. Pryor had better hope that he's not anywhere as reviled as PPP thinks he is, or else there's probably no way he's going back to Washington.
We also have a look at the gubernatorial race, and PPP, like almost everyone, shows Republican Asa Hutchinson leading Democrat Mike Ross. They give Hutchinson a 44-38 edge, very similar to what they found in August. Opinion of Ross is mixed, with him posting a 35-36 favorable rating, but Hutchinson is well liked at 43-35. Both parties are spending big here and this doesn't look over, but this continues to look like Hutchinson's race to lose.
One potential piece of good news for Democrats here is that outgoing Gov. Mike Beebe is very popular, with an excellent 63-21 favorable rating. Pryor and Ross are hoping that some of Beebe's popularity rubs off on them, and we'll see if Democrats can make good use of the governor. In a hypothetical 2016 Senate match, Beebe leads Republican incumbent John Boozman 49-39. However, given that Beebe would be almost 70 on election day that year, he may not be keen to start a Senate career from scratch.