Some good news on this Friday:
http://www.cnn.com/...
Democrat Michelle Nunn has a slight 47%-44% edge over Republican David Perdue in the Georgia race for an open Senate seat, according to a new CNN/ORC International survey released Friday.
The three-point margin falls within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points, meaning the two candidates are statistically tied less than two weeks before Election Day.
If neither candidate garners 50% of the vote, the race heads to a January runoff.
Democrats are throwing a lot of money in Georgia, as the party hopes to thwart what's widely expected to be a strong year for Senate Republicans and their quest to take control of the Senate. The GOP needs to win a net six seats to win the majority.
Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford is pulling 5% of the vote in Georgia, keeping Nunn and Perdue from reaching the 50% threshold.
A Libertarian candidate is also peeling off votes in Georgia's contested gubernatorial race between Republican incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal and Democratic challenger, Jason Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.
The CNN/ORC poll, conducted by telephone October 19-22 with 565 likely voters, indicates Carter has a 48%-46% advantage over Deal, while Libertarian candidate Andrew Hunt gets 6% support. - CNN, 10/24/14
This is the third poll to show Nunn with a slight edge but in order to win, her and Carter need to get to the 50% mark and we may not know who won this race until January:
http://www.thedailybeast.com/...
You all know the old cliché “it’s gonna be a long election night.” Well, this one is going to be really long. Like, there’s a very much less-than-crazy chance it’ll last until January. For a reality that shocking and discombobulating, this situation has really flown well below most people’s radar, but it’s time to start focusing on it. Here’s the situation.
Georgia and Louisiana, as you probably know, are run-off states. If no candidate gets 50 percent on Election Day, there’s a later run-off between the top two finishers. The Senate races in both states are tight as a tick, with no candidate hitting 50 percent in any of the polls. In Georgia, RealClearPolitics has Michelle Nunn up literally 0.4 percent over David Perdue, 46.0 to 45.6. There’s a libertarian candidate drawing around 4 or 5 percent—she’s a recent high finisher on “America’s Next Top Model,” in fact, so let’s just say that she does not look like your typical politician, which, let’s face it, often matters more than it deserves to. So there’s every chance that neither Nunn nor Perdue hits the big five-oh.
Louisiana isn’t quite that close—RCP has the Republican, Bill Cassidy, leading Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu by 4.8 percent. But the most recent poll of the race, conducted for the Baton Rouge Fox affiliate, has Landrieu ahead of Cassidy 36 to 32 percent. Why are those numbers so low? Well, mostly due to a huge number of undecided voters, but also because, under Louisiana’s so-called “jungle primary” system, there’s a second Republican in this race, and he’s drawing 6 or so percent. So it’s virtually guaranteed that no one is hitting 50 in the old Bayou.
Louisiana, then, looks like it’s definitely going to a run-off. That will happen December 6. And Georgia appears to be headed to a run-off, too. But that wouldn’t happen until…ready?…January 6! Read that again. January 6. After the new Congress is sworn in! - The Daily Beast, 10/24/14
That's why a heavy turnout amongst African American voters is essential to Nunn and Carter's electoral success:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
Emphasizing out reach to African American voters is by no means limited to Georgia, but it's critically important in this election cycle for two reasons: First, there's been an increasingly heated fight between a Democratic-aligned organization in the state and Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R). Second, the outcome of that fight could have an immediate impact on the super-tight races for governor and U.S. Senate in the state.
The fight is between a group called the New Georgia Project, which is run by Georgia House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D), and aims to increase the number of registered voters in the state. The group has targeted minority voters recently, a growing constituency in the state. On Wednesday, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution released a new analysis that found that 30 percent of the 5.1 million active voters in the state are black. That, according to the Journal-Constitution, is almost a 67,000-person increase of black voters from 2010. White voters have declined as a portion of the total amount of active voters in the state.
Last month Kemp opened up an investigation into the New Georgia Project after, according to Kemp, getting about 100 complaints alleging voter registration fraud. The problem is that NBC News affiliate 11Alive News obtained records showing there had been only seven complaints filed of that claim.
Earlier this month The New Georgia Project, which is officially nonpartisan, filed a lawsuit with Kemp's office and the boards of elections in five counties, saying that Kemp had not processed up to 40,000 new applications to vote. Kemp has shot back that the lawsuit and the claims behind it are "frivolous." Earlier in the week the New Georgia Project settled with DeKalb county and there will be a hearing in Fulton County Superior Court on Friday.
Andra Gillespie, a political scientist at Emory University, said that Democrats increasing minority turnout could boost candidates in both the Senate race between Democrat Michelle Nunn and Republican David Perdue and the gubernatorial race between state Sen. Jason Carter (D) and incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal (R).
"If the Democrats are able to have a robust turnout among minority voters. That, along with robust turnout progressive whites, could actually make this extremely competitive," Gillespie said. But Gillespie cautioned that the move to register more minority voters — who, she said, are probably more likely to vote Democratic than Republican — is less likely to be an immediate return on investment.
"I think this strategy of trying to make sure that you go out and register as many potential Democratic voters as possible was part of a longer term strategy," Gillespie said. "Looking to 2018, looking to those demographic shifts that would favor Democrats and just making sure that you're making sure that all those potential voters become actual voters." - TPM, 10/24/14
And Obama has been helping with African American turnout:
http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/...
President Obama urged Georgia voters to get behind Senate nominee Michelle Nunn in an Atlanta radio interview, as he tried to boost turnout among Democrats in key races.
“If Michelle Nunn wins, that means that Democrats keep control of the Senate and that means we can keep doing some good work. So it is critically important to make sure that folks vote,” Obama said Monday when he called into a morning show on station WVEE-FM.
Obama made the case that high turnout would ensure Nunn’s victory while “low turnout, or just ordinary turnout” would mean defeat.
With less than two weeks to go before Election Day, a third consecutive poll showed Nunn with a slim lead over Republican David Perdue for the GOP-held seat.
Republicans seized on Obama’s comment about Nunn. “President Obama unwittingly provided the closing argument in the Georgia Senate race,” said Brook Hougesen, press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “A vote for Michelle Nunn is a vote for Barack Obama, Harry Reid and more of the same broken Washington that Georgians are sick and tired of.” - USA Today, 10/23/14
And Democrats know damn well that they will need a higher black voter turnout this year:
http://www.macon.com/...
The Democratic National Committee is using Obama's popularity among blacks in a seven-figure advertising campaign targeted at minorities and young voters. An ad targeted for black newspapers reads "GET HIS BACK" in large letters over a picture of Obama and urges readers to stand with the president by voting for Democrats. In a DNC commercial airing on radio stations popular among black listeners, an Obama speech touting his economic agenda is set to jazz and ends with a voiceover urging listeners "to stand up for our community and vote Nov. 4."
Democratic strategist Donna Brazile said a challenge for Democrats this election is that many of the most hard-fought races are in Republican-leaning states where Obama didn't compete in 2008 or 2012, so his campaign did not engage core voters. "In the closing weeks of just about every campaign that I've been involved in since the late 1970s, people worry about the black vote in the last two weeks," she said. "The problem with the two-week strategy is that it doesn't give you the kind of turnout you need."
The base voters Democrats are trying to get to the polls often don't follow mainstream news media. The White House has found that black radio is a particularly powerful motivator, looking back on the voter response during Obama's 2008 and 2012 campaigns and enrollment increases under his health care law.
Obama argues in the interviews that low black turnout in the 2010 midterms allowed the GOP tea party wave in Congress that has been blocking his agenda. The pitch is part solicitation for votes, part lecture to blacks for staying home in midterm elections when the president is not on the ballot.
Obama said Republican officials in some states are pushing legislation to make it harder to vote, but said that can't be an excuse for low turnout. "You can't complain about, 'Oh they are trying to mess with us or trying to take away our vote,' but then half of us or more don't even bother to try to vote," he said on the Yolanda Adams Morning Show. - Macon Telegraph, 10/21/14
Now Nunn has struck the right balance with Obama on the campaign:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/...
The Republican Senate candidate in Georgia, like Republican candidates in most other competitive races, calculated that the surest road to victory was to tie his opponent, in this case Democrat Michelle Nunn, to President Obama.
“The president himself said, ‘make no mistake, these policies are on the ballot,’” Perdue said in a TV ad last week. As a photo of Obama with Nunn filled the screen, Perdue continued: “That’s why he wants her in the Senate.”
It was typical of Perdue’s campaign strategy of trying to run against Obama. What was not typical was Nunn’s response: She ran a spot of her own, featuring the same photo of herself with Obama.
“Have you seen this picture?” she asks viewers. “It’s the one David Perdue has used to try and attack me in this campaign.” As the image shifts to a photo of George H.W. Bush with his hand on her shoulder, Nunn goes on: “But what he doesn’t tell you is that it was taken at an event honoring President Bush, who I worked for as CEO of his Points of Light Foundation. Throughout my career I’ve been able to work with Republicans and Democrats, and that’s the same approach I’ll bring to the U.S. Senate.”
Nunn, daughter of the legendary Senate Democratic centrist Sam Nunn, may yet lose the race. But she is doing far better than expected in her run despite the hostile year and terrain for Democrats. A big reason for this: She’s showing authenticity and courage at a time when both are in short supply among Democratic candidates.
Nunn’s comfort in her own skin is in sharp contrast to other Democrats on the ballot, who are making awkward maneuvers to distance themselves from Obama and much of the Democratic Party. - Washington Post, 10/21/14
Republican and Tea Party groups are scared of higher black turnout and are pleading to their supporters to get out the vote for the proud outsourcer:
http://thehill.com/...
Tea Party Patriots Citizen Fund is endorsing businessman David Perdue (R) for Georgia Senate, overlooking conservative dissatisfaction with the candidate because the state could be key to control of the Senate.
In a release shared first with The Hill, Tea Party Patriots President Jenny Beth Martin says that Perdue is "the clear choice, and there's too much at stake."
"If this red Senate seat goes blue, the path to a majority gets a lot steeper and narrower. [Senate Majority Leader] Harry Reid [D-Nev.] would likely keep his job and his nuclear option."
Martin calls on the conservative grassroots in Georgia "not just to vote for [Perdue], but to knock on doors for him.
"Make phone calls. Drive a friend to the polls. These midterm elections are so critical to the future of the Republic, and it's time for Georgians to answer the call," she says. - The Hill, 10/23/14
Speaking of endorsements, Carter picked up two big newspaper endorsements:
http://clatl.com/...
Jason Carter has vision — something that's been lacking ever since Republicans took control. In his time in the Georgia Senate and on the campaign trail, Carter's been a smart voice for progressive policies including preventing thousands of students from losing their HOPE Scholarships. Like Barnes before him, Carter can actually paint a picture of what the state should look like in four years. The attorney and Candler Park resident wants to restore education funding, give residents of Fulton and DeKalb counties the chance to vote on a smaller sales tax proposal to fund transit, and help college students earn technical skills needed to work in growing industries. He's young and energetic, and he has bold ideas for modernizing Georgia.
There are holes in his platform, to be sure. He supported the asinine "Guns Everywhere" bill. And where Carter will actually find all the cash to pay for his proposals remains to be seen.
Giving Carter the keys to the governor's office would bring much-needed checks and balances to state government, which is currently — and will for some time — be controlled entirely by Republicans. This mix could make for some messy legislative sessions marked by vetoes and other political brinksmanship. There could even be gridlock between the legislative and executive branches. We invite the shit show. Let there be open debate and disagreements about policy, and let the two sides meet in the middle if need be. The state needs this. Georgia needs Jason Carter. There is no better candidate. - Creative Loafing Atlanta, 10/23/14
http://www.savannahtribune.com/...
Jason Carter promises to lead the effort to redirect Georgia. He promises to invest in small businesses and the middle class. He says that smarter tax policies and other incentives will attract businesses searching for a new home and will reassure workers and employers that we are committed to creating new jobs. He has proposed initiatives to expand benefits for small businesses, letting them have access to the same job-creation incentives given to big corporations.
Our state needs policies that encourage innovation, and Carter plans to adopt an innovative strategy to encourage startup businesses and support their growth. It is time to stop the migration of Georgia’s brightest and more promising startup companies, along with some of our brightest students to other states. Carter says that Georgia must retain its home-grown talent, adopt a regulatory and tax environment that attracts capital, and foster a statewide network that connects startups with capital, entrepreneurs, universities, and other valuable resources.
Jason Carter is right when he says that if we are going build a more prosperous and promising Georgia, we must start with education. He promises to restore the billions of dollars that have been cut from public education, resulting in teachers being furloughed, larger class sizes, and less individual attention for struggling students. He says that the cuts in education have come at a time when many Georgia families are paying more in property taxes because dozens of districts raised local property taxes to make up for the State’s cuts to education.
Jason is a ninth-generation Georgian. He is the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter. He and his wife Kate, a public high school teacher, have two young sons and live in Atlanta. He is an attorney who has fought to protect voting rights and challenged an overtly partisan reapportionment of the Georgia State Senate. He serves on the boards of several charitable and public interest organizations including Hands on Atlanta, the DeKalb Women’s Resource Center to End Domestic Violence, and the Georgia Bar Foundation. He is a member of the Board of Trustees of the Carter Center and the Emory University Board of Visitors.
We support Jason Carter for Governor. He could help build a better Georgia. - The Savannah Tribune, 10/22/14
We have some great chances here in Georgia. Click here to donate and get involved with Nunn and Carter's campaigns:
http://www.michellenunn.com/
https://carterforgovernor.com/