Maine Democrat Michael Michaud, soon to be the nation's first openly gay governor.
To the right is our polling-based
electoral outlook for governor races as of yesterday. I have circled the Dems' best pickup opportunities in blue, the GOP's in red. If the election were held today, and the polls were dead-on accurate (not something I'd bet on anymore), Democrats would pick up five governorships, including ones in important 2016 states Pennsylvania and Florida. Republicans would pick up two, Arkansas and Illinois. Not much of a wave year, is it? But of course, there is more to these races than just poll numbers.
Pennsylvania is a done deal, and has been so for years now. Kansas we've written about plenty. But Kansas! It still seems crazy.
Florida continues to remain neck-and-neck in polling, with both candidates averaging in the low-ish 40s. Normally, I'd be able to say "the incumbent polling so low spells trouble!", but Crist was already governor for two terms, so it's kind of like two incumbents going at each other. I also can't look to the state's partisan leanings, since Florida is about as 50-50 as you can get. And without a Senate contest, Crist can't benefit from the DSCC's unprecedented investment in ground organizing. This one will come down to the wire.
Alaska is in play thanks to a stunning deal between the Democratic and independent candidates to join forces. Since then, Republican incumbent Gov. Sean Parnell remains stuck in the low 40s.
Meanwhile, the only reason Maine is still in question is because of the same spoiler third-party independent that gave Republican Gov. Paul LePage a sub-40 "victory" in 2010. The race remains tight, but Democrats appear to have the upper hand.
Then there's the trio races of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona—all of which continue to favor Republicans, but only barely. In Michigan, incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Snyder appears to have the slight lead, but is stuck in the mid-40s in a Democratic state. If our people turn out, we win it. (But will they turn out?)
More below the fold, although now would be a good time to give a few bucks to some of our endorsed gubernatorial candidates. These races won't be won by passive observers!
In Wisconsin, probably the most bitter, partisanized race in the country, Gov. Scott Walker holds a narrow lead, but unlike Michigan, the polling puts him much closer to 50 percent, averaging just above 48. But Democrat Mary Burke is nipping at his heels. This one will go down to the bitter end.
And then there's Arizona, a race that has flown under the radar. Check out the polling: the Republican candidate for this open seat holds a 43-41 lead over his Democratic rival, Fred DuVal, with an abnormally large number of undecided voters.
Georgia's Jason Carter doesn't just trail by a real margin, but must also contend with a December runoff when Democratic turnout would suffer even more than it will in November. So it's definitely in long-shot territory. But there are two more states I didn't circle in that category—both the Oklahoma and Idaho races, where the Republican Governor's Association has been running ads bolstering their incumbent governors. In Oklahoma! And Idaho!
So that's a lot of Republican seats in play, despite it being an off-year election with low Democratic base-voter performance and an unpopular president dragging the party down. But where are Republicans playing offense?
Arkansas is their strongest bet, because it's Arkansas. Democrat Mike Ross is trailing handily, and while he might benefit from the DSCC's ground game in the effort to save embattled Sen. Mark Pryor, Ross is running behind the incumbent senator.
Illinois used to look like Pennsylvania in reverse—an unpopular governor (this one a Democrat) getting trounced in the polling. And then something happened—people took a look at the Republican in the race ("Mitt Romney with none of the charisma," as Jed Lewison once said), and that was that. This then happened:
The technical political science term for that is "holy fucking shit!" Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn is still stuck way back in the low 40s, but the poor man's Mitt Romney is doing even worse in this Democratic state. I'm now confident Democrats will hold my origin state.
In the Republican long-shot categories are Colorado, where the polling has literally been all over the place (and where polling has consistently understated Democratic performance the last several cycles), Massachusetts, where Martha Coakley is once again endangering a seat that should by all rights be an easy hold, and Connecticut, where, like Illinois, Republicans are threatening to rescue an unpopular incumbent Democratic governor with an even more unpopular challenger.
All in all, a net five-seat pickup in governorships is not implausible, and would put a serious crimp on any pro-GOP narratives, even if Republicans ride their geographic advantages to a Senate majority.
A gain of five seats would give Democrats a clear 26-24 advantage in governorships. And while that would reap benefits in terms of state policy, it would also give Democrats a leg up on the end-of-decade redistricting battles in key gerrymandered states like Florida, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (We'll have to take care of business in Ohio in 2018.)
So yes, we're competitive, and yes, we can make big gains. But we need people to engage financially and with getting the vote out.
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