The Guardian reports
Solar power could be world's top electricity source by 2050, says IEA. The International Energy Agency predicts solar photovoltaics could generate 16% of the world's electricity with solar thermal energy generating an additional 11%.
This seems like a conservative, perhaps even "grudging" forecast to me, however, I offer it for your perusal and discussion.
Solar energy could be the top source of electricity by 2050, aided by plummeting costs of the equipment to generate it, a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the West’s energy watchdog, said on Monday.
IEA Reports said solar photovoltaic (PV) systems could generate up to 16% of the world’s electricity by 2050, while solar thermal electricity (STE) - from “concentrating” solar power plants - could provide a further 11%.
“The rapid cost decrease of photovoltaic modules and systems in the last few years has opened new perspectives for using solar energy as a major source of electricity in the coming years and decades,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven.
Solar photovoltaic (PV) panels constitute the fastest-growing renewable energy technology in the world since 2000, although solar is still less than 1% of energy capacity worldwide.
China is expected to lead PV expansion along with the the United States, while the U.S., Africa, India, and Middle East are expected to lead in the expansion of solar thermal energy.
Going to the original report, Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy - 2014 edition, we learn
Solar PV entails no greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during operation and does not emit other pollutants (such as oxides of sulphur and nitrogen); additionally, it consumes no or little water. As local air pollution and extensive use of fresh water for cooling of thermal power plants are becoming serious concerns in hot or dry regions, these benefits of solar PV become increasingly important.
Since 2010, the world has added more solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity than in the previous four decades. Total global capacity overtook 150 gigawatts (GW) in early 2014
The geographical pattern of deployment is rapidly changing. While a few European countries, led by Germany and Italy, initiated large-scale PV development, since 2013, the People’s Republic of China has led the global PV market, followed by Japan and the United States
PV system prices have been divided by three in six years in most markets, while module prices have been divided by five
Achieving this roadmap’s vision of 4 600 GW of installed PV capacity by 2050 would avoid the emission of up to 4 gigatonnes (Gt) of carbon dioxide (CO2) annually
One glaring unexplained aspect of this IEA roadmap is the lack of further solar penetration from 2040 to 2050. I'm going to look for a broader report to see what assumptions are being made about the other energy sources that constitute the remaining components of the energy mix predicted here. There may be some political aspects to this forecast worthy of footnotes.
Levelised cost of electricity from new-built PV systems and generation by sectors