Mark Schauer, working hard to rid us of the plague that is Rick Snyder.
New poll out of Michigan, one of millions of polls, but
this one is particularly noteworthy. Why? Because it gives us insight into what happens when "likely voter" models run into "actual voters" early vote.
First the toplines:
With less than a week before the Nov. 4 election, Gov. Rick Snyder has only a two-point, 45%-43%, lead over Democrat Mark Schauer, according to an exclusive 600-person poll of likely voters taken Oct. 26-28 by EPIC-MRA for the Free Press, WXYZ-TV and their media polling partners. Nine percent of respondents said they still are undecided, and 3% percent said they are voting for third-party candidates.
Among those 9% undecided, however, the partisan leanings of 8% are toward Democrats and 1% toward Republicans.
Account for those leans among undecided voters, and it's a tied race, 46-46. Last time the pollster, EPIC-MRA, was in the field about 10 days ago, they had incumbent Republican Gov. Rick Snyder leading 47-39. So how did Democrats suddenly close an 8-point gap? They probably didn't. The pollster was forced to count people who already voted.
[T]he Democrats' strategy to increase turnout by getting people to vote by absentee ballot is a big driver.
Those people were getting screened out in previous surveys because they weren't part of anyone's "likely voter" model—they weren't white enough, old enough, or didn't vote in 2010. But Democratic GOTV efforts are making a real difference.
If this poll is to be taken at face value, we're tied, but still slightly behind. Not a bad way to look at Tuesday's election since that appears to be the norm across the board—tied-ish, but slightly behind. So how do you overcome that? GOTV like your life depends on it.
GOTV anyone and everyone can: pester your friends, family, co-workers, milkman, paperboy, and everyone else around you to vote.
It's now or never, give $3 to help get Democrats over the line.
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What are YOU doing to GOTV these last few days of this cycle?