Republicans have touted Gov. Rick Scott's lead in the weekly SurveyUSA poll in Florida. They're quiet this week.
In one of the busier three-day segments of polling volume thus far in the cycle (a total of...wait for it...
65 different polls), there are a lot of individual data points to cause both celebration and heartburn for both parties.
But what we began to focus on this week is a "bigger picture" assessment. Namely, does the recent data support the growing pundit consensus that we are on the brink of a "GOP wave" year?
On Tuesday, we looked at the Senate. In that analysis, we saw that there was, indeed, marked movement towards the bulk of the GOP candidates in competitive races over the last month. However, it would be pretty hard for Republicans to get too complacent, or Democrats too discouraged, by the closer look at those numbers. The movement was fairly modest, and while the current numbers support a GOP takeover of the Senate, a big-picture view makes it clear that said takeover is nowhere near assured, and what feels like an avalanche of bad polling news over the last month has actually been a bit less severe than it "felt."
As we turn our attention to the governor's races this time around, the "wave" narrative, quite frankly, gets a little more muddled. But, first, feel free to peruse what was a pretty voluminous (and, in some respects, perplexing) set of over five dozen polls that have come across our eyes in the past three days (9/30 through 10/2).
CO-Sen (Rasmussen): Cory Gardner (R) 48, Sen. Mark Udall (D) 47
IA-Sen (Gravis—R): Joni Ernst (R) 50, Bruce Braley (D) 41
IA-Sen (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner—D): Bruce Braley (D) 47, Joni Ernst (R) 46
IA-Sen (PPP—D): Joni Ernst (R) 44, Bruce Braley (D) 42
KS-Sen (Suffolk): Greg Orman (I) 46, Sen. Pat Roberts (R) 41
LA-Sen General (PPP—D): Bill Cassidy (R) 48, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) 45
LA-Sen Primary (PPP—D): Mary Landrieu (D) 42, Bill Cassidy (R) 34, Rob Maness (R) 12
KY-Sen (Mellman Group—D): Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) 42, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 40
MI-Sen (EPIC-MRA): Gary Peters (D) 42, Terri Land (R) 33
MI-Sen (Lake Research—D): Gary Peters (D) 45, Terri Land (R) 36
MI-Sen (Mitchell Research): Gary Peters (D) 49, Terri Land (R) 36
MI-Sen (Target Insyght): Gary Peters (D) 48, Terri Land (R) 38
MN-Sen (Rasmussen): Sen. Al Franken (D) 49, Mike McFadden (R) 41
MT-Sen (Gravis—R): Steve Daines (R) 54, Amanda Curtis (D) 41
NC-Sen (National Research—R): Sen. Kay Hagan (D) 46, Thom Tillis (R) 41, Sean Haugh (L) 4
NH-Sen (ARG): Jeanne Shaheen (D) 53, Scott Brown (R) 43
NH-Sen (New England College): Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) 47, Scott Brown (R) 47
NJ-Sen (Quinnipiac): Sen. Cory Booker (D) 51, Jeff Bell (R) 40
SC-Sen-A (Winthrop): Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) 46, Brad Hutto (D) 28, Thomas Ravenel (I) 8
SC-Sen-B (Winthrop): Sen. Tim Scott (R) 52, Joyce Dickerson (D) 32
SD-Sen (PPP—D): Mike Rounds (R) 35, Rick Weiland (D) 28, Larry Pressler (I) 24
TX-Sen (Texas Lyceum): Sen. John Cornyn (R) 48, David Alameel (D) 30
WV-Sen (Rasmussen): Shelley Moore Capito (R) 50, Natalie Tennant (D) 39
AR-Gov (Rasmussen): Asa Hutchinson (R) 46, Mike Ross (D) 42
CO-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) 50, Bob Beauprez (R) 46
FL-Gov (0ptimus—R): Charlie Crist (D) 41, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 40, Adrian Wyllie (L) 11
FL-Gov (SurveyUSA): Charlie Crist (D) 46, Gov. Rick Scott (R) 40, Adrian Wyllie (I) 8
IA-Gov (Gravis—R): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 51, Jack Hatch (D) 43
IA-Gov (PPP—D): Gov. Terry Branstad (R) 50, Jack Hatch (D) 36
IL-Gov (Battleground Polling): Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 43, Bruce Rauner (R) 43
IL-Gov (Communication Express—R): Bruce Rauner (R) 43, Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 37
IL-Gov (Fabrizio Lee—R): Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 41, Bruce Rauner (R) 39, Chad Grimm (L) 5
IL-Gov (Rasmussen): Gov. Pat Quinn (D) 44, Bruce Rauner (R) 42
KS-Gov (Suffolk): Paul Davis (D) 46, Gov. Sam Brownback (R) 42
MA-Gov (MassINC): Martha Coakley (D) 44, Charlie Baker (R) 41
MD-Gov (Gonzales Research): Anthony Brown (D) 47, Larry Hogan (R) 43
MI-Gov (EPIC-MRA): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 45, Mark Schauer (D) 39
MI-Gov (Lake Research—D): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 41, Mark Schauer (D) 40
MI-Gov (Mitchell Research): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 46, Mark Schauer (D) 42
MI-Gov (Target Insyght): Gov. Rick Snyder (R) 41, Mark Schauer (D) 40
NH-Gov (ARG): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 55, Walt Havenstein (R) 40
NH-Gov (New England College): Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) 48, Walt Havenstein (R) 44
OH-Gov (Quinnipiac): Gov. John Kasich (R) 57, Ed FitzGerald (D) 35
OK-Gov (Clarity Campaigns—D): Gov. Mary Fallin (R) 47, Joe Dorman (D) 45
PA-Gov (Robert Morris Univ.): Tom Wolf (D) 50, Gov. Tom Corbett (R) 29
SC-Gov (Crantford Research—D): Gov. Nikki Haley (R) 41, Vincent Sheheen (D) 37, Tom Ervin (I) 7
SC-Gov (Winthrop): Gov. Nikki Haley (R) 44, Vincent Sheheen (D) 34, Tom Ervin (I) 4
TX-Gov (Texas Lyceum): Greg Abbott (R) 49, Wendy Davis (D) 40
WI-Gov (Marquette Law School): Gov. Scott Walker (D) 50, Mary Burke (R) 45
CA-03 (Moore Information—R): Rep. John Garamendi (D) 45, Dan Logue (R) 39
IA-04 (DFM Research—D): Rep. Steve King (R) 46, Jim Mowrer (D) 43
IL-12 (We Ask America—R): Mike Bost (R) 45, Rep. Bill Enyart (D) 40, Paula Bradshaw (G) 6
IL-13 (We Ask America—R): Rep. Rodney Davis (R) 51, Ann Callis (D) 38
MA-06 (Emerson College Polling Society): Richard Tisei (R) 41, Seth Moulton (D) 39
MN-08 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner—D): Rep. Rick Nolan (D) 48, Stewart Mills (R) 37, Skip Sandman (G) 7
MT-AL (Gravis—R): Ryan Zinke (R) 51, John Lewis (D) 41
NC-02 (SurveyUSA): Rep. Renee Ellmers (R) 47, Clay Aiken (D) 39
NH-01 (New England College): Frank Guinta (R) 51, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 39
NH-02 (New England College): Rep. Anne Kuster (D) 47, Marilinda Garcia (R) 45
NJ-02 (Stockton Polling Institute): Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R) 47, William Hughes Jr. (D) 42
NJ-03 (DCCC IVR—D): Aimee Belgard (D) 43, Tom MacArthur (R) 42
NY-21 (Harper—R): Elise Stefanik (R) 45, Aaron Woolf (D) 37, Matt Funicello (G) 8
VA-10 (Tarrance Group—R): Barbara Comstock (R) 46, John Foust (D) 34
VA-10 (Victoria Research—D): Barbara Comstock (R) 41, John Foust (D) 39
WA-04 (Polling Company—R): Clint Didier (R) 35, Dan Newhouse (R) 33
As promised, today we continue our look at the veracity of this whole "GOP wave" narrative that has been hard to ignore, as of late.
On Tuesday, we looked and saw that there while there has been movement in the GOP direction in most (9 out of 11) of the top-tier Senate races, that movement has been relatively modest. While it is definitely not something that is going to be celebrated in the hallways of the DSCC, it just doesn't quite seem like some kind of tsunami election that is going to relegate Democrats to the ash heap for the foreseeable future. As I've noted several times, it looks like a cruddy cycle, owed largely to a cruddy map and having to defend a lot of seats that were won in a very good Democratic year.
Our look at the gubernatorial races would also seem to bear this out. As we did with the Senate races on Tuesday, let's look at the simple polling averages in the marginally competitive races for governor (defined, for our purposes, as races where the Daily Kos Election Outlook projects between a 5-95 chance of Democratic victory). In the current analysis, that is a total of 17 different gubernatorial contests (almost half of the entire roster—a testament to how competitive the field is this cycle). However, one of them (Rhode Island) was not polled in July or August, rendering an analysis there impossible.
What do we learn? That if anyone was planning to draw broad conclusions from the real-but-modest movement in the Senate data, they'd have a considerably harder time doing so with the gubernatorial data.
AK-Gov:
September: Walker +4.3 (3 polls)
July/August: Walker +1.0 (2 polls)
SHIFT: Independent +3.3
AR-Gov:
September: Hutchinson +4.4 (7 polls)
July/August: Hutchinson +2.1 (7 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +2.3
AZ-Gov:
September: Ducey +3.0 (3 polls)
July/August: Ducey/Duval Tied (2 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +3.0
CO-Gov:
September: Hickenlooper +0.4 (8 polls)
July/August: Hickenlooper +2.0 (7 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +1.6
CT-Gov:
September: Foley +2.5 (2 polls)
July/August: Foley +5.2 (5 polls)
SHIFT: Democrats +2.7
FL-Gov:
September: Scott +0.8 (12 polls)
July/August: Scott +1.5 (12 polls)
SHIFT: Democrats +0.7
GA-Gov:
September: Deal +1.6 (7 polls)
July/August: Deal +0.5 (10 polls)
SHIFT: Republican +1.1
HI-Gov:
September: Ige +2.3 (3 polls)
July/August: Aiona +7.0 (1 poll)
SHIFT: Democrats +9.3
IL-Gov:
September: Rauner +0.4 (9 polls)
July/August: Rauner +6.9 (10 polls)
SHIFT: Democrats +6.5
KS-Gov:
September: Davis +2.7 (6 polls)
July/August: Davis +2.5 (6 polls)
SHIFT: Democrats +0.2
MA-Gov:
September: Coakley +3.0 (10 polls)
July/August: Coakley +7.2 (13 polls)
SHIFT: Republicans +4.2
MD-Gov:
September: Brown +9.0 (2 polls)
July/August: Brown +9.7 (3 polls)
SHIFT: Republicans +0.7
ME-Gov:
September: Michaud +1.2 (5 polls)
July/August: Michaud +3.0 (2 polls*)
SHIFT: Republicans +1.8
(*)—Excludes a YouGov poll that inexplicably failed to include Eliot Cutler.
MI-Gov:
September: Snyder +2.3 (13 polls)
July/August: Snyder +3.7 (12 polls)
SHIFT: Democrats +1.4
OK-Gov:
September: Fallin +10.0 (2 polls)
July/August: Fallin +11.3 (4 polls)
SHIFT: Democrats +1.3
WI-Gov:
September: Walker +0.8 (6 polls)
July/August: Burke +0.2 (5 polls)
SHIFT: Republicans +1.0
So, what to make of this? If you can read a huge surge of momentum for
either party here, you are looking awfully hard. Of the 16 states noted here, 8 gubernatorial battles have moved towards the GOP, while 8 races have moved away from the GOP. What's more: there are only a small handful of races that moved by anything more than an incremental margin. And the ones that did (Illinois and Massachusetts, in particular—Hawaii really has too small a sample size to add it into the mix) moved in opposite directions.
If you look at the net gain/loss picture to detect your waves, the gubernatorial races are essentially a wash. Our own Daily Kos Election Outlook has been remarkably consistent at forecasting that the Democrats are a very slight favorite to pick up statehouses, and only modestly, at that. Almost always through the life of the Outlook, the most common outcome has been anywhere between a wash and a Democratic gain of two governorships. Nothing about that screams "wave", in either direction.
On Tuesday, we conclude our look at the "wave" narrative, as we take a cursory examination (which, with our limited pool of data, is all we can really do) at the battles in the U.S. House.