Very interesting!
In a poll done October 15-22, BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy found democrat Doug Owens ahead of republican Mia Love 45.8% to 42.2%. The poll of 238 voters in Utah's fourth congressional district shows that Owens is following retiring democratic Rep. Jim Matheson's pathway to victory in Utah's red shaded swingy 4th.
When we break down the results still further, it appears that Owens is taking nearly all the votes of Democrats in the 4th District (97%) and is capturing a meaningful number of Republicans (22%, compared to Mia Love’s 66% of Republicans). The number of independents in our 4th District sample is too small for reliable conclusions, but Owens may have a lead among those voters, too. For Owens to win, he will need to follow Jim Matheson’s pattern of overwhelming victory among Democrats and solid support from independents and Republicans. In 2012, for example, the Utah Colleges Exit Poll showed that Matheson won 94% of Democrats, 62% of Independents, and 23% of Republicans in the district. Owens’s performance in the current poll parallels that result very closely.
A previous poll by
Dana Jones and Associates for UtahPolicy.com released October 13 had Love up by 9 points.
BYU's pollsters conclude:
From our vantage point, the 4th District race is worth watching carefully. Despite Mia Love’s considerable fundraising and name recognition advantage, this poll should be read as an indicator that the race is still competitive. We want to emphasize again that these results have limitations, given the nature of our sampling strategy, but we do not see Love or Owens with a significant lead. It is too early to tell whether it will come down to the 768 voters who gave Matheson a win over Love in 2012, but our evidence indicates that as of late October, the 4th District’s 2014 outcome is still in doubt. We expect that the campaign for the small number of undecided voters in the district will be intense.