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7:57 AM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Sen: On Tuesday, Public Policy Polling released its poll of the Pelican State and they found what most pollsters have found: A small but stubborn lead for Republican Bill Cassidy in a one-on-one race with Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu.
In Louisiana's November all-party primary, Landrieu leads with 42 percent, far from the 50 percent she'd need to win without a runoff. Cassidy leads fellow Republican and tea partier Rob Maness 34-12: All around, about the same numbers ORC recently found for CNN. Democrats would love to face Maness instead of Cassidy but he doesn't have many resources and no well-funded outside groups are coming to his aid right now. Unless there's a massive surprise, it looks inevitable that Landrieu and Cassidy will advance to a runoff in December.
In a hypothetical runoff, Landrieu trails 48-45. The 7 percent who are undecided identify as Republicans and Democrats in equal numbers, and voted for Mitt Romney 7-3. Most polling over the last few months has shown Cassidy with a small lead in one-on-one matches. A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll conducted for the Democratic group Senate Majority PAC gave Landrieu a 2-point edge, but she's generally trailed by 1 to 3 points (with the exception of a Fox News poll that gave Cassidy an unrealistic double-digit lead).
While a 3-point deficit is far from insurmountable, PPP finds that Landrieu is quite unpopular: They peg her approval rating at 42-52. Cassidy's favorables aren't incredible at 37-41 but he has the advantage of running in a very conservative state. It's worth noting that PPP has generally found politicians from both parties with weaker ratings than most other pollsters, but it's still not a good sign for Landrieu if Cassidy has better personal numbers. If you're an unpopular incumbent running in an increasingly hostile state with a very disliked president representing your party (Obama sports a 39-56 approval rating here), your only real option is to make your opponent even more unpopular than you: So far, that doesn't seem to be happening.
PPP also answered the most important question in American politics: Is it a good idea for a politician in a tough race to help someone do a keg stand? It looks like the answer is no: Voters say they disapprove of Landrieu's "keg stand gambit" by a 21-36 margin. If you can't get away with assisting a constituent consume alcohol in Louisiana, you just can't get away with it anywhere.
Mary Landrieu is an incredibly tough campaigner. In 2002 she prevailed in a runoff that Republicans felt they were certain to win. It's also worth noting that while Democrats have usually had problems getting their voters to the polls in runoffs and special elections, Louisiana is one state that's very used to voting at irregular times. In 2002, turnout between November and December dropped by less than 1 percent, though there haven't been any Senate runoffs since then. Even so, for her to win she'll likely need PPP to severely be underestimating her popularity, or she'll to take Cassidy's numbers even further below sea level than they are now. Democrats always knew this would be a difficult race, and this poll only confirms it.
8:50 AM PT (Jeff Singer): LA-Gov: PPP also took a look at the 2015 gubernatorial contest and found Republican Sen. David Vitter as the early frontrunner. PPP did not test the October all-party primary but they looked at several hypothetical November runoff scenarios. Against state House Minority Leader John Bell Edwards, Vitter leads 50-32, while he leads Democratic New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (the brother of Sen. Mary Landrieu) 47-38. In a general election against fellow Republican and Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne, Vitter leads 37-30. Dardenne also posts a double-digit lead over Edwards but leads Landrieu only 43-39.
Vitter and Edwards have announced that they are running, while Dardenne is very likely to enter the contest. Landrieu is at the top of most state Democrats' wish lists but he has been coy about his plans. There are plenty of other ambitious Louisiana politicians who are contemplating runs but if PPP tested each of them, we'd be here all day.
A few things are worth noting. We have no idea what November 2015 turnout will look like, so these numbers should be taken with some caution. Vitter may also be more vulnerable against Dardenne in a one-on-one race than he looks right now. Dardenne has a reputation as a moderate and he could consolidate enough Democrats and Republicans to cost the very conservative Vitter. However, Dardenne would need to get through the jungle primary first, and he could easily get squeezed out in a crowded race.
One possible asset for Democrats is that outgoing Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal remains horrifically unpopular, at 34-55. In a very hypothetical matchup with former Democratic Gov. Edwin Edwards, Jindal loses 47-43. Jindal will be eligible to run for governor again in 2019, but it doesn't look like Louisiana will want him back. Edwards isn't the most popular guy in the world with a 40-44 favorable rating but it's pretty good for an ex-con: I'm willing to bet that fellow ex-governors Rod Blagojevich, Bob McDonnell, and John Rowland will be a lot less popular when they get out of prison. Edwards is currently running for the House in the very Republican 6th District, and is considered a longshot.
9:11 AM PT: FL-Gov: Heh. SurveyUSA's ever-bouncy Florida gubernatorial poll now shows Democrat Charlie Crist seizing a 46-40 lead on GOP Gov. Rick Scott. A week ago, Scott was up 43-42, so we can eagerly anticipate half a dozen Beltway pieces quoting frantic Republican operatives about how the GOP is in a shambles, right? Wrong, because that would be stupid, though a desire to avoid saying stupid stuff seldom motivates the pundit crowd. Mostly, they're focused entirely on the Senate and don't really care about governor's races, even in very big states. Also, the hashtag is #demsindisarray, duh.
Anyway, there's also a new poll from the Florida Chamber of Commerce for Scott supporters (like the Chamber) to grasp on to. It has Scott ahead 43-39, but amusingly, that's tightened since last month, when Scott was up 41-35. The Chamber says the poll was conducted by its in-house shop, the Florida Chamber Political Institute, but apparently, the real entity behind the survey is Cherry Communications, the same firm that handled the August poll.
9:24 AM PT (Jeff Singer): IA-Sen, Gov: On Saturday night Democrats got some bad news when the respected Selzer poll gave Republican Joni Ernst a 44-38 lead over Democrat Bruce Braley. Democrats released a response poll showing a tie, all but confirming that what had once looked Braley's race to lose had turned into a tough fight. On Tuesday PPP released their own poll and while it was better for Democrats than Selzer, things still aren't looking good in the Hawkeye State. PPP gives Ernst a small 44-42 lead: The group's last independent poll from a month ago found Braley up by 1 point. A more recent late August PPP poll for Americans for Tax Fairness had Ernst up 45-43.
This is one race where third-party candidates aren't having much of an impact: When voters are asked to only choose between Ernst and Braley, the GOP keeps their 2-point lead. The undecideds report voting for Obama over Romney 10-6 and they could give Braley a small boost, but far from enough to let him break open a real lead. Neither candidate is popular at all. Ernst spots a 42-46 favorable rating, while Braley is at 37-44. However, while the favorability gap between the two isn't large, it's been moving in the wrong direction. Back in August PPP found Braley with a 37-41 rating while Ernst was at 36-46. If Ernst has been getting less unpopular while Braley has been absorbing more blows, that's bad news for Team Blue.
It's possible that the GOP's recent spending blitz has something to do with this and Democrats will be able to seize the imitative in the next few weeks: Democrats have more ads reserved for the final stretch of the race. The good news is that Ernst gives Democrats plenty of material to use against her, but Braley has his own flaws that the GOP is more than happy to keep exploiting. Either side can pull off a win here, but Braley and his allies can't afford to allow Ernst to keep recovering.
PPP also took a look at the gubernatorial contest and finds what basically everyone has found: Republican Gov. Terry Branstad is looking very good to win another term. A few months ago Branstad's numbers looked a bit weak, and Democrats had some hope that Jack Hatch could pull off a surprise. But PPP now finds Branstad up 50-36, and neither party has gotten involved here recently. Selzer recently found Branstad up by a similar 48-34. The governor has a strong 53-38 approval rating, while opinions of Hatch are very mixed. Branstad, who served from 1983 to 1999 before returning in 2011, is already the longest serving governor in American history, and it looks like Iowans are happy to keep him around for another four years.
10:04 AM PT: CT-Gov: PPP hasn't polled Connecticut all cycle. This is your chance to beg them to do so:
This weekend we're going to do Georgia and a Governor's race in a state that doesn't have a major Senate race. Taking suggestions for that
— @ppppolls
11:03 AM PT: IA-04: Here's another survey from Democratic pollster DFM Research on behalf of SMART, a transportation workers union that has polled a number of jurisdictions throughout the country with a focus on rail issues. They also generally toss in some horserace questions, too, and their numbers out of Iowa's 4th Congressional District are eye-opening. Despite the seat's conservative lean—it went 54-45 for Romney—DFM finds GOP Rep. Steve King with just a 46-43 lead on Democrat Jim Mowrer.
And if you're wondering whether those results seem too rosy, here's something else to consider: Republican Joni Ernst is leading Democrat Bruce Braley 48-38 in the 4th. With statewide polls showing the Senate race a tossup, this result is pretty plausible, given Romney's performance. That in turn makes the House numbers more believable, too, particularly because the only other poll of the race, from Loras College, had King at a similar 47 percent. Mowrer was further back at 36, but the key point is that King is a few points under 50, despite holding down a district that should be a gimme for any normal Republican.
Of course, King is anything but a normal Republican. Thanks to his propensity for incendiary lunacy, he's long been his own worst enemy. Democrats have forever longed to see King hoist with his own mouthy petard, so could this finally be the year? Mowrer has actually outraised the suddenly lazy King this cycle, and he's a good fit for the district with a strong non-partisan background as an Iraq veteran—the sort of profile a Democrat wants to have in a place like this. Midterm turnout, unfortunately, will likely hurt Team Blue, but if Democrats get lucky, Steve King will hurt himself more.
11:28 AM PT: AR-Sen, Gov: Big Dog Alert! Bill Clinton is headed back to his home state of Arkansas for a series of no fewer than four rallies next week to help Razorback Democrats. Sen. Mark Pryor and gubernatorial nominee Mike Ross are likely beneficiaries, but Democrats are also running competitive candidates for the House, in particular in the 2nd District, where polls show a tight race between Pat Hays and Republican French Hill. And in the 4th, former FEMA director James Lee Witt also has long ties to Clinton, so there's a good chance he'll make an appearance as well.
12:14 PM PT: OK-Gov: Polling out of Oklahoma this year has been spotty but nevertheless quite alluring. Over the summer, a trio of polls found GOP Gov. Mary Fallin under 50 percent—including one from a GOP pollster—despite the Sooner State's strong Republican bent. Was there a chance for an extraordinary Democratic upset?
A post-Labor Day survey from SoonerPoll.com seemed to put the kibosh on that notion, with Fallin leading Democrat Joe Dorman by a healthier 50-32 spread, her largest lead to date. But now a new internal poll from Dorman's campaign, conducted by Clarity Campaign Labs, presents a totally different picture, with Fallin ahead just 47-45. The governor has an underwater 42-46 job approval rating while Dorman remains in positive territory at 39-25.
And that's in spite of RGA attack ads predictably tying Dorman to Obama (and even accusing him of voting to give tuition breaks to "illegals"—seriously). But the very fact these ads exist is another data point suggesting this race is more interesting than you'd otherwise expect. In fact, it turns out the RGA has now shelled out more than $200,000 hammering Dorman, money they'd probably prefer not to be spending in dark red Oklahoma.
Dorman's poll may be on the optimistic side, but let's see if Fallin responses with any contradictory numbers of her own. Whether she does or doesn't, though, there's enough here to merit putting this race up on the big board, so we're moving the contest from Safe Republican to Likely Republican. It's been a strange cycle. It might just get stranger still.
12:42 PM PT: Woohoo! PPP's doing Connecticut! Head over there to suggest questions.
1:07 PM PT: NC-02: Singer/activist Clay Aiken's longshot campaign against GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers has struggled to gain much traction, in part because local folks assume he's flush with Hollywood money, but Hollywood types don't actually care much about him. Aiken did, after all, achieve his celebrity status via American Idol, which means his rise to fame came outside of traditional Tinseltown channels—though you have to wonder where his supposedly fanatic "Claymate" fanbase has gone off to (perhaps they just don't care about politics).
But don't write Aiken off just yet. A new poll from SurveyUSA for the conservative Civitas Institute gives Ellmers a 47-39 lead, which is fairly soft, considering how red this district is. Still, it'll be very hard for Aiken to catch up. His favorability rating is a negative 25-35, while the incumbent is actually less well-known (an extremely rare phenomenon) but less unpopular at 25-28.
The undecideds are actually 33 percent Democratic versus 22 percent Republican (with the rest independent), but that's somewhat misleading thanks to the presence of Dixiecrat voters. To put things in perspective, 40 percent of undecideds call themselves conservatives and 51 say they're moderates, while just 9 percent are liberals—not a friendly bunch for Aiken. But if SUSA's topline numbers are right, then Ellmers still has work to do.
1:22 PM PT (Jeff Singer): Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: Both the DSCC hits Republican Dan Sullivan on women's reproductive rights, while Put Alaska First goes after him on women's health. Democratic Sen. Mark Begich's spot features Bella Hammond, the widow of former Republican Gov. Jay Hammond, praising the senator's independence.
• AR-Sen: The NRSC impressively makes it through an entire 30-second spot against Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor without mentioning Obama or Obamacare.
• CO-Sen: The NRSC hits Democratic Sen. Mark Udall on national security, accusing him of not taking terrorism seriously. Also for Team Red, Crossroads GPS spends a hefty $1,380,000. On the Democratic side, Planned Parenthood Votes accuses Republican Cory Gardner of being an extremist on birth control. The group has $608,000 behind the ad.
• IA-Sen: The Sierra Club once again ties Republican Joni Ernst to the Koch brothers, while featuring clips of Ernst calling for shutting down the EPA and being open to privatizing Social Security. The ad probably would be more effective if they only ran with one theme, emphasizing Ernst's insanity or ties to the Koch's harmful policies: By going with both, the spot doesn't really flow that well. NextGen Climate also spends another $175,000 against Ernst.
• KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts goes after independent Greg Orman, tying him to Obama and Harry Reid and accusing him of being weak on immigration. Weirdly, the narrator refers to "politician Greg Orman". Yes, anyone who runs for office is by definition a politician, but given that Roberts has been in Congress for 34-years while Orman has never been elected to anything, it's a very weird line of attack. Also for Team Red, the NRA praises Roberts.
• KY-Sen: The DSCC portrays Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell as a creature of Washington, while Senate Majority PAC accuses McConnell of trying to privatize Social Security and raise the retirement age.
On the GOP side, Kentuckians for Strong Leadership continues the recent Republican offensive against Democrat Alison Grimes on immigration. McConnell also accuses Grimes of being like Obama and running for an office she wasn't qualified for after pledging not to.
• MI-Sen: AFSCME spends $512,000 against Republican Terri Lynn Land; the group recently ran this spot.
• NC-Sen: Republican Thom Tillis has been narrowly but consistently trailing Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan in the polls, and his allies at Crossroads GPS are willing to spend big to turn things around. The group has just launched a $5 million buy in what they describe as a "multi-week effort in the final stretch".
Their spot starts by hitting Hagan for voting for Obamacare, and then praises Tillis' record on healthcare. The NRSC also contrasts Hagan with Tillis, portraying Tillis as a doer not a talker. Most outside group ads have been completely negative and it's interesting that both organizations are using so much of their ads to promote Tillis. PPP has found Tillis' personal favorability numbers to be in the gutter: If the GOP is seeing something similar it makes sense that they'd want to improve Tillis' image before it's too late.
On the Democratic side, Senate Majority PAC hits Tillis once again on Medicare: The size of the buy is $551,000.
• NH-Sen: Senate Majority PAC goes after Republican Scott Brown on women's healthcare. The NRA hits Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen on what else, guns.
• OR-Sen: Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley goes after Republican Monica Wehby for plagiarizing her plans from Karl Rove, describing the plans as harmful.
• VA-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Warner has consistently led Republican Ed Gillespie in the polls, but he evidently takes his rival seriously enough to attack him in two spots (here and here). In the first ad, Warner defends himself from Gillespie's attacks while briefly reminding viewers that Gillespie was an Enron lobbyist. The second is all about Enron and ties Gillespie to their scandal.
Gillespie himself accuses Warner of wanting to tax coal. Virginia's coal belt has become a reliably Republican area and if Gillespie is going to have any shot at winning, he'll need to do very well there.
• WV-Sen: Democrat Natalie Tennant portrays Republican Shelley Moore Capito as being too close to corrupt bankers, with the narrator accusing Capito of giving her banker husband insider tips. Capito quickly fires back, saying Tennant is attacking her family and lying about her.
• FL-Gov: The Florida Republican Party features clips of Democrat Charlie Crist and Obama saying nice things about one another.
• HI-Gov: The RGA hits Democrat David Ige on taxes.
• IL-Gov: Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn continues to focus on his efforts to help towns that were devastated by tornadoes.
• KS-Gov: It was only a matter of time before Republicans hit Democrat Paul Davis over this embarrassing story from his past that recently came to light. About a week ago, the Coffeyville Journal reported that Davis was at a strip club in 1998 when police were raiding it. Davis was unmarried at the time and says his boss brought him there. With Republican Gov. Sam Brownback trailing in the polls, it's no surprise that the GOP would use this to try and disqualify Davis.
The RGA spot starts with a clip of Davis saying that "the best example of future behavior is past behavior," then cuts to clips of news reports about the strip club story. The narrator then accuses Davis of voting against a bill that would prevent sexually oriented businesses from opening near homes, churches, and day cares. This is a decent line of attack given how socially conservative Kansas is, though after watching this spot it doesn't feel like the GOP has enough material to really destroy Davis' chances.
The NRA also goes up for Brownback. For his part Davis himself has a new spot, blaming Brownback for the poor condition of Kansas' education system.
• NE-Gov: Republican Pete Ricketts features retiring Sen. and former Gov. Mike Johanns saying nice things about him.
• NM-Gov: Republican Gov. Susana Martinez continues to paint Democrat Gary King as corrupt. Martinez has posted clear leads in what polling there is, and King's campaign has pretty much collapsed. However, Martinez's strategy of utterly nuking King has brought her this far, so why stop now?
• NY-Gov: Republican Rob Astorino completely rips off Lyndon Johnson's infamous Daisy Girl ad from 1964. And I mean completely: There's the girl counting rose peddles, the ominous countdown and the explosion. The difference is the narrator asks if New York can risk re-electing Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo when he may wind up in jail.
• PA-Gov: Republican Gov. Tom Corbett continues to attack Democrat Tom Wolf on taxes, and the spot is actually kind of funny. It has various people sarcastically saying how they love what Wolf is doing. For example one woman declares, "If it comes down to saving for my kid's college of paying higher taxes, I'm picking higher taxes every time."
• TX-Gov: Republican Greg Abbott goes positive on education.
• WI-Gov: The RGA continues to hit Democrat Mary Burke over her jobs plan. The plan in question was lifted from other Democratic campaigns word-for-word: According to Burke's campaign, a now-former adviser wrote each plan. The RGA spot features clips of Burke talking about her plan and integrity, intercut with snippets of reporters talking about how the plan was copied.
Burke herself addresses the attacks head on. She accuses Republican Gov. Scott Walker of presiding over a terrible economy before telling viewers that of course her jobs plan took ideas from other states. Burke says she wants to use the best ideas, and if Walker had done the same thing they wouldn't be in this mess. She then invites people to take a look at her plan themselves.
• FL-18: Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy cranks out yet another positive ad.
• IA-03: Democrat Staci Appel goes positive on education.
• IA-04: Democrat Jim Mowrer goes negative against Republican Rep. Steve King for the first time. He hits King for shutting down the government, opposing a minimum wage increase, and taking congressional perks.
• IL-17: Republican Bobby Schilling.
• LA-05: Republican Rep. Vance McAllister criticizes Obama on immigration and calls for repealing and replacing Obamacare. The Club for Growth ad recently ran an ad painting McAllister as a liberal: The congressman faces several other Republicans in the November jungle primary.
• NY-01: The American Action Network features tow men identified as small businesspersons blaming Democratic Rep. Tim Bishop for what Obamacare has done to their companies.
• NY-18: Republican Nan Hayworth accuses Democratic Rep. Sean Maloney for voting to cut both pensions for veterans and Medicare. Maloney himself features a disabled veteran praising the congressman for helping him.
• NY-19: Democrat Sean Eldridge accuses Republican Rep. Chris Gibson of being in the pocket of his campaign donors.
• VA-10: Republican Barbara Comstock goes positive, touting her record.
• WA-04: Dan Newhouse accuses fellow Republican Clint Didier of wanting to phase out Social Security. The two are locked in an interparty general election and Newhouse is trying to appeal to Democrats and independents while still taking enough Republicans to beat the tea partying Didier.
• WV-03: Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall emphasizes his support from the NRA.
• DCCC: New spots in AR-02, FL-02 (here and here), IA-03, IL-13, IL-17, and NH-02. Only IL-17 and NH-02 are Democratic-held.
• NRCC: New pro-GOP spots in AZ-02, FL-02, IA-03, ME-02, NY-19, NY-21, VA-10, and WV-03. Half the seats are Republican held, and half are Democratic held. We also have various expenditures from the group.
1:49 PM PT: Polling: A few random straggler polls from Tuesday:
• MI-Sen: Target-Insyght: Gary Peters (D): 48, Terri Lynn Land (R): 38
• NC-Sen: National Research (R): Kay Hagan (D-inc): 46, Thom Tillis (R): 41, Sean Haugh (Lib): 4 (Aug.: 41-39-7 Hagan) (conducted for Civitas).
• NH-Sen: ARG: Jeanne Shaheen (D-inc): 53, Scott Brown (R): 43 (Mid-Sept.: 50-45 Shaheen).
Most amusing is how Civitas,
in its press release, utterly ignored the leaners and tried to sell NC-Sen as a 1-point race.
2:00 PM PT: Polling: And some gubernatorial poll-a-mabobs, too:
• AR-Gov: Rasmussen: Asa Hutchinson (R): 46, Mike Ross (D): 42 (Aug.: 46-44 Ross).
• IL-Gov: Rasmussen: Pat Quinn (D-inc): 44, Bruce Rauner (R): 42 (Aug.: 44-39 Rauner).
• MI-Gov: Target-Insyght: Mark Schauer (D): 41, Rick Snyder (R-inc): 40 (Feb.: 47-38 Snyder).
• NH-Gov: ARG: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 55, Walt Havenstein (R): 40 (Mid-Sept.: 51-39 Hassan).
2:18 PM PT: AZ-Sen: The 2016 silly season has commenced! Reporters are already hovering around the 78-year-old John McCain, who's gone from saying he doesn't "want to be one of these old guys that should've shoved off" to saying he's "leaning toward" a bid for a sixth term in the Senate. Even better, The Hill's Alexander Bolton says that GOP Rep. David Schweikert is "flirting" with a primary challenge to McCain, though he doesn't cite any sources.
However, we do know there's bad blood between the two: McCain slammed Schweikert for a gay-baity mailer he sent out attacking his 2012 primary opponent, then-Rep. Ben Quayle, whom McCain endorsed. You may recall that Schweikert was a favorite of the Club for Growth in that redistricting-induced race, and they promised to nuke Quayle if John Boehner (who seemed to have a soft spot for "Brock Landers") didn't stay out.
In the end, though, the threats were enough. The Club didn't spend a penny but Schweikert won anyway. And whether it's McCain (the least popular senator in the country), Schweikert, or someone else, Democrats will have a good shot at picking up this Senate seat next cycle, particular if 2012 nominee Rich Carmona runs again. But if the Club wants to make Schweikert their paisan against McCain, let me just say, "Oh please, oh please!" I would just love a giant helping of that tasty, tasty cat fud.
2:49 PM PT: Polltopia: As you may have already seen, FiveThirtyEight has issued an updated version of their pollster report card, which was last issued all the way back in 2010. One particularly cool thing is that they've made all the data they've relied on for their rankings publicly downloadable, going all the way back to 1998.
I'm not a huge fan of the overall letter grades—for instance, Selzer & Co., whose clients seldom release crosstabs, scores an A+, while PPP, which almost always shares such data, gets a B- rating—but the "Simple Average Error" column showing how much a pollster tends to miss by is great, as are the bars that show whether a pollster is typically biased toward one party or the other. One helpful addition for the future would be an indicator showing each firm's partisan affiliation, if any.