DKE is not simulating a Georgia runoff because
there aren't enough pollsters putting out samples that include both a Nunn/Perdue/Swafford permutation and a permutation that's Nunn/Perdue alone. None of the five [now 6] most recent polls, for instance, have that.
.
DKE's current mashup of polls has Nunn 48.6%, Perdue 47.0% and Swanson (L) 4.4%.
Today's 29% chance of Michelle Nunn winning is the chance Nunn wins outright on Nov 4th, avoiding a runoff. Perdue's chances
as of Monday were just 13%! Nunn was at 27% then, for a 40% chance of an outright winner on Nov 4th.
29% divided by 40%, results in a 72.5% chance of Nunn winning if there's an outright winner.*
*If you assume Perdue held steady at 13%, then there's a 69% chance that Nunn's the winner IF there's an outright winner.
David Jarman, Editor of DKE, also commented:
The good news, from your perspective, is that PPP is smart enough to ask that question, and they aren't seeing a lot of dropoff. Their poll several weeks ago had it Perdue 45, Nunn 43, Swafford 5, but Perdue 48, Nunn 45 when Swafford voters were asked who their second choice was.
So it's a close race even in a possible runoff, but we really should close it out right now.
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10:36 AM PT: That PPP poll had Swanson voters, which were a tiny sub-sample, going to Perdue at 43% and to Nunn at 12%. If you use those numbers and just "add" them to the current DKE mashup, you get 49.9 for Perdue and 50.1 for Nunn.
The math:
Perdue: 47 + (4.4*.43) = 48.9
Nunn: 48.6 + (4.4*.12) = 49.1
Then divide both the results by .9802 to compensate for Swanson voters not participating in the runoff (i.e. 1-[4.4*.45]).