FYI, still a tight race here:
http://news.mpbn.net/...
The Pan Atlantic SMS poll shows Republican Gov. Paul LePage and Democratic challenger Mike Michaud now running neck and neck, with about 40 percent of the vote. Of the remaining 20 percent of voters, nearly 13 percent are supporting Cutler and just over 7 percent are still undecided. That's a gain of about 6 percent for Michaud over the firm's previous poll, and a loss of about 6 percent for Cutler.
The telephone poll was conducted between Oct. 15 and Oct. 21. It included a randomly selected sample of 400 Maine residents, who describe themselves as "very" or "somewhat" likely to vote. It has a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
Its results differ significantly from another poll by the Maine Sunday Telegram, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center and released over the weekend. That poll showed LePage ahead of Michaud 45 percent to 35 percent, with Cutler garnering 16 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 3.8 percent. - MPBN News, 10/28/14
And of course the RGA is trying to help Cutler spoil this election again:
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/...
If a new ad is any indication, the Republican Governors Association wants to focus on Maine Independent gubernatorial candidate Eliot Cutler (pictured, left) and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rep. Mike Michaud (ME) than Republican Maine Gov. Paul LePage (pictured, right).
The new ad released by the RGA on Tuesday hits Michaud for, when he was in the state legislature, a vote new tax legislation concerning social security.
"It was such a bad idea that then-Gov. Angus King vetoed it," the voiceover in the ad said. "No wonder independent King now endorses Eliot Cutler."
The ad then pivots back to attacking Michaud on immigration policy. The ad makes no mention of LePage. That might be because recent polling has suggested that Cutler's presence in the race is actually hurting Michaud more than LePage. A Public Policy Polling survey sponsored by the Maine Conservation Voters Action Fund found that 55 percent of Cutler supporters said their second choice would be Michaud while just 35 percent said their second choice could be LePage. - TPM, 10/28/14
While Senator Angus King (I. ME) may have endorsed Cutler, he doesn't like how the RGA is trying to dupe voters:
http://www.pressherald.com/...
King may be supporting Cutler, but he’s not thrilled that he’s used in the RGA ad. After all, King is familiar with the tactic. In the 2012 U.S. Senate race, Maine Freedom an outside group – ironically with ties to the RGA — attempted to defeat King by dividing the Democratic and center-left vote by running an ad touting Democratic candidate Cynthia Dill. Dill was running a distant third at the time and Republican candidate Charlie Summers was attempting to chip into King’s lead.
At the time, King called the 2012 ad deceptive. Even though he’s supporting Cutler this year, he had similar reaction to the new RGA ad.
Reached by phone Tuesday, King said, “I think these ads aren’t honest. They’re trying to promote one candidate when they’re really trying to promote someone else. It’s a left-handed way of campaigning. … I just think it’s one more indication of where our politics has gone. We can’t have an open and honest discussion of the issues. Instead we’re trying to trick people.”
He added, “Needless to say, I don’t like being used in it, but it’s a free country and my words were made publicly so I suppose they can use them.”
King has not appeared in any ads for Cutler’s campaign since September. He noted that he didn’t cut the ad, but the Cutler campaign used footage from the endorsement announcement.
“They basically used the materials from my public statements and created the ad,” he said. “They didn’t ask me to do anything more than that.” - Portland Press Herald, 10/28/14
The reality is Cutler is helping throw this race to LePage:
http://news.mpbn.net/...
At Bowdoin College, Political Science Professor Michael Franz says the stakes for the Blaine House have never been higher, and voters should be prepared for a media onslaught. "Well I think they're going to see pretty much everything thrown at the wall," Franz says.
That's because Republicans are depending on Cutler voters to dilute Michaud's support. The Michaud campaign, meanwhile, is attempting to convince Cutler supporters to defect, or risk re-electing LePage. And Cutler has called on Michaud to release his supporters so they can vote for him.
Franz says this is what Mainers can expect when a traditional two-way race turns into a three-way contest.
"So it becomes about either a sort of paranoia on the part of the Democrats that Cutler is going to spoil their efforts, probably joy on the part of the Cutler people that they're this relevant at the end of the campaign, and, meanwhile, a sit-back-and-watch from the LePage people as Michaud and Cutler sort of battle out the LePage vote," Franz says.
"People are doing the exact same thing that they did four years ago and they're going to have the same result," says Cutler Campaign Manager Ted O'Meara. O'Meara says Cutler made a late surge four years ago, and almost beat Lepage - and could do it again this time. "So instead of thinking how to vote strategically, voters should really just vote for who they think is the best candidate," he says.
But University of Maine Political Science Professor Mark Brewer says that, despite's Cutler's efforts, a certain segment of his supporters will fall into the "anybody-but-LePage" camp and will vote strategically. "That's the portion of the electorate where this kind of message about viability is going to really have the big payoff, I think," Brewer says. - MPBN News, 10/27/14
And Cutler doesn't have a shot in Hell of coming anywhere near close to taking on LePage this time:
https://thetippingpoint.bangordailynews.com/...
Setting aside the fact that there has been no increase in support for Cutler in the polls, (even after the debates that he argued would turn things around for him), and the fact that Cutler’s campaign has basically stopped campaigning, at least on television (although Republicans seem to have picked up some of the slack), just the simple math of the election shows that he can’t win.
Polling aggregators currently show a deadlocked race between Congressman Mike Michaud and Governor Paul LePage, with one or the other up by less than a couple percentage points and Cutler in a distant third place (and those results include today’s PPH/UNH poll with a statistically significant lead for LePage).
In 2010, at this point in the race, Cutler was already tied or ahead of Democratic nominee Libby Mitchell in the polls. Michaud is obviously not in that position and is a much stronger candidate with more money and support than Mitchell had in 2010. There’s nothing to indicate that there will be any movement from Michaud to Cutler, but even if we assume that some game-changing event will occur and drive Michaud down to 19%, Mitchell’s final result in 2010, and every one of those voters go to Cutler, he would still lose handily to LePage.
In fact, even this is overstating the case for Cutler. According to data from the Secretary of State’s office, as of Friday 53,032 voters have already returned their absentee ballots. With a bit more than 500,000 voters expected to cast ballots for governor this year (based on turnout numbers from previous gubernatorial elections) that’s a full tenth of the electorate that has already voted. Another 36,853 voters have also requested but not yet returned their ballots – their votes may already be cast and in the mail as well.
The political parties and outside groups supporting their candidates have been promoting early voting (and registered Democrats currently make up a plurality of returned ballots). Cutler, on the other hand, has explicitly asked his supporters and those who might lean in his direction not to vote early. It’s reasonable to think that there are far more votes already banked for Michaud than for the independent. - Bangor Daily News, 10/26/14
And Michaud's supporters are reaching out to Cutler's people urging them to dump Cutler:
http://www.wcsh6.com/...
Michaud's backers unveiled a new television ad that calls on Cutler supporters to back Michaud. The fear is that the Democratic vote will be split among Cutler and Michaud. Recent polls show LePage and Michaud in a close race, with Cutler far behind.
Several voters who said they backed Cutler in the last governor's race will not be doing it again this year.
"Anyone who is voting for Cutler, who does not want LePage, is in fact choosing to give away a vote, which ought to go to Mike Michaud this year," said voter Jackie Satoris. - MCSH, 10/27/14
I think a good portion of Cutler supporters will come to their senses but we have to GOTV heavily for this race. Click here to donate and get involved with Michaud's campaign:
http://www.michaud2014.com/