The Kansas City Royals just won their first pennant since 1985. Could they also help Sen. Pat Roberts (R) win re-election?
On Tuesday, the San Francisco Giants will face the Kansas City Royals in the first game of the 2014 World Series. A lot is at stake, and not just on the diamond. Baseball's playoffs could affect at least one U.S. House race, a key gubernatorial battle, and perhaps even control of the U.S. Senate.
No, I'm not arguing that a Giants victory means the Democrats will keep the Senate, or that if the American League dominates, so will Republicans—nothing superstitious or silly like that. Rather, the World Series provides campaigns the opportunity to advertise to a much larger—and more in-tune—audience than usual. Viewers are much more likely to watch major sporting events live, which means they're less apt to record them and fast-forward through the ads.
Back in September, in an article exploring this topic, Roll Call's Abby Livingston explained that baseball viewers tend to be disproportionally white and male. Republicans will be looking to get as many votes out of this generally conservative demographic as possible, while Democrats will be trying to make some inroads with them before Election Day.
Of course, anyone looking to run spots in Northern California or the Kansas City area will need to pay a premium if they want to advertise during a World Series game. Airing a 30-second spot nationally costs a cool $470,000. Locally targeted ads cost a lot less but are still far from cheap, so many campaigns and outside groups will decide that they can't afford the price tag. However, others will spend what it takes to get their message out.
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And there are a number of key races in both media markets, so head below the fold for a close-up look at how the World Series may impact the 2014 elections.
Kansas:
While the Royals play across the border in Missouri, they have a huge fan base in the Sunflower State. According to a recent Public Policy Polling survey, 69 percent of Kansas voters identify themselves as Royals fans, and that number has probably only increased now that the team is in the World Series for the first time since 1985. An April analysis from the New York Times also finds that Royals fans stretch across almost the entire state:
It's a good bet that World Series viewership will be strongest in the Kansas City media market, where about
one-third of the state lives, but well-funded campaigns can also target the rest of the state during the games.
The U.S. Senate race is the highest-profile election in the state, and perhaps the one where advertising during a game can have the biggest impact. Republican Sen. Pat Roberts was expecting an easy re-election but he's been damaged by revelations that he barely spends any time in Kansas. Roberts faces wealthy independent Greg Orman, who has been running as a bipartisan problem solver. (The Democratic nominee dropped out of the race last month to help Orman.) Orman claims he will caucus with whichever party holds the majority in the Senate, but it's an open question what he'll do if he gets to decide control of the chamber. With so many seats up the air, it's not implausible that Orman could end up determining which party runs the Senate.
October polling has shown anything from a 10-point Orman advantage to a 5-point Roberts lead, and some recent surveys have found a tightening contest here. Roberts and his allies have been flooding the airwaves, portraying Orman as a closet Democrat and ally of President Obama. Obama is very unpopular in Kansas, and Orman cannot afford for these attacks to stick. Orman was virtually unknown until a few months ago, and Republicans have been trying to re-define him in their own image. While Orman is wealthy enough to fight back on his own, it's not clear if he's willing to spend the personal money he'd need to effectively respond.
As of Oct. 9, the GOP has reserved $3.3 million in airtime while Orman only has $1.3 million booked. Some wealthy donors have hinted that they'll get involved on Orman's side, but they have yet to spend anything like the Republicans, and national Democrats are unlikely to get involved lest they add fodder to GOP broadsides. The Republicans' attacks appear to be working. PPP found over the last month that Orman has lost much of his lead and has seen his favorability rating tumble.
The World Series gives Roberts' well-funded allies the chance to press their financial advantage and hit Orman in front of a huge audience. If Orman is willing to part with some his own money or if any outside groups come to his aid, he can push back. However, if the GOP monopolizes World Series commercials with anti-Orman messaging, he runs a serious risk of being caricatured and losing whatever advantage he may have now. If Orman and his allies are serious about spending big, now's the time to do it.
The gubernatorial race is also competitive, but the spending gap is less severe. Republican Gov. Sam Brownback is in danger largely because of his brutal budget cuts, and he faces a close race with Democrat Paul Davis. As of late September, the GOP had a 55-45 percent spending advantage, but the good news for Davis is that national groups are investing here and are unlikely to let him get severely outspent at a critical time. Unlike in the U.S. Senate race, there's less of a chance that the Republicans will dominate World Series ads.
Kansas has four Republican House members, and they are all seeking re-election. Three are safe bets to win, but in recent days, the GOP has indicated that they're particularly worried about 2nd District Rep. Lynn Jenkins and are looking to bolster her financially. However, as of the end of September, Jenkins held a $1.6 million to $148,000 cash-on-hand advantage over Democrat Margie Wakefield, which means the incumbent can probably afford to advertise during the World Series while Wakefield can't. National Democrats and their allies haven't given any indication that they'll get involved here, which could let Jenkins press her monetary advantage.
California:
Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown is safe for re-election, and the state has no Senate race this year. There are a number of competitive congressional districts but many are located in Southern California, far away from the Giants' fan base, as you can see in the Times' map:
There is one big exception, though. Freshman Democrat Ami Bera is defending the 7th District, a swingy suburban Sacramento seat, and both parties are spending big here. In recent weeks, more outside groups have gotten involved on behalf of Republican Doug Ose, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently diverted resources from a safer seat in Connecticut to protect Bera.
Sacramento is about an hour-and-a-half away from San Francisco and as Roll Call noted back in September, there are plenty of Giants fans there. In fact, the Times found that almost all of California north of Bakersfield is loyal to the team, and the Sacramento area is indeed also part of Giants Nation. Both parties will likely advertise during the World Series, especially if the other side does so. Bera holds a big $815,000 to $271,000 cash-on-hand advantage, but Ose is personally very wealthy and has already spent $1 million of his own money on this race. If he's willing to open up his checkbook, he could readily air some World Series spots.
Again, airing ads during the World Series is pricey, but it gives both parties a rare chance to speak to a large number of voters when they actually might be listening. If one side is running ads, the other side may feel like they need to respond, if only to mitigate its opponent's edge. So it's a very good bet that baseball fans in Kansas and Sacramento can expect to see quite a few political advertisements during the final days of October.
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The World Series may go for up to seven games, but we only have one chance to win in November. Please give today.