A new poll, by a GOP-leaning pollster, has Gov. Scott Walker (WI) trailing in his re-election bid.
It is not hard, for followers of electoral politics, to find some talking head, or some online article, forecasting a forthcoming Republican "wave." Indeed, if you were running a tally of days since the last time a major media political observer used that phrasing (in spirit, if not in letter), you're going to need to restart your clock.
It's hard not to feel a little sense of irrational exuberance if you are a Republican, and a sense of dread if you are a Democrat, by reading the "big" polling headlines. Be it the horrible polling week last week for Alaska incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich, or the banner headline from this weekend's Des Moines Register poll (long considered a "gold standard" poll in Iowa), the recent marked decline in Democratic fortunes as it relates to the Senate has led to a wave (if you'll pardon the pun) of renewed speculation about flagging Democratic fortunes for the 2014 midterm cycle.
But is that fair? And is it accurate? The actual numbers tell us a fairly mixed story about the current state of play in 2014. For that analysis, and a look at the 40 different polls that made their way across our desk in the past four days (polls which were entered into our database between Sep 26-29), head below the fold.
AK-Sen (Hellenthal Research): Dan Sullivan (R) 46, Sen. Mark Begich (D) 42
AR-Sen (Rasmussen): Tom Cotton (R) 47, Sen. Mark Pryor (D) 40
IA-Sen (Harstad Research—D): Bruce Braley (D) 42, Joni Ernst (R) 42
IA-Sen (Selzer and Company): Joni Ernst (R) 44, Bruce Braley (D) 38
IL-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Dick Durbin (D) 51, Jim Oberweis (R) 37
LA-Sen Primary (CNN/ORC): Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 43, Bill Cassidy (R) 40, Rob Maness (R) 9
LA-Sen Runoff (CNN/ORC): Bill Cassidy (R) 50, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 47
MA-Sen (Suffolk): Sen. Ed Markey (D) 54, Brian Herr (R) 30
MA-Sen (Western New England College): Sen. Ed Markey (D) 56, Brian Herr (R) 34
ME-Sen (Univ. of New Hampshire): Sen. Susan Collins (R) 59, Shenna Bellows (D) 29
NC-Sen (CNN/ORC): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 46, Thom Tillis (R) 43, Sean Haugh (L) 7
NM-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Tom Udall (D) 52, Allen Weh (R) 39
OR-Sen (SurveyUSA): Sen. Jeff Merkley (D) 52, Monica Wehby (R) 32
RI-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Jack Reed (D) 61, Mark Zaccaria (R) 26
SD-Sen (Neilson Brothers): Mike Rounds (R) 39, Rick Weiland (D) 26, Larry Pressler (I) 24
VA-Sen (PPP): Sen. Mark Warner (D) 48, Ed Gillespie (R) 35, Robert Sarvis (L) 4
AK-Gov (Rasmussen Reports): Bill Walker (I) 47, Gov. Sean Parnell (R) 42
FL-Gov (Cherry Communications—R): Gov. Rick Scott (R) 43, Charlie Crist (D) 39, Others 9
IA-Gov (Selzer and Company): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 48, Jack Hatch (D) 34
MA-Gov (Suffolk): Martha Coakley (D) 44, Charlie Baker (R) 43
MA-Gov (Western New England College): Charlie Baker (R) 44, Martha Coakley (D) 43
MA-Gov (YouGov/U. Mass-Amherst): Charlie Baker (R) 46, Martha Coakley (D) 45
ME-Gov (Univ. of New Hampshire): Mike Michaud (D) 41, Gov. Paul LePage (R) 39, Eliot Cutler (I) 14
NM-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Susana Martinez (R) 50, Gary King (D) 37
NY-Gov (Siena): Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) 56, Rob Astorino (R) 27, Howie Hawkins (G) 7
OR-Gov (SurveyUSA): Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) 50, Dennis Richardson (R) 38
PA-Gov (Mercyhurst College): Tom Wolf (D) 43, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 28
RI-Gov (Rasmussen): Gina Raimondo (D) 42, Allan Fung (R) 37
WI-Gov (Gravis—R): Mary Burke (R) 50, Gov. Scott Walker (D) 45
AR-02 (Global Strategy Group—D): Patrick Hays (D) 44, French Hill (R) 41
MA-06 (MassINC): Seth Moulton (D) 47, Richard Tisei (R) 39
MA-06 (Tarrance Group—R): Richard Tisei (R) 41, Seth Moulton (D) 40
MN-07 (Global Strategy Group—D): Rep. Collin Peterson (D) 53, Torrey Westrom (R) 29
ME-01 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Rep. Chellie Pingree (D) 66, Isaac Misiuk (R) 13
ME-02 (Univ. of New Hampshire): Bruce Poliquin (R) 40, Emily Cain (D) 30
ND-AL (The Mellman Group—D): George Sinner (D) 40, Rep. Kevin Cramer (R) 38
NY-01 (Public Opinion Strategies—R): Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 46, Lee Zeldin (R) 46
NY-01 (Harper Polling—R): Rep. Tim Bishop (D) 44, Lee Zeldin (R) 44
NY-18 (Gravis—R): Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D) 46, Nan Hayworth (R) 40
NY-24 (Public Opinion Strategies—R): Rep. Dan Maffei (D) 46, John Katko (R) 43
Let's start our "wave" analysis in the U.S. Senate, which has been (deservedly) the source of the bulk of electoral speculation throughout the cycle, given the tenuous control the Democrats presently hold over the chamber. Without question, the class of 2014 has been marked for upheaval since the start, given the fact that 2008 was, on balance, an excellent Democratic year. This left a lot of Democratic seats up for grabs in nominally red areas.
Aside from the most naive optimists, most Democrats knew this would be a rough year. But all this talk of a "wave" building implies that it is getting worse. Is it? Let's look at how the polling in the eleven "key" races in the U.S. Senate for the month of September compares to July and August's polling (based on final field date), to get a feel for the level of erosion for Democrats (if any) in those key races.
AK-Sen:
September: Sullivan +1.8 (7 polls)
July/August: Begich +4.6 (5 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +6.4
AR-Sen:
September: Cotton +1.6 (10 polls)
July/August: Cotton +0.1 (8 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +1.5
CO-Sen:
September: Udall +0.9 (11 polls)
July/August: Udall +1.2 (5 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +0.3
GA-Sen:
September: Perdue +3.7 (7 polls)
July/August: Perdue +1.4 (11 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +2.3
IA-Sen:
September: Ernst +0.6 (8 polls)
July/August: Ernst +0.1 (7 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +0.5
KS-Sen:
September: Orman +7.0 (3 polls)
July/August: Orman +10.0 (1 poll)
SHIFT: Republican +3.0
KY-Sen:
September: McConnell +5.4 (8 polls)
July/August: McConnell +2.8 (5 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +2.6
LA-Sen (Runoff):
September: Cassidy +3.2 (6 polls)
July/August: Landrieu +1.8 (6 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +5.0
MI-Sen:
September: Peters +5.1 (10 polls)
July/August: Peters +4.2 (12 polls)
SHIFT: Democrats +0.9
NC-Sen:
September: Hagan +3.5 (13 polls)
July/August: Hagan +1.7 (7 polls)
SHIFT: Democrats +1.8
NH-Sen:
September: Shaheen +4.7 (13 polls)
July/August: Shaheen +7.2 (6 polls)
SHIFT: Republicans +2.5
Right away, some disturbing signs for Democrats are immediately clear. For one thing, the Democrats are now trailing in four seats that are currently held by their party (Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana). Add those four to the three seats already presumed to be near-impossible retentions for the Democrats (Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia), and the Democrats are down to 48 seats and it is "hello, Majority Leader McConnell."
For another, nine of the eleven races, over the past month, have moved in the direction of the GOP. Some of the movement has been marked (Alaska shifted the most, while Louisiana's movement is overblown a little by a couple of polls by the Senate Conservatives Fund clearly designed to make Bill Cassidy, whom they hate, look bad), while some has been more subtle.
But it is worth noting that only Kay Hagan (whose resurrection has been well covered) and Gary Peters (whose consistent edge has been a bit more "under the radar") have managed to stretch out leads among the Democrats, as of late.
But one thing that might bring Democrats out of despair, albeit slightly, is that virtually all of the movement on the GOP side has been a bit more subtle than one might think. Indeed, virtually all of them moved three points or less. Take Mark Udall. Cory Gardner is "doing better", but it is only in a super-statistically-insignificant sense, if you average in all the polls from this month. The reason why it looks worse than it does is that the piss-poor polls for him have gotten a lot of ink, while some less pessimistic polling (including, admittedly, a couple of his internal polls) has flown under the radar.
Another factor, of course, is that a week is a lifetime at this point in the campaign cycle. We forget that it was only a tad over three weeks ago that NBC News/Marist released a poll showing Mark Udall leading Cory Gardner by six points. That might be only 23 days ago, but it also over a half-dozen polls ago. Of course, in this breakneck pacing at the close of a cycle, we tend to focus on the most recent major poll release. And, it is fair to say, most of those have sucked for the Democrats over the past 4-6 days.
That slippage, however, is not necessarily universal. If you look at the list of polls from the last four days, there are a number of gubernatorial polls and House polls that actually look pretty damned good for the Democrats. Which makes the whole "wave" thing a little tougher to quantify. As I noted a few weeks ago, it is awfully hard to call this a "wave" year if that wave is limited, with little exception, to the Senate races.
Now, if the GOP fortunes are favorable at the gubernatorial level, as well as the House and state legislative level, then the "wave" description of this cycle will become exponentially more appropriate. So, are we there in those races, as well? That will be the subject (teaser alert!) of the next couple of Polling Wraps.
On Friday, we will look at the "wave" narrative, as it relates to the gubernatorial races.