Republican David Perdue
Leading Off:
• GA-Sen: If you're planning to run for office ten years from now, be very, very, very careful about what you say in your next deposition, because it'll probably come back to haunt you. Learning that the hard way is Republican David Perdue. Back in 2005, in the wake of his short stint as the CEO of Pillowtex (probably long before the idea of running for Senate was a twinkle in his eye) Perdue said, "Yeah, I spent most of my career doing that," where the "that" was OUTSOURCING.
There's a difference between a mundane gaffe that just sounds like you're having a bad day, and the kind of gaffe that just reinforces the negative perceptions that your opponents are already lobbing at you. Democratic rival Michelle Nunn and her allies have already been working hard to portray Perdue as a heartless vulture capitalist, running spots like this one accusing Perdue of getting rich off of other people's misery. If Perdue's newly unearthed moment of candor about outsourcing doesn't find its way into a Democratic ad or two by Tuesday, I'll be shocked. Laura Clawson has more on the debacle.
3Q Fundraising:
• SD-Sen: Larry Pressler (I) $40,000 raised, $200,000 loaned, $151,000 on-hand
• AL-Gov: (Entire campaign) Parker Griffith (D) $347,000 raised, $392,000 loaned; Robert Bently (R-inc) $6 million raised. I'd suggest the Democratic candidate talk to more donors, but Parker Griffith can't schmooze.
• OH-Gov: (September) Ed Fitzgerald (D) $55,000 raised; John Kasich (R-Inc) $1.5 million raised. No, Fitz's numbers aren't a typo. He's dead, Jim.
• MA-06: Seth Moulton (D) $700,000 raised, $350,000 on hand
• VA-10: John Foust (D) $1 million raised
• Crossroads: (September) American Crossroads (R) $11 million raised
Senate:
• IA-Sen: How is Bruce Braley losing to this???
The question was: "Will you support legislation to nullify ObamaCare and authorize state and local law enforcement to arrest federal officials attempting to implement the unconstitutional health care scheme known as ObamaCare?" Ernst answered that question as "yes."
Auuuuggggghhhh!!!
• Polling: A few mangy-looking Senate polls:
• GA-Sen: InsiderAdvantage: David Perdue (R): 47, Michelle Nunn (D): 43 (Sept.: 50-40 Perdue).
• GA-Sen: Rasmussen: Perdue: 46, Nunn: 42 (Sept.: 46-41 Perdue).
• KS-Sen: Gravis Marketing (R): Greg Orman (I): 47, Pat Roberts (R-inc): 40.
Gubernatorial:
• MA-Gov: SocialSphere is out with its latest tracking poll, and they find Republican Charlie Baker leading Democrat Martha Coakley 39-36. A week ago Baker led 40-38. An absurd 21 percent are undecided, which is somehow higher than last week's already huge 18 percent mark.
Still, there isn't really any doubt that this race is close right now. HuffPost Pollster also gives us a good visual representation of where this contest is:
MA-Gov treadlines
In the last few days there have been
five polls, including this one: Coakley's best poll gives her a 3-point lead, while Baker's best one (this very SocialSphere poll) gives him the 3-point edge.
• OK-Gov: Republican Gov. Mary Fallin hasn't responded to a new internal from her Democratic challenger, Joe Dorman, showing her with a slim 47-45 edge, but the independent SoonerPoll.com does have some new numbers finding Fallin with a healthier 50-36 edge. However, that's actually a bit tighter than Sooner's last survey from early September, which had Fallin up 50-32. I'm not sure what to make of the firm in general, though: They identify themselves as "Oklahoma's only nonpartisan public opinion pollster," but it's hard to take that at face value after this embarrassing exchange.
• WI-Gov: We've experienced an epidemic of pollsters recalling or squelching wonky results lately, and you won't be surprised to learn that the latest outbreak of botch-ulism comes from Republican outfit Gravis Marketing, one of the worst firms in the nation. Gravis says it's clawing back its most recent Wisconsin poll—one that showed Democrat Mary Burke rather improbably leading GOP Gov. Scott Walker 50-45—"due to a skew in Milwaukee respondents," whatever that might mean.
Even more amazingly, Gravis tested a matchup for the Wisconsin treasurer's race ... between two candidates who had both been defeated in their party's primaries. How on earth do you manage to do that?
This follows New England College's ugly mulligan on their borked New Hampshire House polling just a few days earlier; Civitas retracting then re-releasing a "corrected" version of a SurveyUSA state Senate poll in North Carolina a week ago; and, most notoriously, Mitchell Research refusing to publish a Michigan survey because they didn't like how the numbers looked.
There are some analysts out there looking to make their bones by desperately trying to find flaws in the work of solid, reputable pollsters without ever really drawing blood. It's such a waste of time and resources, because there are a ton of crappy pollsters out there who merit far more scrutiny. In fact, the skeptics can get started with this list right here.
• Polling: And some scraggly gubernatorial surveys, too:
• GA-Gov: InsiderAdvantage: Nathan Deal (R-inc): 44, Jason Carter (D): 43 (Sept.: 44-40 Deal).
• KS-Gov: Fort Hays State Univ.: Paul Davis (D): 39, Sam Brownback (R-inc): 37, Keen Umbehr (Lib): 9.
• KS-Gov: Gravis Marketing (R): Davis 48: Brownback: 40.
• NM-Gov: Gravis Marketing (R): Susana Martinez (R-inc): 48, Gary King (D): 44.
• PA-Gov: Robert Morris Univ.: Tom Wolf (D): 57, Tom Corbett (R-inc): 34 (Aug.: 56-25 Wolf).
• TX-Gov: Rasmussen: Greg Abbot (R): 51, Wendy Davis (D): 40 (Aug.: 48-40 Abbott).
House:
• AZ-01: The GOP group American Action Network has released a new poll from North Star Opinion Research, and they give Republican Andy Tobin a 48-42 lead over Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. This isn't too different from a mid-September Tobin poll from the Tarrance Group that gave the GOP a 51-43 lead.
However, both polls seem to share one glaring flaw. North Star's sample is only 4 percent Native American, while Tarrance's was 6 percent. However, as we've pointed out in the past, about 25 percent of the district identifies as Native American. Yes, Native American voter turnout tends to be low, but not this low. Still, it would be encouraging to see Democrats release a contradictory poll. This is a 50-48 Romney seat and both parties are spending big here, so Team Blue can hardly just laugh off these numbers.
We took a look at North Star's record, but they don't have much of one. In 2012 they didn't release any polls in October or November, but they did have two late September entries. In MA-06 they found Republican Richard Tisei leading Democratic Rep. John Tierney 45-37; Tierney won 48-47. Not great, but nowhere near as bad as their MI-09 poll. North Star found Democratic Rep. Sander Levin leading his Some Dude Republican opponent only 44-42 in a safe Democratic district: Levin ended up winning 62-34, about the margin anyone but North Star would have predicted.
The group also has a limited primary record. In late July of 2014, North Star released a poll of the Tennessee Republican Senate primary on behalf of Sen. Lamar Alexander showing him beating Joe Carr 53-24. About a week later Alexander won only 50-41, giving North Star a 20-point miss. Not the most impressive performance ever.
• NH-01: The other day, the DCCC launched a new ad attacking Republican ex-Rep. Frank Guinta over mystery money he loaned his first campaign for Congress back in 2010—money whose provenance has never been explained. If you didn't follow the story four years ago, though, Dean Barker very helpfully takes us down memory lane to recount the full saga.
It turns out that Guinta gave his campaign at least $245,000 (the amount mentioned in the ad), and perhaps as much as $355,000, according to Barker's totals. But Guinta's professional career had been only modestly successful at best, and his personal financial disclosures were quite clear: He didn't have that kind of money lying around, and it would have been illegal for someone else to loan him the funds. So what did Guinta do? He simply amended his disclosure forms to say, oh, yeah, I forgot about a bank account that had a balance of $250,000 to $500,000.
Absolutely no one believed that b.s.—including members of Guinta's own party. Ex. Rep. Jeb Bradley (who had represented the seat Guinta wound up winning that year and is now looking to reclaim) called on Guinta to drop out of the race at the time, and former state party chair Fergus Cullen said earlier this year that Guinta is just "one subpoena away from a full-blown scandal." So where is that subpoena? The matter was referred to what Barker rightly calls the dysfunctional-by-design FEC, which hasn't done dick-all, and neither the IRS or the U.S. Attorney appears to have ever picked up the thread.
As Cullen says, Guinta could clear all this up simply by releasing his bank account statements, though of course he hasn't. But if federal investigators refuse to do their jobs, at least the DCCC hasn't forgotten. Hopefully their efforts will keep Guinta out of office, even if he actually deserves a much sterner penalty.
• NJ-02: In a very surprising turn of events, Stockton College finds veteran GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo, who had long been entrenched in his swingy south Jersey district, with just a 44-38 lead on his Democratic challenger, Bill Hughes, Jr. This is a seat Democrats would love to take some day (Obama won it 54-45), but it's always seemed like they'd have to wait until LoBo retired. Reflecting that consensus, outside groups haven't spent a penny here this cycle, but perhaps this poll will change a few minds.
Unfortunately, one group who should have reacted positively to these numbers has done exactly the wrong thing. The League of Conservation Voters, which is usually a reliable Democrat ally, decided now would be the perfect time to endorse LoBiondo. LoBiondo has a feeble 63 percent lifetime score on the LCV's scorecard, which the group admits is good if you only look at Republicans. Pathetically, LoBiondo scored just 25 percent in 2013 while the average New Jersey Democrat managed an 85. Hughes would undoubtedly put together a solid if not excellent record.
But here's why this is really colossally idiotic: Does the LCV really think Republicans should remain in charge of the House? Do they think John Boehner's stewardship is actually good for the environment? Will he ever lift a finger to help turn back the tide of manmade climate change? The answer is "no fucking way" to all of these questions. Endorsing a few Republicans to preserve the phony fig-leaf of bipartisanship is an embarrassing gesture when so much is at stake, and the LCV ought to know better.
• NY-11: My headline: "Humane Society Endorses Congressman Who Threatened to Throw Reporter off Balcony, Break Him in Half."
Other Races:
• NY State Senate: Man, these Siena polls of New York State Senate races have really been sucky for Democrats. Out in Long Island's 3rd District, an open seat thanks to GOP state Sen. Lee Zeldin's run for Congress, Republican Tom Croci is crushing Democrat Adrienne Esposito by a 56-29 margin. Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Democrats in general are a lot less popular here than they are up-Island: Cuomo's beating Republican Rob Astorino by "only" 51-38. The other day, Siena showed Democrats getting killed in the 7th District, also on Long Island.
• Ballot Measures: For reasons that are probably complex or even unknowable, the number of statewide ballot measures nationwide this year is at a record low. Only 148 measures will go before voters, the fewest since 1986 and a huge decline from a peak of 226 in 2006. Still, there's plenty to chew over. You can find a comprehensive list of every measure at (where else?) Ballotpedia, and the Washington Post also has an interactive map featuring some of the more notable ones.
Grab Bag:
• Midterms: Hillary Clinton is seriously ramping up her campaign schedule as we approach Election Day, and there are just too many stops to mention, so click through to find out where she's headed. You won't be surprised that Iowa and New Hampshire are on her list.
Ads & Independent Expenditures:
• AK-Sen: The U.S. Chamber of Commerce stars Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. Paul doesn't say anything beyond the usual "Democratic Sen. Mark Begich is a libural, vote for Republican Dan Sullivan." However, with Libertarian Mark Fish scooping up some voters Sullivan could use, it's no surprise that the Chamber brought Paul, the crown prince of the Ayn Rand wing of the GOP, in to help.
• AR-Sen: The Emergency Committee for Israel portrays Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor as weak against foreign threats, while promoting Republican Tom Cotton's military service. This is far from the first time the group has heaped out some good old-fashioned fear mongering, though they haven't had much luck when it comes to actually winning elections.
• CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters throws another $517,000 against Republican Cory Gardner. Democratic Sen. Mark Udall addresses the camera in his spot, calling for policies that respect women's choices and give them the opportunity to succeed.
• IA-Sen: The DSCC spends $325,000 against Republican Joni Ernst.
• IA-Sen, NC-Sen: Oh, this is awesome. The group Conservative War Chest is up with two more editions of their infamous Gang of Five ads, which manage to cram in every conservative conspiracy theory about Obama this side of birtherism. If you haven't seen them yet you owe it to yourself to watch: Here's their spot in Iowa.
• KS-Sen: Republican Sen. Pat Roberts airs yet another spot linking independent Greg Orman to Obama as closely as he possibly can. This one has a clip of Obama saying that his policies are on the ballot this year, before the narrator tells the audience that Orman is Obama's candidate. This time the ad doesn't bother to argue why a vote for Orman is a vote for Obama.
• KY-Sen: Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell ties Democrat Alison Grimes to Obama, with that clip of Obama saying his policies are on the ballot. Expect to see this clip in a lot of GOP ads for the rest of the cycle.
• LA-Sen: With it looking very likely that no candidate in this contest will win the majority in November they need to win outright, it's no surprise that groups are already preparing for the December runoff between Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu and Republican Bill Cassidy. On the GOP side, Ending Spending has reserved $2.4 million while the NRA has shelled out $1 million. Expect a lot more reservations from both sides in the coming weeks.
• MI-Sen: Ending Spending shells out another $643,000 against Democrat Gary Peters.
• NC-Sen: Republican Thom Tillis continues to argue that Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan did nothing to stop ISIS from growing. The ad features a veteran, who is also the mother of a Marine, arguing that Hagan went along with Obama as he underestimated ISIS. On the Democratic side The League of Conservation Voters spends $789,000.
• NH-Sen: Ending Spending is the latest group to invoke ISIS in their ads. They argue that Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen hasn't shown up for critical meetings on national security.
• VA-Sen: Republican Ed Gillespie.
• Senate Majority PAC: Pro-Democratic expenditures.
• CO-Gov: The DGA-backed Make Colorado Great goes after Republican Bob Beauprez on abortion and birth control.
• FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist continues to hit Republican Gov. Rick Scott on his old company's Medicare fraud, while the NRA hits Crist on (guess what) guns.
• MD-Gov: The DGA recently announced they would spend another $400,000 here on top of the $750,000 they already spent against Republican Larry Hogan, a sign that this contest isn't as secure for Democrat Anthony Brown as they'd like it to be. The group's new spot portrays Hogan as a reckless conservative out of step with this blue state.
• ME-Gov: The DGA-backed Maine Forward calls Republican Gov. Paul LePage an embarrassment. It's a pretty good greatest hits collection for LePage: It reminds viewers that the governor twice compared the IRS to the Nazis, called legislators idiots, and told the NAACP to kiss his butt. The spot then briefly praises Democrat Mike Michaud as a consensus builder.
• WI-Gov: Democrat Mary Burke emphasizes her business background.
• AZ-02: The DCCC spends $134,000 against Republican Martha McSally.
• CA-31: Democrat Pete Aguilar goes after Republican Paul Chabot on education. This race has been viewed as a likely Democratic pickup but the DCCC and now Aguilar have been airing spots against Chabot: Maybe they're just being cautious, but it could indicate this race isn't in the bag yet.
• FL-02: Two spots from Democrat Gwen Graham (here and here). In the first, Graham calls for changing Obamacare so it works, pushing back on Republican attempts to paint her as a blind Obamacare supporter. The second has Graham calling for some common sense in this "messed up Congress."
• IL-13: Republican Rep. Rodney Davis emphasizes his work helping veterans find jobs.
• NH-02: Republican Marilinda Garcia decries the national debt and argues she'll be an independent leader.
• NY-04: Democrat Kathleen Rice.
• TN-04: Democrat Lenda Sherrell.
• WV-03: House Majority PAC portrays Republican Evan Jenkins as not caring about miners and seniors.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, with additional contributions from Jeff Singer, David Jarman, Steve Singiser, and Taniel.