Happy Halloween to you all. Up here, trick-or-treating doesn't generally exist; the holiday is mainly just used as an excuse for teenagers and young adults to throw costume parties. ;) But nature is certainly trying to help with the ambiance.
In the interest of avoiding treating random field reports as definite fact, when we got a report of increasing gas emissions at the vent, I didn't treat what seemed like increasing number of pollution events to it. When we got the superspike in Höfn the other day, I mentioned the report only in passing. But it just keeps getting harder not to believe that there hasn't actually been an increase in emissions - or at least something, be it weather patterns or whatnot, which is making the pollution problem worse.
It even visibly even looks worse, like it's gearing up for Halloween.
But maybe there's an explanation. Let's pull out the pictures, the news, and the analysis below the fold.
(Credit: mbl / RAX)
No, that's not a painting. That's the Mist rolling through the highlands. Here's another.
(Credit: Elín Björk Jónasdóttir)
And another:
(Credit: Elín Björk Jónasdóttir)
After a couple days with little pollution Reykjavík was hit by 1600 µg/m³, the worst yet:
I didn't even think to check the meters until my ex's mother started complaining about breathing problems (she has less than 50% lung function and is thus among the "sensitive" groups most vulnerable to the pollution). My ex got some pain in his chest and I felt like I had a slight cold - but again, you never know what you can credit to the pollution and what's just random.
Of course, this was nothing compared to what happened in Akureyri yesterday:
Akureyri, the largest city in Iceland outside the capitol area, went under an unforecast day-long pollution spike, with half the day at over 2500 µg/m³ and a peak around 4000 µg/m³ on the net-connected meter, with other meters up to 6000.
(Credit: Skapti Hallgrímsson)
Mail service was shut down. Boats stayed in port. 40 thousand SMS messages were sent, both in Icelandic and English, to warn people in the area. A bus was sent to ferry children on a field trip back so their parents could pick them up and keep them indoors. Perhaps most notably, the only hospital in the region was forced to shut off its air circulation system and raise the temperature. Yes, doing so is harmful to critically ill patients. But pumping in gas that will significantly reduce their lung function is even more dangerous.
(Credit: Skapti Hallgrímsson)
It seems like bloody everywhere got pollution levels in the thousands.
(Credit: Skapti Hallgrímsson)
(Credit: Skapti Hallgrímsson)
(Credit: Skapti Hallgrímsson)
What's causing this? Ármann Höskuldsson, who previously gave us the confusing statement that flow rates from The-Growing-Lava-Field-Formerly-Known-As-Holuhraun-Which-Will-Not-Be-Named-Anytime-Soon have remained constant but then estimated them at way below the scientific committee estimate (50-100 m³/s versus 230-350 m³/s), has clarified his previous statement. He says that flow rates have been very stable since 6 october at around 100 m³/s, but were higher in the beginning of the eruption. According to him, when the eruption began with higher lava flow rates, the same amount of gas was pushed higher into the atmosphere. With the lower magma flow rate, the gas remains closer to the surface. This is then combined with winter weather conditions that tend to trap the pollution. "This problem only increases with time and it's unlikely that that eruption will kick back up and whip the toxins back up higher."
(Credit: mbl / RAX)
(Credit: mbl / RAX)
(Credit: mbl / RAX)
Ármann mentions that they've looked up all volcanic eruptions that have ever been seismically monitored, and the quanity of large earthquakes being experienced has never been witnessed before. He also points out that this isn't just the biggest lava eruption in Iceland since Laki - it's the biggest in the world since Laki (Ed: I assume he's considering Puʻu ʻŌʻō's 30 year event to not be a single eruption). Pointing to the temperature of the lava - 200 degrees hotter than in most eruptions in Iceland - he says literally that this suggests that it's "tearing the roof of the heart of fire itself", that this is coming straight from the hot spot in the upper mantle to the surface.
(Credit: mbl / RAX)
(Credit: mbl / RAX)
The lower altitude emissions of gas that Ármann suggests, if accurate, would be good for the arctic and Europe. However, even a lower rate of accumulation is still a rate of accumulation, and the satellite SO2 images keep showing more and more:
Here's a side by side of current levels versus the roughly same time last year (picking dates that have roughly similar map coverage):
The map sure looks like there's been a lot of accumulation in the deep arctic itself... but unfortunately, due to poor coverage, we can't see that now. When light returns to the arctic, we'll start to get a better sense of just how much is there.
So, about those ice cauldrons ringing Bárðarbunga - just how much geothermal energy release below the glacier is required to melt them? The scientific committee has an answer: several hundred megawatts. While this is orders of magnitude less than the terawatts being released by the lava over Holuhraun, as it represents heat transfer by moving water / steam through a very large amount of rock, it's still a pretty huge amount of energy at play. Still, it's small enough that the meltwater can enter the Jökulsá without causing a flood. Which would certainly be the desirable alternative to it accumulating under the glacier.
Lastly, have a new flyover video, courtesy of Ragnar Axelsson. :)
Update: Just got back from a Jónas Sigurðsson concert. I figured that with the fact that it was indoors and the pollution is low right now that I wouldn't have any problems with a "party night", but my lungs are bugging me again. This never used to happen before. I don't think I fully recover from the pollution events as quickly as I'd like to imagine that I do :Þ It'll be nice to have a week in December with my parents in Canada to give my respiratory system some "time off" (wow, leaving Iceland for some fresh air? That's a change...)
With how I feel now, I'm wondering if I'll make it all the way through Airwaves, which is one of if not the most-looked-forward-to events for me every year. :( This mist better not ruin the festival for me! #PollutedFirstWorldProblems