Today we announce the results of our fundraiser for ICESAR / Icelandic Search and Rescue, our top-donor prize, and the finalists in our raffle prize.
But first... let's zoom in on the situation once again with another edition of Eldfjallavakt.
Picture please - thanks, NASA.
Here is Þorbjargarhraun as it was five days ago, as the southeastern lava flow was nearing its maximum extent and before the two new side flows began. You can see the extent of the plume quite clearly.
Magnify, please.
You can see the steam still rising from the flow on the northern side as it continues a slow crawl to the north. But let's zoom in on the eruption itself.
Magnify.
The river of lava is of such magnitude (similar to that of a sizeable water river) that it has no need to form lava tubes, and thus remains quite obvious.
Pan northeast.
Here we see that despite the fact that this tongue is no longer being fed by the river, it remains glowing hot and slowly expands by subsidence and moving downhill. Let's make it clearer.
Magnify.
You can see Skínandi and the proto-lake. At this point the river is struggling with a relatively small bank, but there's an even higher riverbank to the east which further prevents further giving way to the east. This is why it will be interesting to see the interaction when the newest southern flow enters this area.
But, of course, this imagery was taken several days ago, when the previous southern flow was expanding. So where was the lava river headed at this time?
Zoom out and enhance.
Here we have the IR channel active to see through the plume and bring out the hottest areas.
Magnify.
Here you can see the flow doing its part to further pin down the river. That's a lot of glowing rock. To put it in cube terms, the outflow is about that of a 300 meter cube every day (the Empire State Building, without its antenna, stands 380 meters).
This is, quite obviously, primarily an effusive eruption. That doesn't stop it from pelting people with scoria from time to time, kilometers away:
(Credit: John A. Stevenson)
And you thought it was bad to get stuck in a hailstorm!
Of course there are some things you'd rather see flying through the air. While it's unknown, it was most likely gas that has killed the birds found on-site:
(Credit: John A. Stevenson)
After hitting Mývatn yesterday, it briefly nailed Reyðarfjörður...
... before heading to the Höfn area and other locations that don't have meters. But the meter situation is greatly improving:
There are still some big gaps, like Vestfirðir (the northwest) and some places in the south (and particularly Höfn in the southeast, which regularly gets hit with a strong plume). But overall it's much better. My favorite two new meters are right across the fjörd from my land!
I can't express how thankful I am for this; I'm often uneasy working on my land when there might be Mist in the area, because I really exert myself out there (which puts one at the greatest risk for complications), and I have little shelter if it turns bad (thankfully a couple kind Kossacks brought me a gas mask last week!). If I would be, say, working at the bottom of my canyon, I'd have to scale the slope back up to my car, serious exertion for 15 minutes or so, to reach shelter. Now I can keep up better with changes and know what the situation is before I would be putting myself in a potentially bad situation,.
Now, there is unfortunately a pretty big discrepancy between the two meters. Personally, I'm inclined to believe the Gröf meter more - it's more consistent with other meters in the region and it's not near an industrial building like the Kríuvarða meter. Now, those pollution levels would be awfully high by Icelandic industry standards, the highest SO2 ever measured in Iceland before this event was only 50% more than that. But overall I'm going to trust the Gröf meter more.
And here's why those meters could be important soon:
A low is going to move over Iceland tomorrow. The circular windflow patterns around the low can reverse the wind direction - and at times it's even going to be strong reversed winds, which could potentially bring the plume - containing a lot more SO2 pollution than the whole EU combined - to the capital region. The gas forecast is said to be particularly difficult in the coming days, so we really don't know. But at least now I feel prepared in case it does turn bad, that I won't be stuck out working in the countryside without a mask.
(Credit: Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson)
Of course, the greatest danger is right near the site - not just gas, but jökulhlaup risk, changing river and lava flow patterns, and a whole host of other dangers. We've heard a lot about how the scientists and media are kept safe by extreme vigilence of the situation and being alerted to the changes. But how exactly can they know who is at risk for what? That's what the TETRA system is for:
(Credit: RÚV / Júlíus)
All of the TETRA communications devices carried by people on-site don't only act as radios but also contain GPS systems that constantly broadcast the user's position, which then shows up to the monitoring team in Húsavík. The team can then alert them to general or local dangers as they arise. Communications to the area (which is, of course, deep in the middle of a massive wilderness) are handled by a GSM (cellular) repeater tower, which also handles communications for all of the automated meters in the area.
To put it another way... Iceland has been preparing for this kind of situation for quite a long time. Of course, one can get a bit blase about it, such as Ármann Höskuldsson, who says that even a big eruption in the caldera won't be a big deal because it won't last long and "Iceland won't be blown into pieces". Here his talking about it between cuts to pretty clips of lava:
But there's plenty more pictures to look at.
(Credit: Vísir / GVA)
(Credit: John A. Stevenson)
(Credit: John A. Stevenson)
(Credit: John A. Stevenson)
(Credit: Kasper Solberg)
Below I've included an excellent video from RÚV: "Bárðarbunga: Rísinn rumskar" ("The giant stirs"). This nearly half-hour video covers pretty much everything that's happened thusfar, with excellent footage. There's only one problem: it's all in Icelandic.
I'll rougly sum up for you.
"Wow, something is going on!"
"What's going on?"
"I've got no clue!"
"Oh hey, something's happening!"
"Wait, was something actually happening?"
"Wow something big is going on!"
Repeat. ;) Pretty much the story of this event thusfar. My only real complaint about the video? It's about a serious topic, but then in their cutscenes they have this cheesy 50s monster movie music that makes me break out into laughter.
Okay... now to a topic that's not a funny topic. But still one to smile about.
Last night concluded our Daily Kos Styrktarátak Slysavarnarfélagsins Landsbjargar, our drive to raise money for ICESAR (Icelandic Search and Rescue). Ready for the total raised? Here it is:
$8544 from 228 people. The number's even more psychologocally "signicant" in Icelandic currency: 1.02 million krónur. It's really great to have gotten to the million mark. :)
Really, I'm just amazed at you all. I was expecting maybe $500 to $1000 in the beginning, and you just blew me away. And so I'm very glad now to move onto prizes!
Our high donor prize goes to... PurpleElectric, for his generous donation of $300! As per a message he already sent me concerning preferred prizes, I'll me jamming a package with as much lopi wool as I can fit, as soon as I learn his style and color preferences. PurpleElectric, I'll be sending you a message shortly. :)
As I mentioned last night, I'm going to do the raffle in two stages, to make it a bit more exciting - first, 10 finalists, then tomorrow I'll announce the winner (chosen using the same method). Everyone's name is weighted by how much they donated, so high donors are more likely to be chosen, but even people with $5 donations are in the running. It's all handled by an algorithm I wrote into the spreadsheet, so I'm totally out of the loop on this one.
Ready? Here we go!
1) Dallasdoc ($100)
2) oortdust ($20)
3) zeke7273 ($25)
4) heraldstorm ($50)
5) vgtal ($100)
6) Nancy Wightman ($50)
7) rabidsamfan ($100)
8) Swizzle ($100)
9) Jeremy McGee ($100)
10) doingbusiness ($5)
I feel I should have something for the finalists who don't get the prize... hmm... let me know if you think of anything I can do for you. Oh, and if anyone wants to boost their total (or anyone else wants to make an anonymous donation to boost someone else's total), I'll add that into the weighing for selecting the winner tomorrow. ;)
As for everyone else - regardless of how much you donated, I owe you all a huge debt of gratitude. You seriously stepped up to the plate here.
And while they'll never known it, there very well may be people in the future who owe you their lives. To each of you, I just want to say:
ÞAKKA ÞÉR KÆRLEGA FYRIR!
Update: It's been pointed out to me that if I weigh by contributions again in choosing the winner among the finalists, then people with high donations will have the odds biased in their favor twice in a row rather than just once, making the net weighting proportional to the square of donations rather than a linear correlation. Good point. Consequently, I'll just have the winner chosen at random from the pool.