This will probably be the last of my diaries on Measure 91 before the election. As things stand now, there are three factors which make me very optimistic for its passage: endorsements, polls, and the campaigns.
Endorsements: When I last posted on this subject we had the endorsements of several prominent leaders like Congressman Earl Blumenauer along with a number of former prosecutors and law enforcement officers, civic organizations like the City Club of Portland, and newspapers like the Oregonian and the NY Times. Since then Senator Jeff Merkley has added his qualified support, as was reported in another recent diary. John Urquhart, the sheriff of Washington's largest county, has gone as far as to appear in a TV ad for it. This has led to much squealing from the Oregon Sheriff's Association, the main group supporting the No on 91 campaign. Other newspaper endorsements have come in from the Medford Mail-Tribune and Portland's two weekly newspapers The Mercury and Willamette Week. In addition to the State Democratic Party, we have won the support of the Multnomah Democratic Party, which means when they distribute cards with their recommendations to county residents, those cards urge a "yes" vote for 91.
The polls: There are a lot of incumbent office holders running for election this year who would kill to have the kind of polling that Measure 91 has had so far. Not a single poll shows it trailing. The two latest polls from DHM Research and Survey USA show the measure ahead by double-digits, 52-41 and 48-37 respectively. Check the cross-tabs on the Survey USA poll. I think you will find them interesting.
The campaigns: First of all, this is one of those rare cases where the progressive side has far more resources than the conservatives. Yes on 91 has collected around $3,000,000, compared to just under $200,000 for no on 91. Yes on 91 TV spots are airing on a regular basis and we have money for a decent GOTV operation.
If that wasn't enough the No on 91 folks have managed to seriously embarrass themselves a couple of times. The first you can read about in my first Measure 91 diary. More recently, No on 91 spokesweasel, Dr. Ron Schwerzler had to retract a statement he made during a televised debate claiming that children in Colorado had died from ingesting marijuana-laced edibles. Not the first sensationalist lie they have put out there, but at least this time some journalists were doing their job and caught them at it.
Barring any last minute game changers, I am really happy about the way the campaign is looking.
9:17 PM PT: Wow! First time in the Community Spotlight! Thank you, Rescue Rangers! Just thought that I would add that the Yes on 91 can still use volunteers for GOTV phone banking.