Democrat Mike Michaud
On behalf of the League of Conservation Voters, PPP takes another look at Maine's gubernatorial contest and finds what most recent polls have found: A close and unpredictable contest between Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democrat Mike Michaud. PPP finds the two deadlocked 40-40, with left-leaning independent Eliot Cutler taking 17.
LePage is not popular: PPP finds him with an upside down 43-53 favorability rating. Michaud and his allies have been running ads reminding voters why they dislike LePage so much: One ad describes how, among other things, LePage twice compared the IRS to the Nazis and told the NAACP to kiss his butt. Another spot features LePage's infamous remark, "If you want a good education, go to private schools. If you can't afford it, tough luck."
The problem is that national Republicans have been hitting Michaud on the airwaves, arguing that he wants to help undocumented immigrants at the expense of the middle class. PPP finds Michaud with a 47-46 rating, better than LePage but not where he wants to be. By comparison, Cutler has a 39-38 rating.
Back in 2010 Cutler came very close to beating LePage, but there's no doubt that he's holding Michaud back. In a two-way race, Michaud would lead LePage by a more comfortable 49-44. The good news for Democrats is that Cutler has all but stopped running ads, and if he fades Michaud should benefit. The bad news is that Cutler is too well known to completely crater, and he can still take enough votes to give LePage a second term. The Republicans are well aware of this, and they've been sending mailers to Democratic voters to boost Cutler and Michaud's expense. Right now it looks like Cutler's decline could give Michaud some much-needed room to grow, but in a race like this nothing is certain at all.
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