Do I fear Ebola? No. Panicking about it is so dumb it makes the virus look smart. [Louis Gohmert remains near/at the bottom.]
Before I go on, I need to make clear that if we don't take the threat seriously, Ebola could become a big problem. If your car is headed for a tree but you don't use the brakes because you don't want to replace the brake pads, you are an idiot and it will end badly. Rich countries, the UN/WHO and countries like India, Cuba and the Philippines that have medical expertise need to step up, work together and figure out the best way to fight this thing. No argument from me about any of that. In fact, if anyone has a good idea about who I should be figuratively shouting at, tell me.
Having said that, join me bellow that orange thing that eerily resembles a virus to hear my arguments for why we shouldn't be all 'oh noes' and 'zomg'...
I'll be in Africa on three seperate trips before May rolls around.
I won't be visiting Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone (although I have before), but even if I were planning to, let alone needed to... well, lets look at the numbers: approximately 5,000 deaths in countries with a population of 17m+.
So if you lived in - lived in, not visited - one of those three countries, your chances of dying were, up until now, less than 1 in 3000. A 1 in 3000 chance of losing your life: at the heart of the epidemic. If someone tells me there is a 1 in 3000 chance something will happen, my first reaction is not fear or panic. It's more likely, "Do I need insurance? And is there a way I could reduce that risk?" I would not hide in my Liberian house or my Sierra Leonian basement.
Or let's math out the transmission to other countries. One guy flew to Nigeria, one to the US (where there was a huge systems failure), and someone crossed into Senegal. In Spain a nurse was infected who had tended to a priest who was known to have been infected before he was repatriated. 8 died in Nigeria, one in the US, one each in Spain and Senegal. 11 out of 7 billion plus.To put that into perspective: 9 people are killed by nonvenemous insects/arthropods a year. 5600 or so die by drowning. If you live in the United States a ladder is more likely to kill you than Ebola. Much, much more likely. I am not hiding from ladders.
But maybe if you compare mortality in Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guine to what it would be if they had as many people as the US, that might give a better idea of what's going on. Sure, it might, let's go to the stats...
So scaling up from a population there to a US population: 17m x 18 = 306m. 5000 fatalities due to Ebola in way worse circumstances than US residents would likely face, times 18, well let's call it 95,000. So about the same as flu/pneumonia and suicide combined. Or say motor vehicle deaths, about a third of that adjusted Ebola rate, plus another 16,000 or so deaths from 'special' land transport like industrial and agricultural vehicles as well as ATVs and you are over half way there. Add in falls and the like, and we have another Adjusted Ebola Equivalent. And then some.
I haven't really talked about the big killers - apart from accidents, many, but by no means all, have been mentioned - more than a million a year for heart disease and cancer, a quarter million plus for chronic lower respiratory disease and stroke, and another quarter million because of Alzheimer's, diabetes and kidney diseases. So the the causes of death I've mentioned in this paragraph are about 250 times more likely to kill you than if you were living in Liberia, Guinea or Sierra Leone where Ebola has a hold.
So it's more likely you should fear that cheeseburger, cigarette, soda or beer than you should fear Ebola. It's not even close.
Unfortunately, neither the human brain nor the press is inclined to think or act along those lines.
Sources: CDC, National Safety Council.